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PCCSC Women's Championship

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal A 4 4 4 1 2 5 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 3 34 Julia Lambert '18 [1-12]
Christina Sakellaris '21 [13-14]
Victoria Thompson '21 [1-12]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos A 2 1 5 6 3 2 13 1 7 7 11 5 2 11 76 Simone Staff '18 [1-14]
Samantha Obel '21 [1-6]
Olivia Beers '21 [7-14]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans B 3 6 1 2 5 3 6 6 11 6 9 6 10 6 80 Sarah Alexander '19 [1-14]
Sabrina Moreno '19 [1-10]
Kai Otsmaa '21 [11-14]
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal B 1 7 8 12 1 12 12 10 8 4 2 1 4 1 83 Maria El-Khazindar '19 [1-6]
Stephanie Houck '21 [7-14]
Meg Gerli '19 [1-6]
Sophia Sole '21 [7-14]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang B 5 2 6 13 7 BKD 2 11 1 5 5 14 5 2 84 Josselyn Verutti '21
Grace Carrick '18
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows A 8 9 3 3 6 6 3 7 13 10 8 3 6 8 93 Caitlin Schadt '18 [1-14]
Gianna Bailey '18 [1-6]
Jessica Lawler '18 [7-14]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos B 10 3 DSQ 14 4 1 11 12 9 13 7 4 3 5 111 Madeline Kraus '20 [1-6, 11-14]
Julia Downey '20 [7-10]
Mary Toomey '22 [1-6]
Kerri Luttrell '21 [7-8]
Marina Fennell '17 [9-14]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans A 7 11 9 5 10 13 4 5 DSQ 8 6 9 7 4 113 Grace Yakutis '20
Melissa Schem '18
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows B 6 10 10 8 8 4 5 14 10 14 4 7 9 9 118 Annika Garrett '19 [1-14]
Danielle Ahir '20 [1-6]
Megan Zamzow '19 [7-14]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears A 11 5 12 9 9 8 8 8 5 9 3 11 11 14 123 Ciara Dorsay '21 [1-14]
Paris Sato '21 [1-6]
Olivia Macdonald '19 [7-14]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins A 12 8 7 11 12 11 10 13 4 1 10 8 14 13 134 Laura Roudebush '18
Maddy Kuhn '20
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins B 13 13 13 4 13 9 14 3 3 3 13 10 13 12 136 Leah Ford '19
Hallie Muller '20
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang A 9 14 2 7 11 14 7 9 12 12 12 12 12 7 140 Alyson Crowley '20 [1-14]
Grace Vandervort '21 [1-7]
Helen Payne '19 [8-14]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears B 14 12 11 10 14 7 9 4 6 11 14 13 8 10 143 Josefina Ruggieri '21
Megan Grosspietsch '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (35 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears7788991010111112121313
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang556677889910101111
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows101099887766551818
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans1111121213131414151516161717
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal665518181717161615151414
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins88776655181817171616
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos99101011111212131314141515

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears141413131212111110109988
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang12121111101099887766
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows171718185566778899
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans1818171716161515141413131212
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal13131414151516161717181855
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins1515161617171818556677
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos1616151514141313121211111010

Conditions — 04/14/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1024.1 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.4 kn
avg  ·  max 7.2 kn
Gusts to 17.9 kn
From NNW (331°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover10% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1024.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn* · W 13 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stanford: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.07 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.18 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →