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South 2-Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 21 12 33
2 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 23 13 36
3 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 27 15 42
4 University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1 43 34 77
5 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 55 32 87
6 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 1 43 44 87
7 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 25 63 88
8 Channel Islands 1 Channel Islands 1 Channel Islands 1 27 67 94
9 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 2 44 57 101
10 Arizona State University Arizona State University Arizona State 1 83 42 125
11 University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2 63 64 127
12 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 79 59 138
13 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 59 89 148
14 Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 1 91 60 151
15 Arizona State University Arizona State University Arizona State 2 79 76 155
16 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 3 58 102 160
17 Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 2 99 120 219
18 Channel Islands 2 Channel Islands 2 Channel Islands 2 115 114 229
19 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 110 120 230
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 3 6 7 2 1 2 21 Cameron Hutcheson '14
Carina Prynn '14
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 2 8 3 3 4 3 23 Dustin Durant '12 [1-6]
Lauren Hobson '15 [1-2]
Laura Newton '13 [3-6]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 4 3 1 6 2 9 25 Mallory Schluter '14
Margaret Bobbin '13
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 1 1 5 4 6 10 27 Nicholas Kaschak '12
Katherine Sander '13
Channel Islands 1 Channel Islands 1 Channel Islands 1 5 2 2 1 16 1 27
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1 8 11 6 5 5 8 43 Colin Kincaid '14
Martha Davis '12
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 1 10 7 4 7 11 4 43 Eric Alamillo '13
Amanda Suarez '13
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 2 6 12 9 8 3 6 44 Tyler Wooldridge '14 [1-6]
Jennifer Lyons '12 [1-2]
Charlie Davidson '13 [3-6]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 9 4 13 10 7 12 55 William Edwards '12
Carly Olenick '13
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 3 7 10 11 9 8 13 58 Daniel Kivlovitz '12
Olivia Gebelein '15
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 12 5 10 12 13 7 59 Thomas Preston '12
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2 14 13 8 11 12 5 63 Nicholas Weis '15
Austin Moore '13
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 11 16 16 15 10 11 79 Emelia Pelliccio '13
Nora Brackbill '13
Arizona State University Arizona State University Arizona State 2 16 9 15 16 9 14 79 Austin Hodges '14 [1-2]
Michael Garrigan '13 [3-6]
Elizabeth Champagne '14 [1-2]
Arizona State University Arizona State University Arizona State 1 13 15 12 13 15 15 83 Steven Cassingham '14
Chad Hardgrove '15
Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 1 15 18 14 14 14 16 91 Catherine Bevens '14 [1-6]
Jeff Hodges '15 [1-4]
Scott Weller '13 [5-6]
Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 2 17 14 17 17 17 17 99 Kyle Pope '13
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 19 19 18 18 18 18 110 Zachary Chin '15
Channel Islands 2 Channel Islands 2 Channel Islands 2 18 17 DNS DNS DNS DNS 115
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 1 1 4 2 3 1 12 Kelsey Rupp '12
Alexis Tarakjian '15
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 2 3 2 1 1 4 13 Shane Young '14 [1-6]
Kristen Barca '13 [1-2]
Chase Young '12 [3-6]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 4 2 1 3 2 3 15 Ryan Sullivan '12
Keely Scates '12
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 5 4 9 5 4 5 32 Peter Bailey '15
Louise Lehman '14
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1 7 8 3 7 7 2 34 Brian Hoover '12
Christopher Huang '12
Arizona State University Arizona State University Arizona State 1 3 10 6 6 9 8 42 Spenser Branch '14
Jennifer Brandon '15
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 1 10 7 7 8 5 7 44 Matthew Nguyen '12
Jennifer Lyons '12
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 2 12 6 5 10 15 9 57 Ray Carley '13 [1-6]
Christopher Keefe '14 [1-2, 5-6]
Nathan Heisey '13 [3-4]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 6 11 14 14 8 6 59 Amy Stuyvesant '13
Hayley Veal '15
Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 1 9 5 10 11 13 12 60 Trevor Moseley '13
Taylor Forster '13
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 11 9 8 4 11 OCS 63 Erik Samuels '13
Alessandro Marazzi Sassoon '14
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2 13 12 11 9 6 13 64 Samuel Heller '15
Sharon Quigley '13
Channel Islands 1 Channel Islands 1 Channel Islands 1 8 13 13 12 10 11 67
Arizona State University Arizona State University Arizona State 2 15 14 12 13 12 10 76 Margaret Blumm '14
Carina Freedman '14
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 14 16 16 15 14 14 89 Anthony Helm '15
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 3 16 15 15 16 DNS DNS 102 Daniel Kivlovitz '12
Olivia Gebelein '15
Channel Islands 2 Channel Islands 2 Channel Islands 2 17 17 DNS DNS DNS DNS 114
Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 120 Kyle Pope '13
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 120 Zachary Chin '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.210+0.21
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Arizona State 1393939393939
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Arizona State 2404040404040
Channel Islands 1Channel Islands 1 Channel Islands 1999999
Channel Islands 2Channel Islands 2 Channel Islands 2999999999999
Chapman UniversityChapman University Panthers 1414141414141
Chapman UniversityChapman University Panthers 2424242424242
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers777777
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 1373737373737
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 2383838383838
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 3371371371371371371
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters 1252525252525
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters 2262626262626
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1272727272727
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2282828282828
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3271271271271271271
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego UC San Diego 1292929292929
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego UC San Diego 2303030303030
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1313131313131
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2323232323232

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Arizona State 1393939393939
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Arizona State 2404040404040
Channel Islands 1Channel Islands 1 Channel Islands 1999999
Channel Islands 2Channel Islands 2 Channel Islands 2999999999999
Chapman UniversityChapman University Panthers 1414141414141
Chapman UniversityChapman University Panthers 2424242424242
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers777777
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 1373737373737
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 2383838383838
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 3371371371371371371
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters 1252525252525
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters 2262626262626
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1272727272727
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2282828282828
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3271271271271271271
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego UC San Diego 1292929292929
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego UC San Diego 2303030303030
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1313131313131
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2323232323232
School / Team SkipperCrew
Arizona State University Arizona State University Steven Cassingham '14 Chad Hardgrove '15
Arizona State 1 Spenser Branch '14 Jennifer Brandon '15
Arizona State University Arizona State University Austin Hodges '14 [1-2]
Michael Garrigan '13 [3-6]		 Elizabeth Champagne '14 [1-2]
Arizona State 2 Margaret Blumm '14 Carina Freedman '14
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach Dustin Durant '12 [1-6] Lauren Hobson '15 [1-2]
Laura Newton '13 [3-6]
49ers Shane Young '14 [1-6] Kristen Barca '13 [1-2]
Chase Young '12 [3-6]
Chapman University Chapman University Catherine Bevens '14 [1-6] Jeff Hodges '15 [1-4]
Scott Weller '13 [5-6]
Panthers 1 Trevor Moseley '13 Taylor Forster '13
Chapman University Chapman University Kyle Pope '13
Panthers 2 Kyle Pope '13
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Colin Kincaid '14 Martha Davis '12
Anteaters 1 Brian Hoover '12 Christopher Huang '12
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Nicholas Weis '15 Austin Moore '13
Anteaters 2 Samuel Heller '15 Sharon Quigley '13
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles William Edwards '12 Carly Olenick '13
Bruins 1 Peter Bailey '15 Louise Lehman '14
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Emelia Pelliccio '13 Nora Brackbill '13
Bruins 2 Amy Stuyvesant '13 Hayley Veal '15
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Zachary Chin '15
Bruins 3 Zachary Chin '15
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Eric Alamillo '13 Amanda Suarez '13
UC San Diego 1 Matthew Nguyen '12 Jennifer Lyons '12
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tyler Wooldridge '14 [1-6] Jennifer Lyons '12 [1-2]
Charlie Davidson '13 [3-6]
UC San Diego 2 Ray Carley '13 [1-6] Christopher Keefe '14 [1-2, 5-6]
Nathan Heisey '13 [3-4]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Nicholas Kaschak '12 Katherine Sander '13
Gauchos 1 Ryan Sullivan '12 Keely Scates '12
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Thomas Preston '12
Gauchos 2 Anthony Helm '15
University of Southern California University of Southern California Cameron Hutcheson '14 Carina Prynn '14
Trojans 1 Kelsey Rupp '12 Alexis Tarakjian '15
University of Southern California University of Southern California Mallory Schluter '14 Margaret Bobbin '13
Trojans 2 Erik Samuels '13 Alessandro Marazzi Sassoon '14
University of Southern California University of Southern California Daniel Kivlovitz '12 Olivia Gebelein '15
Trojans 3 Daniel Kivlovitz '12 Olivia Gebelein '15

Conditions — 01/29/2012 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 35%  ·  Pressure 1020.0 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 73°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.3 kn
avg  ·  max 6.9 kn
Gusts to 13.0 kn
From NNW (344°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover70% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity35% Pressure1020.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at UC San Diego: an underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.31 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC San Diego by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (21 labelled days at UC San Diego).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →