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2014 Fall Women's PCC's

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 24 21 45
2 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 30 37 67
3 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 55 52 107
4 Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 63 62 125
5 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 73 57 130
6 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 87 74 161
7 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 76 89 165
8 California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 116 LOP 138 LOP 254 LOP
9 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley CALIFORNIA 140 140 280
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 5 4 1 24 Maeve White '17
Sarah Lucas '18
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1 2 2 3 2 3 1 2 4 3 2 1 2 30 Simone Staff '18 [1-14]
Ginger Luckey '16 [1-8]
Madisson Thomas '17 [9-14]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 4 5 6 4 2 5 4 3 4 3 2 1 7 5 55 Kendall Sanson '15
Hollis Barth '16
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 3 6 7 5 7 6 5 5 3 2 5 3 3 3 63 Francesca Cappellini '16 [1-14]
Courtney Newell '17 [1-8]
Melissa Shadden '17 [9-14]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 8 4 3 3 5 3 2 6 8 6 6 6 5 8 73 Cecilia Jansson '15 [1-14]
Jazlyne Rojas '17 [1-5]
Louise Currie '18 [6-14]
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 7 2 5 7 4 4 6 4 5 7 8 4 6 7 76 Sunny Scarbrough '17
Kathrine Schiller '18
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 5 8 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 8 4 8 2 6 87 Elizabeth Hays '17 [1-14]
Kylie Sullivan '17 [1-2, 6-8, 11-14]
Laura Roudebush '18 [3-5, 9-10]
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 6 7 8 8 6 7 8 8 7 5 7 7 8 4 116 LOP Alicia Ward '18 [1-14]
Lauren Orloff '16 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Claudia Marino '17 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley CALIFORNIA DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 140 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 2 1 1 1 5 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 21 Elena Vandenberg '18
Haley Fox '18
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 1 3 5 4 3 2 2 1 3 2 5 1 2 37 Olivia Godfrey '17
Ellen Gable '17
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 6 4 2 2 3 2 3 3 7 4 4 2 6 4 52 Olivia Gebelein '15 [1-14]
Nicole Bosetti '15 [1-8, 10-14]
Caroline Carney '16 [9]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 5 5 4 3 5 1 4 4 4 5 5 6 3 3 57 Caitlin Schadt '18
Madeline Anzivino '15
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 4 6 5 4 6 4 6 5 3 2 3 3 4 7 62 Francesca Dana '18 [1-14]
Sydney Munson '18 [1-8]
Madeleine Landry '18 [9-14]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 3 7 6 2 6 5 6 6 7 7 4 7 6 74 Sarah Wyman '17
Justina Leo '15
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 5 6 6 7 5 5 89 Anna Rubino '16
Bridget Luckey '18
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 DNF DNS DNS 138 LOP Kylee Walterman '17 [1-14]
Casey Weisenseel '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Ivy Binns '16 [3-4, 7-14]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley CALIFORNIA DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 140 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley CALIFORNIA1414141414141414141414141414
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers1818181818181818181818181818
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows1111111111111111111111111111
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters1717171717171717171717171717
Santa Clara UniversitySanta Clara University Broncos1616161616161616161616161616
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans1010101010101010101010101010
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal1515151515151515151515151515
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins1313131313131313131313131313
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos1212121212121212121212121212

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley CALIFORNIA1414141414141414141414141414
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers1818181818181818181818181818
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows1111111111111111111111111111
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters1717171717171717171717171717
Santa Clara UniversitySanta Clara University Broncos1616161616161616161616161616
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans1010101010101010101010101010
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal1515151515151515151515151515
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins1313131313131313131313131313
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos1212121212121212121212121212
School / Team SkipperCrew
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach Sunny Scarbrough '17 Kathrine Schiller '18
49ers Anna Rubino '16 Bridget Luckey '18
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Alicia Ward '18 [1-14] Lauren Orloff '16 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13-14]
Claudia Marino '17 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Otters Kylee Walterman '17 [1-14] Casey Weisenseel '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Ivy Binns '16 [3-4, 7-14]
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Francesca Cappellini '16 [1-14] Courtney Newell '17 [1-8]
Melissa Shadden '17 [9-14]
Broncos Francesca Dana '18 [1-14] Sydney Munson '18 [1-8]
Madeleine Landry '18 [9-14]
Stanford University Stanford University Maeve White '17 Sarah Lucas '18
Cardinal Elena Vandenberg '18 Haley Fox '18
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley No Show No Show
CALIFORNIA No Show No Show
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Elizabeth Hays '17 [1-14] Kylie Sullivan '17 [1-2, 6-8, 11-14]
Laura Roudebush '18 [3-5, 9-10]
Bruins Sarah Wyman '17 Justina Leo '15
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Simone Staff '18 [1-14] Ginger Luckey '16 [1-8]
Madisson Thomas '17 [9-14]
Gauchos Olivia Godfrey '17 Ellen Gable '17
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Cecilia Jansson '15 [1-14] Jazlyne Rojas '17 [1-5]
Louise Currie '18 [6-14]
Rainbows Caitlin Schadt '18 Madeline Anzivino '15
University of Southern California University of Southern California Kendall Sanson '15 Hollis Barth '16
Trojans Olivia Gebelein '15 [1-14] Nicole Bosetti '15 [1-8, 10-14]
Caroline Carney '16 [9]

Conditions — 10/25/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 73%  ·  Pressure 1017.5 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.4 kn
avg  ·  max 9.9 kn
Gusts to 23.9 kn
From SW (219°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover48% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1017.5 hPa Rain0.08 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 10 kn · N 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Stanford: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.19 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →