Stanford University '17
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 64.90 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.107 rating points from 43 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.58 (fleet 3.56) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 59–14 (81%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 10–4 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 7–2 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 25–1 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 17–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (73 matches) the record is 59–14 against 59.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-25 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.01 | 3.00 | 10–4 | 10.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2016-02-27 | 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.89 | 1.75 | 7–2 | 7.9 | −1.14 | 0.7 | 95% |
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | skipper | 3.07 | 6.07 | 18–0 | 14.6 | ≥+3.00 | 5.4 | 2% |
| 2015-02-28 | 2015 McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.74 | 4.28 | 7–1 | 5.7 | +1.54 | 1.3 | 23% |
| 2014-02-22 | Frank Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 2.43 | 1.27 | 17–7 | 20.8 | −1.17 | 3.4 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Pacific Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 2.6 | 3.31 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.1 | 4.06 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.1 | 3.93 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.9 | 3.23 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.7 | 3.62 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.6 | 2.75 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.8 | 4.48 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.4 | 3.03 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 10.7 | 1.42 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.0 | 3.06 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 2 | 13.5 | 1.49 |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.6 | 2.33 |
| 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Crew | A | 16 | 9.9 | — |
| St. Mary's College of MD Fall Interconference | Skipper | B | 18 | 11.3 | 2.46 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.2 | 2.93 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.4 | 3.31 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.6 | 3.65 |
| PCCSC Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 1.5 | 4.22 |
| Duplin Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 100% | — |
| Bryson Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 1.7 | 2.65 |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.2 | 2.61 |
| 2015 McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 88% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.0 | 3.39 |
| Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | C | 9 | 2.3 | 4.35 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 12.0 | 2.28 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 18 | 7.6 | — |
| 2014 Fall Women's PCC's Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 1.7 | 3.98 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 8.5 | 1.92 |
| PCCSC Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.5 | 3.72 |
| Frank Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 30 | 60% | — |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.1 | 1.64 |
| Bryson | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.0 | 3.08 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.2 | 3.25 |
| Stoney Burke | Crew | A | 9 | 7.1 | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.1 | 2.58 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
