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2016 North Gold Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 41 41
2 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 55 55
3 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 3 67 67
4 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 89 89
5 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 4 95 95
6 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 106 106
7 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 2 136 136
8 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 1 138 138
9 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 142 142
10 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 173 173
11 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 175 175
12 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 3 182 182
13 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 208 208
14 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 4 230 230
15 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 252 252
16 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 3 253 253
17 California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 2 274 274
18 California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 1 293 293
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 2 5 7 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 2 1 2 6 41 Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk '17
Sarah Placek '18
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 1 1 4 2 6 4 3 6 3 3 5 3 3 5 4 1 1 55 Maria El-Khazindar '19 [1-17]
Maggie Schult '19 [1-9]
Russell Clarida '19 [10-17]
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 16 9 4 2 2 4 1 1 2 3 3 67 Julia Lambert '18
Cassie Obel '19
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 6 7 9 1 4 5 5 2 6 7 4 1 9 6 7 8 2 89 Nicolas Delfino '16
No Show
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 4 5 3 5 6 2 6 4 3 2 10 10 9 7 9 3 4 7 95 Elena Vandenberg '18
Meg Gerli '19
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 4 2 1 5 5 11 2 15 11 13 1 6 5 3 9 5 8 106 Kyra Oakes '18
Katie Hitchcock '16
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 2 11 8 2 9 11 7 6 7 5 9 9 8 8 12 12 7 5 136 Caitlin Schadt '18
Gianna Bailey '18
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 1 15 9 6 10 8 2 13 4 RAF 5 8 7 12 4 6 6 4 138 Louise Currie '18
Taylor Morgan '16
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 9 6 8 11 9 8 7 5 7 8 6 13 11 11 5 9 9 142 Leah Ford '19
Kylie Sullivan '17
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 7 11 11 7 10 10 12 16 14 11 7 16 4 8 8 10 11 173 Nicholas Lenz Lenz '19
Marianne Simpson '19
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 10 12 12 8 15 14 11 10 9 4 13 5 6 10 15 11 10 175 Oliver Kunz '15
James Kerman '17
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 3 8 13 10 13 7 9 9 11 10 6 15 11 10 14 11 12 13 182 Annie Johnson '18
Hana Bruno '16
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 12 10 13 12 14 17 8 8 8 15 12 14 15 7 14 14 15 208 Tyler Hogan '17
Olivia Macdonald '19
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 4 17 16 14 14 12 13 10 17 12 14 17 12 14 13 10 13 12 230 Thomas Garcia '19
Michaela Perinova '18
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 14 15 15 15 13 16 17 18 13 12 11 15 16 16 13 15 18 252 Cullen Quine '18
Alexander Daniele '18
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 3 13 17 16 17 18 12 14 12 15 DNS 14 10 13 17 16 16 14 253 Rohan Sinha '19
Chun Ting Justin Lai '16
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 2 16 14 17 18 17 15 15 13 17 16 16 17 18 15 17 17 16 274 Andrew Clements '17
Kinsey Cohen '17
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 1 18 18 18 16 16 18 18 14 16 17 18 18 17 18 18 18 17 293 Charles Winter '17
Julian Ramirez '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A17A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 18889991010101111111212121313
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 29991010101111111212121313131414
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 31010101111111212121313131414141515
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang11122233344455566
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins 122233344455566677
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins 233344455566677788
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows 116161617171718181811122233
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows 217171718181811122233344
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows 318181811122233344455
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 144455566677788899
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 25556667778889991010
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 36667778889991010101111
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 47778889991010101111111212
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 11111111212121313131414141515151616
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 21212121313131414141515151616161717
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 31313131414141515151616161717171818
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 414141415151516161617171718181811
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons15151516161617171718181811122

Conditions — 03/19/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 77%  ·  Pressure 1016.9 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.9 kn
avg  ·  max 5.8 kn
Gusts to 16.5 kn
From SW (220°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover69% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1016.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 7 kn · S 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stanford: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.01 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →