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# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Stanford University Stanford University Stanford 19 15 34
2 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 35 25 60
3 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 35 29 64
4 University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 39 26 65
5 California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Channel Islands 14 74 88
6 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 37 60 97
7 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 57 MRP 43 MRP 100 MRP
8 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 66 42 108
9 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 1 75 50 125
10 Arizona State University Arizona State University Arizona State 1 74 77 151
11 Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 88 87 175
12 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 84 MRP 93 MRP 177 MRP
13 Arizona State University Arizona State University Arizona State 2 97 81 178
14 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 72 133 205
15 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 2 133 80 213
16 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 108 MRP 118 MRP 226 MRP
17 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 112 133 245
18 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 153 MRP 153 MRP 306 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Channel Islands 1 1 3 4 1 2 2 14 Gregory Dair '15
Bianca Barnes '15
Stanford University Stanford University Stanford 3 2 1 5 4 3 1 19 Hans Henken '15
Natalie Urban '15
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 2 6 6 3 6 6 6 35 Cameron Hutcheson '14
Alexis Tarakjian '15
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 7 8 4 7 5 1 3 35 Dustin Durant '12 [1-7]
Foya Lazare '14 [1-2, 5-7]
Kristen Barca '13 [3-4]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 8 3 9 1 3 4 9 37 Kelsey Rupp '12
Erik Samuels '13
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 4 4 8 6 2 8 7 39 Brian Hoover '12
Austin Moore '13
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 6 5 2 8 7 5 4 57 MRP Nicholas Kaschak '12
Katherine Sander '13
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 5 10 10 9 12 7 13 66 William Edwards '12
Emelia Pelliccio '13
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 12 7 15 13 8 9 8 72 Erica Parker '14
Amy Stuyvesant '13
Arizona State University Arizona State University Arizona State 1 9 11 11 12 9 12 10 74 Spenser Branch '14
Jennifer Brandon '15
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 1 10 14 5 11 11 13 11 75 Eric Alamillo '13 [1-7]
Rachael Yao '14 [1-4, 7]
John Olson '14 [5-6]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 14 12 7 2 10 14 5 84 MRP Erik Lund '14 [1-7]
Matthew Susank '15 [1-4]
Kristen Schlotman '13 [5-7]
Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 11 9 14 14 15 11 14 88 Catherine Bevens '14
Arizona State University Arizona State University Arizona State 2 15 13 13 15 14 15 12 97 Austin Hodges '14
Christopher Buccola '13
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 13 15 12 10 13 10 15 108 MRP Andrew Amenta '12
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 112 Zachary Chin '15
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 2 DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 133 Ellen Ni Chathail '11 [1-4, 7]
John Olson '14 [5-6]
Alan Tong '12 [1-4, 7]
Jaclyn Lovato '14 [5-6]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 153 MRP Thomas Preston '12
Andrew Amenta '12
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Stanford 3 3 2 1 2 3 1 15 Michael Dahl '15
Kaitlyn Baab '15
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 1 4 3 2 1 9 5 25 Shane Young '14 [1-7]
Kristen Barca '13 [1-2]
Chase Young '12 [3-7]
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 5 1 1 5 5 2 7 26 Samuel Heller '15
Martha Davis '12
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 2 5 6 3 4 6 3 29 Mallory Schluter '14
Olivia Gebelein '15
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 6 10 5 7 3 5 6 42 Peter Bailey '15
Louise Lehman '14
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 4 2 4 4 6 1 2 43 MRP Ryan Sullivan '12
Jessica Schem '13
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 1 7 7 7 8 9 8 4 50 Matthew Nguyen '12
Jennifer Lyons '12
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 13 6 9 10 10 4 8 60 Daniel Kivlovitz '12 [1-7]
Margaret Bobbin '13 [1-2, 5-7]
Alessandro Marazzi Sassoon '14 [3-4]
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Channel Islands 14 8 11 15 7 7 12 74 Jeffrey Tedmori '15
Lisa Marchand '12
Arizona State University Arizona State University Arizona State 1 11 13 10 13 11 10 9 77 Michael Garrigan '13
Chad Hardgrove '15
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 2 10 14 8 9 14 14 11 80 Benjamin Steen '13
William Thornhill '12
Arizona State University Arizona State University Arizona State 2 12 12 14 12 8 13 10 81 Steven Cassingham '14
Kendall Valsvik '15
Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 9 11 15 11 12 15 14 87 Kyle Pope '13
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 8 9 12 6 13 12 13 93 MRP Kiersten Mcdonald '15 [1-4]
Curtis Wagner '13 [5-7]
Kalei White '15 [1-4]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 15 15 13 14 15 11 15 118 MRP Andrew Amenta '12
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 133 Zachary Chin '15
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 OCS DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 133 Nora Brackbill '13
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 153 MRP Thomas Preston '12
Andrew Amenta '12
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.600+0.60
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team4A5A6A7A
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Arizona State 11111
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Arizona State 22222
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang6666
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Channel Islands5555
Chapman UniversityChapman University Panthers3333
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers4444
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 117171717
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 218181818
Stanford UniversityStanford University Stanford7777
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters8888
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 19999
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 210101010
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 311111111
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego UC San Diego 115151515
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego UC San Diego 216161616
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 112121212
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 213131313
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 314141414

Division B

Team4B5B6B7B
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Arizona State 11111
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Arizona State 22222
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang6666
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Channel Islands5555
Chapman UniversityChapman University Panthers3333
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers4444
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 117171717
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 218181818
Stanford UniversityStanford University Stanford7777
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters8888
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 19999
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 210101010
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 311111111
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego UC San Diego 115151515
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego UC San Diego 216161616
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 112121212
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 213131313
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 314141414
School / Team SkipperCrew
Arizona State University Arizona State University Spenser Branch '14 Jennifer Brandon '15
Arizona State 1 Michael Garrigan '13 Chad Hardgrove '15
Arizona State University Arizona State University Austin Hodges '14 Christopher Buccola '13
Arizona State 2 Steven Cassingham '14 Kendall Valsvik '15
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Erik Lund '14 [1-7] Matthew Susank '15 [1-4]
Kristen Schlotman '13 [5-7]
Mustang Kiersten Mcdonald '15 [1-4]
Curtis Wagner '13 [5-7]		 Kalei White '15 [1-4]
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Gregory Dair '15 Bianca Barnes '15
Channel Islands Jeffrey Tedmori '15 Lisa Marchand '12
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach Dustin Durant '12 [1-7] Foya Lazare '14 [1-2, 5-7]
Kristen Barca '13 [3-4]
49ers Shane Young '14 [1-7] Kristen Barca '13 [1-2]
Chase Young '12 [3-7]
Chapman University Chapman University Catherine Bevens '14
Panthers Kyle Pope '13
Stanford University Stanford University Hans Henken '15 Natalie Urban '15
Stanford Michael Dahl '15 Kaitlyn Baab '15
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Brian Hoover '12 Austin Moore '13
Anteaters Samuel Heller '15 Martha Davis '12
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles William Edwards '12 Emelia Pelliccio '13
Bruins 1 Peter Bailey '15 Louise Lehman '14
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Zachary Chin '15
Bruins 2 Zachary Chin '15
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Erica Parker '14 Amy Stuyvesant '13
Bruins 3 Nora Brackbill '13
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Eric Alamillo '13 [1-7] Rachael Yao '14 [1-4, 7]
John Olson '14 [5-6]
UC San Diego 1 Matthew Nguyen '12 Jennifer Lyons '12
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Ellen Ni Chathail '11 [1-4, 7]
John Olson '14 [5-6]		 Alan Tong '12 [1-4, 7]
Jaclyn Lovato '14 [5-6]
UC San Diego 2 Benjamin Steen '13 William Thornhill '12
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Nicholas Kaschak '12 Katherine Sander '13
Gauchos 1 Ryan Sullivan '12 Jessica Schem '13
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Andrew Amenta '12
Gauchos 2 Andrew Amenta '12
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Thomas Preston '12 Andrew Amenta '12
Gauchos 3 Thomas Preston '12 Andrew Amenta '12
University of Southern California University of Southern California Cameron Hutcheson '14 Alexis Tarakjian '15
Trojans 1 Mallory Schluter '14 Olivia Gebelein '15
University of Southern California University of Southern California Kelsey Rupp '12 Erik Samuels '13
Trojans 2 Daniel Kivlovitz '12 [1-7] Margaret Bobbin '13 [1-2, 5-7]
Alessandro Marazzi Sassoon '14 [3-4]

Conditions — 02/25/2012 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1018.1 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.1 kn
avg  ·  max 7.0 kn
Gusts to 16.1 kn
From SW (216°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover12% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1018.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at UC Irvine: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.02 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC Irvine by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at UC Irvine, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →