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# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 17 18 35
2 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 15 26 41
3 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 22 22 44
4 University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1 29 48 77
5 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 30 51 81
6 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 59 26 85
7 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 1 65 21 86
8 California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Channel Islands 1 29 58 87
9 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 44 47 91
10 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 57 59 116
11 University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2 63 64 127
12 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 2 65 69 134
13 Arizona State University Arizona State University Arizona State 1 78 61 139
14 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 3 73 90 163
15 Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 1 85 79 164
16 Arizona State University Arizona State University Arizona State 2 103 80 183
17 California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Channel Islands 2 103 106 209
18 Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 2 95 126 221
19 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 126 101 227
20 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 112 126 238
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 3 2 2 3 1 4 15 Cameron Hutcheson '14
Alexis Tarakjian '15
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1 1 3 4 3 5 17 Ryan Sullivan '12
Krystal Treiberg '12
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 2 4 1 5 4 6 22 Dustin Durant '12
Lauren Hobson '15
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Channel Islands 1 4 11 6 1 6 1 29 Gregory Dair '15
Bianca Barnes '15
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1 10 5 8 2 2 2 29 Colin Kincaid '14
Martha Davis '12
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 7 3 4 8 5 3 30 Kelsey Rupp '12
Carina Prynn '14
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 11 6 5 6 7 9 44 William Edwards '12
Carly Olenick '13
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 13 7 9 13 8 7 57 Erica Parker '14
Emelia Pelliccio '13
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 12 10 11 7 11 8 59 Thomas Preston '12
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2 5 9 13 10 15 11 63 William Larsen '13
Samuel Heller '15
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 2 8 13 10 14 10 10 65 John Olson '14 [1-6]
Rachael Yao '14 [1-2, 5-6]
Nathan Heisey '13 [3-4]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 1 9 12 7 9 14 14 65 Matthew Nguyen '12 [1-6]
Jennifer Lyons '12 [1-2]
Alicia Bernhard '13 [3-6]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 3 6 8 12 12 19 16 73 Alessandro Marazzi Sassoon '14
Daniel Kivlovitz '12
Arizona State University Arizona State University Arizona State 1 16 15 15 11 9 12 78 Steven Cassingham '14
Chad Hardgrove '15
Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 1 15 14 14 17 12 13 85 Catherine Bevens '14
Scott Weller '13
Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 2 17 17 17 16 13 15 95 Kyle Pope '13
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Channel Islands 2 14 18 18 18 18 17 103 Lisa Marchand '12
Maddie Anzivino '15
Arizona State University Arizona State University Arizona State 2 18 16 16 15 17 OCS 103 Michael Garrigan '13 [1-6]
Austin Hodges '14 [1-2]
Elizabeth Champagne '14 [3-6]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 19 19 DNF 19 16 18 112 Zachary Chin '15
Hayley Veal '15
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 126
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1 7 2 1 1 6 18 Nicholas Kaschak '12
Katherine Sander '13
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 1 5 2 3 2 6 3 21 Eric Alamillo '13
Amanda Suarez '13
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 3 1 5 8 3 2 22 Shane Young '14
Kristen Barca '13
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 4 5 1 6 5 5 26 Mallory Schluter '14
Olivia Gebelein '15
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 7 3 4 3 2 7 26 Keely Scates '12
Caitlin Beavers '12
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 2 11 8 11 11 4 47 Peter Bailey '15
Louise Lehman '14
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1 14 9 13 7 4 1 48 Brian Hoover '12
Christopher Huang '12
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 6 6 7 12 8 12 51 Erik Samuels '13
Margaret Bobbin '13
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Channel Islands 1 11 8 10 13 7 9 58 Sierra Marangola '15
Jeffrey Tedmori '15
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 10 12 9 5 12 11 59 Nora Brackbill '13
Amy Stuyvesant '13
Arizona State University Arizona State University Arizona State 1 8 4 16 9 14 10 61 Spenser Branch '14
Jennifer Brandon '15
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2 9 16 6 10 15 8 64 Nicholas Weis '15
Sharon Quigley '13
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 2 13 13 17 4 9 13 69 Ray Carley '13 [1-6]
Jonathan Schafgans '13 [1-2]
Alan Tong '12 [3-6]
Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 1 12 10 12 17 13 15 79 Jeff Hodges '15
Taylor Forster '13
Arizona State University Arizona State University Arizona State 2 15 15 11 15 10 14 80 Margaret Blumm '14 [1-6]
Carina Freedman '14 [1-2, 5-6]
Christopher Buccola '13 [3-4]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 3 16 14 14 14 16 16 90 Alessandro Marazzi Sassoon '14
Daniel Kivlovitz '12
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 18 18 15 16 17 17 101
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Channel Islands 2 17 17 18 18 18 18 106 Alexa Gaddis '15
Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 126 Kyle Pope '13
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 126 Zachary Chin '15
Hayley Veal '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.210+0.21
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Arizona State 1393939393939
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Arizona State 2404040404040
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Channel Islands 1999999
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Channel Islands 2999999999999
Chapman UniversityChapman University Panthers 1414141414141
Chapman UniversityChapman University Panthers 2424242424242
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers777777
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 1373737373737
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 2383838383838
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 3371371371371371371
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters 1252525252525
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters 2262626262626
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1272727272727
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2282828282828
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3271271271271271271
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego UC San Diego 1292929292929
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego UC San Diego 2303030303030
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1313131313131
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2323232323232
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3131131131131131131

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Arizona State 1393939393939
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Arizona State 2404040404040
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Channel Islands 1999999
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Channel Islands 2999999999999
Chapman UniversityChapman University Panthers 1414141414141
Chapman UniversityChapman University Panthers 2424242424242
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers777777
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 1373737373737
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 2383838383838
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 3371371371371371371
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters 1252525252525
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters 2262626262626
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1272727272727
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2282828282828
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3271271271271271271
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego UC San Diego 1292929292929
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego UC San Diego 2303030303030
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1313131313131
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2323232323232
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3131131131131131131
School / Team SkipperCrew
Arizona State University Arizona State University Steven Cassingham '14 Chad Hardgrove '15
Arizona State 1 Spenser Branch '14 Jennifer Brandon '15
Arizona State University Arizona State University Michael Garrigan '13 [1-6] Austin Hodges '14 [1-2]
Elizabeth Champagne '14 [3-6]
Arizona State 2 Margaret Blumm '14 [1-6] Carina Freedman '14 [1-2, 5-6]
Christopher Buccola '13 [3-4]
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Gregory Dair '15 Bianca Barnes '15
Channel Islands 1 Sierra Marangola '15 Jeffrey Tedmori '15
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Lisa Marchand '12 Maddie Anzivino '15
Channel Islands 2 Alexa Gaddis '15
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach Dustin Durant '12 Lauren Hobson '15
49ers Shane Young '14 Kristen Barca '13
Chapman University Chapman University Catherine Bevens '14 Scott Weller '13
Panthers 1 Jeff Hodges '15 Taylor Forster '13
Chapman University Chapman University Kyle Pope '13
Panthers 2 Kyle Pope '13
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Colin Kincaid '14 Martha Davis '12
Anteaters 1 Brian Hoover '12 Christopher Huang '12
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine William Larsen '13 Samuel Heller '15
Anteaters 2 Nicholas Weis '15 Sharon Quigley '13
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles William Edwards '12 Carly Olenick '13
Bruins 1 Peter Bailey '15 Louise Lehman '14
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Erica Parker '14 Emelia Pelliccio '13
Bruins 2 Nora Brackbill '13 Amy Stuyvesant '13
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Zachary Chin '15 Hayley Veal '15
Bruins 3 Zachary Chin '15 Hayley Veal '15
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Matthew Nguyen '12 [1-6] Jennifer Lyons '12 [1-2]
Alicia Bernhard '13 [3-6]
UC San Diego 1 Eric Alamillo '13 Amanda Suarez '13
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego John Olson '14 [1-6] Rachael Yao '14 [1-2, 5-6]
Nathan Heisey '13 [3-4]
UC San Diego 2 Ray Carley '13 [1-6] Jonathan Schafgans '13 [1-2]
Alan Tong '12 [3-6]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Ryan Sullivan '12 Krystal Treiberg '12
Gauchos 1 Nicholas Kaschak '12 Katherine Sander '13
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Thomas Preston '12
Gauchos 2 Keely Scates '12 Caitlin Beavers '12
University of Southern California University of Southern California Cameron Hutcheson '14 Alexis Tarakjian '15
Trojans 1 Mallory Schluter '14 Olivia Gebelein '15
University of Southern California University of Southern California Kelsey Rupp '12 Carina Prynn '14
Trojans 2 Erik Samuels '13 Margaret Bobbin '13
University of Southern California University of Southern California Alessandro Marazzi Sassoon '14 Daniel Kivlovitz '12
Trojans 3 Alessandro Marazzi Sassoon '14 Daniel Kivlovitz '12

Conditions — 01/28/2012 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 48%  ·  Pressure 1020.8 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.5 kn
avg  ·  max 5.8 kn
Gusts to 11.3 kn
From NW (320°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1020.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at UC San Diego: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.14 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC San Diego by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (21 labelled days at UC San Diego).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →