Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup Regatta

HostCal Maritime
Date03/09/2012
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatCatalina 37
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	26	26
2	University of Southern California	Trojans	31	31
3	California State University Channel Islands	Channel Islands	36	36
4	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	40	40
5	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	41	41
6	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	49	49
7	Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	56	56
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	63	63
9	University of Michigan	Wolverines	70	70
10	University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears	84	84

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	TOT
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	1	5	1	1	1	4	4	3	6	26
University of Southern California	Trojans	6	3	2	3	7	1	3	5	1	31
California State University Channel Islands	Channel Islands	2	1	3	2	8	5	5	7	3	36
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	5	2	9	6	4	2	6	4	2	40
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	4	8	7	5	2	8	1	1	5	41
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	7	4	5	4	5	3	8	2	RAF	49
Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	9	6	10	7	3	9	2	6	4	56
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	8	7	4	8	6	6	7	8	9	63
University of Michigan	Wolverines	3	9	6	10	10	7	9	9	7	70
University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears	10	10	8	9	9	10	10	10	8	84

School	Team	Sailors
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	SkipperMatthew Van Rensselaer '13 CrewSara Himes '13 CrewKyle Vanderspek '13 CrewWilliam Antrobus '15 CrewKevin Hartley '14 CrewAndrew Lamb '14 CrewTyler Wolk '13
California State University Channel Islands	Channel Islands	SkipperGregory Dair '15 CrewHayley Bracken '13 CrewAlexa Gaddis '15 CrewJeffrey Tedmori '15 CrewSierra Marangola '15 CrewCameron DeMaranville '12 CrewAndrew Healy '13
Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	SkipperBlake Burgess '15 CrewNicholas Cabral '15 CrewZachary Vickers '12 CrewHarrison Bispham '13 CrewMolly Howe '15 CrewDavid Markley '14 CrewJake Newton '13
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	SkipperGraham Philpot '12 CrewMichael Reney '13 CrewJeffrey Gawrys '12 CrewTravis Thonus '14 [1-2] CrewEric Pattison '12 CrewSean McLaughlin '15 CrewTim Dexter '14 CrewAndrew Gregoire '14 [3-6]
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	SkipperPatrick Walker '13 CrewRudy Normann '13 CrewMike Carr '15 CrewOwen Wing '13 CrewDaniel McDonald '13 CrewNick Berger '14 CrewJames Dempsey '13
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	SkipperBenjamin Williamsz '13 CrewJohn Dierker '14 CrewMerrill Gutowski '13 CrewBrian Hills '14 CrewJordan Rank '14 CrewBreanna Hite '13 CrewKevin Knaup '13
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	SkipperColin Nevins '12 CrewJames Chesson '12 CrewLouis Henry '12 CrewChris Paulson '12 CrewDillon Rossiter '12 CrewKatharine Davis '12 CrewAndrew King '12
University of California at Berkeley	Golden Bears	SkipperLauren Amery '12 CrewAubrey Toole '12 CrewPetter Flordal '13 CrewElizabeth Felando '13 CrewMartin Gibson '13 CrewSarah Adams '13 CrewMegan Hayes '13
University of Michigan	Wolverines	SkipperDavid Oliver '14 CrewKathryn Burt '13 CrewVittorio Bichucher '14 CrewTanner DePriest '14 CrewAnsley Semack '14 CrewLiz Smith '14
University of Southern California	Trojans	SkipperCameron Hutcheson '14 CrewKelsey Rupp '12 CrewOlivia Gebelein '15 CrewAlessandro Marazzi Sassoon '14 CrewMargaret Bobbin '13 CrewDaniel Kivlovitz '12 CrewErik Samuels '13

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 10 boats · 9 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Matthew Van Rensselaer '13	California Maritime Academy	9/9	1.49	2.46	+0.97	90th → 99th	3.4	12%	2.9 / 4.7
2	Cameron Hutcheson '14	University of Southern California	9/9	1.66	2.09	+0.43	93rd → 99th	0.8	27%	3.4 / 4.5
3	Gregory Dair '15	California State University Channel Islands	9/9	0.96	1.84	+0.88	72nd → 97th	3.0	14%	4.0 / 5.7
4	Patrick Walker '13	SUNY Maritime College	9/9	0.60	1.74	+1.14	54th → 94th	5.0	12%	4.4 / 6.3
5	Colin Nevins '12	U. S. Naval Academy	9/9	1.89^u	1.45	−0.44	97th → 89th	1.0	67%	4.6 / 4.1
6	Graham Philpot '12	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	9/9	0.81	1.64	+0.83	65th → 93rd	2.5	38%	5.4 / 6.0
7	Blake Burgess '15	Maine Maritime Academy	9/9	1.40	0.78	−0.62	88th → 62nd	1.9	82%	6.2 / 4.9
8	Benjamin Williamsz '13	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	9/9	1.58^u	0.55	−1.03	91st → 53rd	5.9	95%	7.0 / 4.6
9	David Oliver '14	University of Michigan	9/9	0.07	0.18	+0.11	20th → 22nd	0.0	64%	7.8 / 7.2
10	Lauren Amery '12	University of California at Berkeley	9/9	0.20	-0.77	−0.98	33rd → 1st	3.0	98%	9.3 / 7.0

Conditions — 03/09/2012 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 47% · Pressure 1024.7 hPa

Temperature

63°F

↑ 72°F ↓ 44°F

Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

2.3 kn

avg · max 5.6 kn

Gusts to 14.2 kn

From NNW (347°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover10% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1024.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Cal Maritime — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Cal Maritime in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cal Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Cal Maritime: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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