University of Southern California '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.31 (fleet 1.81) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 15–33 (31%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 10–10 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 5–23 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (30 matches) the record is 10–20 against 9.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-03 | 2015 PCCSC Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.77 | 2.83 | 7–5 | 5.5 | +1.06 | 1.2 | 18% |
| 2015-02-28 | 2015 McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 1.94 | 2.58 | 3–5 | 2.4 | +0.64 | 0.3 | 41% |
| 2013-04-05 | PCCSC/Patagonia Team Race Champs | skipper | 0.83 | -2.17 | 0–10 | 1.6 | ≤−3.00 | 2.5 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | A | 5 | 16.0 | 0.87 |
| South Designate | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.3 | 3.54 |
| Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 4.0 | — |
| PJ Wenner Memorial Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.4 | 1.51 |
| PCCSC Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.5 | 1.41 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.4 | 2.49 |
| Bryson Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.4 | 0.48 |
| Long Beach Gold Invite | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.1 | 1.57 |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.6 | 2.61 |
| 2015 PCCSC Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 11 | 54% | — |
| 2015 McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.2 | 1.14 |
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.5 | 2.35 |
| Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | C | 9 | 6.4 | 2.42 |
| 2014 Fall Women's PCC's Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.9 | 2.23 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | A | 9 | 20.9 | 0.63 |
| South 4 | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.8 | 0.95 |
| South 3 | Skipper | B | 5 | 8.2 | 1.43 |
| Peter Wenner Invitational | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.1 | 2.90 |
| PCCSC Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.0 | 1.51 |
| PCCSC Coed Championship | Crew | B | 2 | 6.5 | — |
| Jeff Simon, South 2 | Skipper | A | 7 | 12.3 | 0.79 |
| Jeff Simon, South 1 | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.0 | 1.62 |
| Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 3.2 | — |
| Bryson | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.1 | 1.13 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Pacific Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 3.7 | 2.02 |
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | A | 8 | 13.2 | 1.39 |
| Frosh-Soph Regatta | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.1 | 1.51 |
| Fall Dinghy Championship - JV | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.2 | 1.38 |
| Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | C | 4 | 12.8 | 0.55 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| South 5 Designate | Skipper | A | 10 | 17.0 | 0.64 |
| South 3 | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.0 | 1.04 |
| Port of LA Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 7.0 | — |
| PCCSC/Patagonia Womens Champs Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.6 | -0.86 |
| PCCSC/Patagonia Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 10 | 0% | — |
| PCCSC/Patagonia Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 11.5 | -1.64 |
| Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 28% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Crew | B | 6 | 22.7 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
