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2018 Bryson Women's

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal A 7 5 7 2 2 6 1 2 6 2 5 2 1 2 2 3 55 Stephanie Houck '21 [1-10]
Julia Lambert '18 [11-16]
Madeline Bubb '20 [1-10]
Victoria Thompson '21 [11-16]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows A 6 2 1 1 3 2 5 9 9 1 1 3 4 5 1 DNF 66 Caitlin Schadt '18 [1-16]
Gianna Bailey '18 [1-12, 15-16]
Megan Lucas '20 [13-14]
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal B 5 1 6 10 4 10 6 1 2 4 9 1 2 4 3 1 69 Christina Sakellaris '21
Meg Gerli '19
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang B 11 4 8 3 8 9 2 7 4 3 8 4 9 6 8 5 99 Josselyn Verutti '21
Grace Carrick '18
University of Southern California University of Southern California Women of Troy A 3 6 3 9 1 8 11 8 7 9 11 10 3 3 4 4 100 Grace Yakutis '20
Melissa Schem '18
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears A 1 10 5 4 5 7 9 5 10 5 4 5 12 10 10 2 104 Ciara Dorsay '21 [1-16]
Paris Sato '21 [1-10]
Olivia Macdonald '19 [11-16]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Women of Troy B 9 7 10 5 10 1 10 3 1 6 3 9 5 7 6 DNF 105 Sarah Alexander '19
Sabrina Moreno '19
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows B 2 3 4 6 7 5 3 4 11 8 7 11 10 8 5 DNF 107 Annika Garrett '19 [1-16]
Danielle Ahir '20 [1-12, 14]
Jessica Lawler '18 [13, 15-16]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins B 4 8 9 8 9 4 4 6 5 10 2 7 8 11 9 7 111 Leah Ford '19
Hallie Muller '20
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang A 10 11 2 11 6 3 8 10 3 7 12 6 7 1 7 8 112 Alyson Crowley '20
Helen Payne '19
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins A 8 9 11 7 12 12 7 12 8 12 6 8 6 9 12 6 145 Laura Roudebush '18
Maddy Kuhn '20
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears B 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 11 12 11 10 12 11 12 11 9 181 Katey Hayes '20
Kylie Fawcett '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears334455667788991313
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang1122334455667788
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows5566778899131314141515
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Women of Troy6677889913131414151511
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal2233445566778899
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins44556677889913131414

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B16B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears9913131414151511223344
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang7788991313141415151122
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows14141515112233445566
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Women of Troy151511223344556677
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal8899131314141515112233
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins1313141415151122334455

Conditions — 02/10/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 50%  ·  Pressure 1014.1 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.3 kn
avg  ·  max 9.1 kn
Gusts to 20.6 kn
From NW (322°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover18% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1014.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 9 kn · W 8 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stanford: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.06 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.04 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →