University of Southern California '15
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 8.91 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.087 rating points from 228 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.78 (fleet 1.07) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 7–25 (22%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | — | 2–2 |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | — | 5–23 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 2–12 against 2.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-02-28 | 2015 McIntyre Team Race | crew | 1.94 | 3.45 | 2–2 | 1.1 | +1.51 | 1.0 | 25% |
| 2013-04-05 | PCCSC/Patagonia Team Race Champs | crew | 0.83 | -2.17 | 0–10 | 1.6 | ≤−3.00 | 2.5 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | B | 7 | 12.6 | 1.44 |
| South Designate | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.1 | 1.48 |
| Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 4.0 | — |
| PJ Wenner Memorial Rainbow Invite | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.4 | 0.50 |
| PCCSC Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.5 | 1.09 |
| Long Beach Black Invite | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.7 | 0.83 |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinals | Crew | A | 9 | 8.3 | — |
| Bryson Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.6 | 0.14 |
| 2015 McIntyre Team Race | Crew | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.8 | 1.29 |
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | B | 6 | 13.2 | 1.24 |
| Pacific Coast Championship | Crew | C | 9 | 6.4 | — |
| 2014 Fall Women's PCC's Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 3.7 | 1.92 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | B | 9 | 15.2 | 1.32 |
| South 4 | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.5 | 0.71 |
| South 3 | Skipper | A | 5 | 11.0 | 0.94 |
| Peter Wenner Invitational | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.8 | 0.74 |
| PCCSC Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.9 | 0.23 |
| Jeff Simon, South 2 | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.7 | 1.21 |
| Jeff Simon, South 1 | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.2 | 1.47 |
| Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 3.2 | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Pacific Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.6 | -0.13 |
| Stoney Burke | Crew | B | 9 | 11.3 | — |
| Fall Dinghy Championship - JV | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.7 | 1.10 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| StFYC Interconference | Crew | B | 9 | 14.8 | — |
| South 5 Designate | Crew | B | 10 | 9.8 | — |
| South 4 | Crew | B | 4 | 3.8 | — |
| South 3 | Crew | A | 6 | 10.0 | — |
| Port of LA Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 7.0 | — |
| PCCSC/Patagonia Womens Champs Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 5.6 | 0.35 |
| PCCSC/Patagonia Team Race Champs | Crew | TR | 10 | 0% | — |
| PCCSC/Patagonia Coed Championship | Crew | B | 9 | 9.0 | — |
| Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Crew | TR | 18 | 28% | — |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta South 2 | Skipper | A | 6 | 13.8 | -1.08 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta South 1 | Crew | A | 6 | 9.5 | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Frosh-Soph Regatta | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.8 | 0.36 |
| Fall Dinghy PCC's 3 Div | Crew | B | 14 | 14.5 | — |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Crew | B | 14 | 14.5 | — |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Crew | B | 8 | 9.4 | — |
| Sperry Top-Sider Women's Semifinals Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 10.0 | — |
| South 5-Designate | Crew | B | 10 | 4.3 | — |
| South 4 | Crew | B | 6 | 3.3 | — |
| South 3 | Crew | B | 7 | 4.1 | — |
| South 2-Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta | Crew | A, B | 10 | 12.0 | — |
| South 1 | Crew | B | 6 | 4.3 | — |
| Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup Regatta Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 3.4 | — |
| PJ Wenner Rainbow Invite | Crew | B | 11 | 5.8 | — |
| PCCSC Women's Championship Women's | Crew | B | 12 | 2.5 | — |
| PCCSC Dinghy Championship | Crew | B | 6 | 5.3 | — |
| Bryson Women's Women's | Crew | A, B | 14 | 2.6 | — |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke | Crew | A | 9 | 7.9 | — |
| Rose Bowl 2012 | Crew | B | 1 | 8.0 | — |
| Pacific Coast Championships | Crew | B | 4 | 7.5 | — |
| Bryson Women's Women's | Crew | A, B | 15 | 1.9 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
