Stanford University '18
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 17.97 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.114 rating points from 15 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.66 (fleet 3.67) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 35–5 (88%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 10–4 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 25–1 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (40 matches) the record is 35–5 against 30.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-25 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.17 | 3.16 | 10–4 | 10.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | skipper | 2.93 | 5.93 | 18–0 | 14.6 | ≥+3.00 | 5.4 | 2% |
| 2015-02-28 | 2015 McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.67 | 4.20 | 7–1 | 5.7 | +1.54 | 1.3 | 23% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.9 | 3.34 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 10.9 | 3.22 |
| Phebe Corckran King Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.8 | 3.92 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 7.5 | 3.92 |
| PCCSC Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.5 | 3.60 |
| 2018 Bryson Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.5 | 3.08 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.9 | 3.55 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.6 | 2.81 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.0 | 4.18 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.4 | 3.08 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | B | 17 | 9.1 | 2.97 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.8 | 3.35 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.2 | 3.59 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 11.7 | 2.37 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St Francis Interconference | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.2 | 2.10 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.4 | 3.00 |
| PCCSC South Designate | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.6 | 3.25 |
| 2016 North Gold Regatta | Skipper | A | 17 | 3.9 | 3.15 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.9 | 2.90 |
| St. Mary's College of MD Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.4 | 3.22 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.2 | 3.33 |
| PCCSC Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 1.3 | 4.42 |
| Duplin Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 100% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.3 | 2.71 |
| Bryson Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 2.8 | 1.83 |
| Long Beach Gold Invite | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.1 | 2.13 |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.9 | 2.93 |
| 2015 McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 88% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.4 | 3.56 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Crew | A | 15 | 12.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
