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# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 19 16 35
2 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 30 22 52
3 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 3 37 28 65
4 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 36 50 86
5 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 63 51 114
6 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 60 59 119
7 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 71 74 145
8 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 57 101 158
9 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 102 72 174
10 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 81 101 182
11 California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 105 103 208
12 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 121 107 228
13 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 128 126 254
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 1 2 2 4 2 2 1 2 1 2 19 Molly Mckinney '14
Nicolette Obel '17
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 4 4 5 5 30 Maeve White '17
Michelle Catania '16
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 5 1 5 3 5 4 3 1 8 1 36 Ginger Luckey '16
Marina Fennell '17
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 3 3 5 3 1 1 7 9 3 2 3 37 Scott Buckstaff '17
Katie Walker '14
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 6 7 4 6 6 6 6 6 3 7 57 Jennifer Hays '17
Katheryn Bell '16
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 4 6 7 5 4 3 7 7 9 8 60 Keenan Chung '18 [1-6]
Remy Margerum '17 [7-10]
Madisson Thomas '17 [1-6]
Kevin Leddy '17 [7-10]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 7 4 6 10 8 10 2 5 7 4 63 Erica Parker '14
Louise Lehman '14
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 8 8 8 8 7 5 8 9 4 6 71 Kendall Sanson '15
Nicole Bosetti '15
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 9 9 9 7 10 9 5 8 6 9 81 Mike Mccarthy '14
Georgia Cottong '14
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 10 11 10 9 9 11 10 10 11 11 102 Joseph Lausten '18
Kevin Mcmanus '17
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 11 10 11 12 11 8 11 11 10 10 105 Christina Stege '14 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Jacob Garcia '15 [3-4, 7-8]
Claudia Marino '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Kevin Critchlow '16 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 121 Elsa Felgar '16
Cheyenne Wright '16
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 128 Sarah Stowell '14 [1-10]
B Sajani Nanayakkara '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Marissa Huston '17 [3-4, 7-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 3 16 Holly Tullo '17
Noelle Herring '16
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 22 Lily Katz '17 [1-6]
Sarah Mace '14 [7-10]
Mckenzie Wilson '14 [1-6]
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 3 1 2 2 1 3 6 3 6 3 1 28 Yuki Yoshiyasu '16
Daniel Ron '17
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 5 5 5 7 4 3 4 4 9 4 50 Olivia Godfrey '17
Alexandra Levine '16
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 4 7 4 4 5 5 7 3 5 7 51 Sarah Wyman '17
Justina Leo '15
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 6 4 7 5 7 9 5 5 6 5 59 Hayden Christensen '17
Ellen Gable '17
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 7 6 10 6 6 4 8 9 8 8 72 Andreas Balslev '17
Oliver Kunz '15
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 10 9 8 8 9 7 6 7 4 6 74 Hollis Barth '16
Avery Regen '16
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 8 8 6 9 12 13 12 12 12 9 101 Kip Wanaselja '16
Patrick Boyden '14
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 9 10 12 10 11 10 11 11 7 10 101 Janice Wondolleck '15
Kelly Goodman '14
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 12 12 9 11 10 8 10 8 11 12 103 Lauren Orloff '16 [1-2, 5-7]
David Macko '14 [3-4, 8-10]
Casey Weisenseel '15 [1-2, 5-7]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 11 11 11 12 8 11 9 10 13 11 107 Erika Poynter '16 [1-10]
Nusha Hooshdaran '14 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Hannah Alford '17 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 13 10 13 126 Alexandra Labouff '15 [1-10]
Michelle Moua '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Hayley Palmer '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Golden Bears1133557799
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang335577991111
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters224466881010
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans131322446688
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 144668810101212
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 255779911111313
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 366881010121211
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies77991111131322
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins88101012121133
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons121211335577
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 199111113132244
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 210101212113355
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's11111313224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Golden Bears224466881010
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang44668810101212
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters335577991111
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans1133557799
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 155779911111313
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 266881010121211
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 377991111131322
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies88101012121133
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins99111113132244
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons131322446688
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 110101212113355
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 211111313224466
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's121211335577
School / Team SkipperCrew
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Joseph Lausten '18 Kevin Mcmanus '17
Mustang Andreas Balslev '17 Oliver Kunz '15
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Christina Stege '14 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Jacob Garcia '15 [3-4, 7-8]		 Claudia Marino '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Kevin Critchlow '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Otters Lauren Orloff '16 [1-2, 5-7]
David Macko '14 [3-4, 8-10]		 Casey Weisenseel '15 [1-2, 5-7]
Stanford University Stanford University Maeve White '17 Michelle Catania '16
Cardinal 1 Lily Katz '17 [1-6]
Sarah Mace '14 [7-10]		 Mckenzie Wilson '14 [1-6]
Stanford University Stanford University Molly Mckinney '14 Nicolette Obel '17
Cardinal 2 Holly Tullo '17 Noelle Herring '16
Stanford University Stanford University Scott Buckstaff '17 Katie Walker '14
Cardinal 3 Yuki Yoshiyasu '16 Daniel Ron '17
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Jennifer Hays '17 Katheryn Bell '16
Golden Bears Janice Wondolleck '15 Kelly Goodman '14
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Sarah Stowell '14 [1-10] B Sajani Nanayakkara '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Marissa Huston '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Aggies Alexandra Labouff '15 [1-10] Michelle Moua '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Hayley Palmer '17 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Erica Parker '14 Louise Lehman '14
Bruins Sarah Wyman '17 Justina Leo '15
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Elsa Felgar '16 Cheyenne Wright '16
Tritons Erika Poynter '16 [1-10] Nusha Hooshdaran '14 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Hannah Alford '17 [3-4, 7-8]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Ginger Luckey '16 Marina Fennell '17
Gauchos 1 Olivia Godfrey '17 Alexandra Levine '16
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Keenan Chung '18 [1-6]
Remy Margerum '17 [7-10]		 Madisson Thomas '17 [1-6]
Kevin Leddy '17 [7-10]
Gauchos 2 Hayden Christensen '17 Ellen Gable '17
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Mike Mccarthy '14 Georgia Cottong '14
Banana Slug's Kip Wanaselja '16 Patrick Boyden '14
University of Southern California University of Southern California Kendall Sanson '15 Nicole Bosetti '15
Trojans Hollis Barth '16 Avery Regen '16

Conditions — 02/08/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 98%  ·  Pressure 1019.7 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.5 kn
avg  ·  max 11.0 kn
Gusts to 26.2 kn
From SSW (194°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity98% Pressure1019.7 hPa Rain0.19 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn · SW 9 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stanford: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.18 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →