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Women's Pacific Coast Championship

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 39 57 96
2 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 48 51 99
3 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 48 72 120
4 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 73 58 131
5 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 74 76 150
6 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 113 57 170
7 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 60 113 173
8 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 99 82 181
9 Banana Slug's Banana Slug's Banana Slug's 121 109 230
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 3 6 1 4 3 1 1 2 3 1 4 1 2 5 39 Maeve White '17
Meg Gerli '19
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 2 1 2 3 1 6 5 5 5 4 2 5 1 3 48 Simone Staff '18
Ellen Gable '17
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 4 1 2 4 6 4 3 3 4 4 2 3 3 3 2 48 Grace Yakutis '20
Melissa Schem '18
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 4 5 5 1 2 5 2 7 9 6 5 2 5 1 60 Elizabeth Hansen '19 [1-15]
Sarah Paulsen '20 [1-8, 15]
Olivia Macdonald '19 [9-10]
Megan Grosspietsch '20 [11-14]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 6 5 3 8 7 6 2 4 1 2 5 1 7 8 8 73 Caitlin Schadt '18 [1-15]
Gianna Bailey '18 [1-6, 13-15]
Annika Garrett '19 [7-12]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 7 9 4 3 2 5 4 6 3 1 7 8 4 7 4 74 Alyson Crowley '20
Helen Payne '19
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 8 6 7 7 5 7 8 8 9 6 3 7 8 4 6 99 Natalie Hopper '19
Meagan Montalto '20
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 5 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 8 9 6 6 9 113 Leah Ford '19
Kylie Sullivan '17
Banana Slug's Banana Slug's Banana Slug's 9 7 8 6 8 9 9 9 8 8 9 6 9 9 7 121
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 TOT Sailors
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 2 1 1 3 5 3 4 4 4 7 1 1 6 8 51 Olivia Godfrey '17 [1-14]
Julia Downey '20 [15]
Sarah Scoffone '19 [1-14]
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 4 5 7 4 1 2 1 5 5 3 5 2 5 6 57 Martina Sly '19
Madeline Bubb '20
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 7 3 2 1 4 9 3 2 6 1 2 5 4 5 57 Laura Roudebush '18
Maddy Kuhn '20
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 4 1 7 9 2 6 1 2 6 2 4 8 3 1 2 58 Louise Currie '18 [1-15]
Danielle Ahir '20 [1-10, 13-14]
Megan Zamzow '19 [11-12, 15]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 7 5 2 4 5 8 5 6 1 1 8 7 7 3 3 72 Christina Gasparich '19
Lorea Mendiguren '20
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 8 3 6 5 7 3 6 8 8 3 6 4 6 2 1 76 Grace Carrick '18
Sophie Ellison '19
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 6 6 4 3 8 7 4 7 3 8 5 3 4 7 7 82 Erika Barth '16
Chieko Imai '20
Banana Slug's Banana Slug's Banana Slug's 5 8 9 8 6 2 7 9 9 9 2 9 8 9 9 109
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 9 9 8 6 9 9 8 5 7 7 9 6 9 8 4 113 Whitney Ziesing '19 [1-6, 11-15]
Sarah Paulsen '20 [7-10]
Megan Grosspietsch '20 [1-4, 7-10, 15]
Olivia Macdonald '19 [5-6]
Sarah Paulsen '20 [11-12]
Melissa Jaffe '20 [13-14]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.210+0.21
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears33557799224410108
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang1133557799224410
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows881133557799224
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans99224410108811335
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal22441010881133557
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins44101088113355779
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons55779922441010881
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos10108811335577992
Banana Slug'sBanana Slug's Banana Slug's77992244101088113

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears44101088113355779
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang22441010881133557
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows99224410108811335
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans1133557799224410
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal33557799224410108
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins55779922441010881
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons10108811335577992
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos77992244101088113
Banana Slug'sBanana Slug's Banana Slug's881133557799224

Conditions — 04/15/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 52%  ·  Pressure 1014.3 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.7 kn
avg  ·  max 8.5 kn
Gusts to 20.2 kn
From WNW (289°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover4% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1014.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 9 kn · W 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at UC San Diego: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.03 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.12
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.44 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC San Diego by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (21 labelled days at UC San Diego).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →