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Bryson Women's

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans B 2 5 3 4 2 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 2 4 34 Mallory Schluter '14 [1-14]
Alexis Tarakjian '15 [1-6]
Olivia Gebelein '15 [7-14]
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal A 1 1 2 2 1 2 4 3 2 4 1 1 9 3 36 Sarah Mace '14
Mckenzie Wilson '14
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans A 6 2 4 1 4 3 3 4 3 5 4 4 1 1 45 Kelsey Rupp '12 [1-14]
Olivia Gebelein '15 [1-6]
Alexis Tarakjian '15 [7-14]
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal B 4 3 1 3 3 4 2 6 5 1 7 2 3 2 46 Molly Mckinney '14
Kaitlyn Baab '15
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters A 5 4 6 5 5 5 5 2 4 2 3 5 6 5 62 Ashley Hobson '13
Martha Davis '12
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Berkeley B 3 7 10 7 7 6 6 5 10 9 6 8 7 6 97 Megan Hayes '13 [1-14]
Elizabeth Felando '13 [1-8]
Danielle Farrar '13 [9-14]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins A 8 9 7 6 6 8 7 7 6 8 11 10 5 11 109 Emelia Pelliccio '13
Louise Lehman '14
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters A 7 6 5 8 10 9 9 8 12 6 9 9 8 10 116 Hanna Miller '15
Samantha Ortega '13
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Berkeley A 9 8 9 12 11 12 8 11 7 10 5 7 4 7 120 Lauren Amery '12
Kelly Goodman '14
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins B 10 11 8 10 8 10 10 9 9 11 8 6 11 9 130 Nora Brackbill '13
Amy Stuyvesant '13
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters B 12 12 11 9 9 7 12 12 8 7 10 11 10 8 138 Sharon Quigley '13
Niamh Leonard '13
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters B 11 10 12 11 12 11 11 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 159 Christina Stege '14
Laura Sartori '13
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (35 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Berkeley112233445566
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters223344556677
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans6677889910101111
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal334455667788
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters445566778899
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins55667788991010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Berkeley778899101011111212
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters889910101111121211
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans12121122334455
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal991010111112121122
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters101011111212112233
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins1111121211223344

Conditions — 02/11/2012 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 87%  ·  Pressure 1018.0 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.6 kn
avg  ·  max 7.8 kn
Gusts to 19.2 kn
From WNW (288°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine6.0 hrs Humidity87% Pressure1018.0 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn · SW 8 kn* · NW 12 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stanford: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.27 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →