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Cardinal

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 7 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 5 1 23 Kieran Chung '15
Haley Kirk '15
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 3 2 1 5 6 7 2 3 3 4 4 2 39 Axel Sly '16
Noelle Herring '16
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 1 10 2 3 4 5 5 6 9 6 4 55 Stephen Long '17
Kristina Miller '17
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 3 7 8 5 14 6 2 2 3 1 10 61 Gregory Dair '15
Bianca Barnes '15
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 4 4 5 9 OCS 2 3 4 4 2 8 13 73 Scott Buckstaff '17
Elena Vandenberg '18
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4 14 8 3 8 3 OCS 6 7 7 3 7 85 Sterling Henken '18
Amelia Anderson '18
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 5 6 13 12 6 7 12 8 8 2 9 88 John Coakley '16
Paul Chyz '18
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 10 4 6 1 10 15 14 11 10 10 3 94 Matthew Hecht '16
Hank Huang '17
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 12 3 11 9 8 12 9 5 6 14 12 101 Daniel Ron '17
Amelia Hardy '18
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3 9 11 15 4 11 9 8 9 5 7 16 104 Cobi Allen '16
Gregory Coumes '17
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 5 8 14 4 7 5 17 16 10 12 13 8 114 Neil Stapleton '18
Remy Margerum '17
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 3 6 15 7 14 9 14 13 15 11 12 11 127 Peter Wong '18
Caroline Carney '16
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 13 9 DNF DNF DNF 13 7 12 14 9 6 140 Antonio Rojas Mayol '16
Natasha Jarett '14
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 16 17 17 10 12 8 15 17 15 11 5 143 Brian Maclean '18
Philip Tagatac '17
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 11 16 16 11 15 11 11 14 13 16 14 148 Nicolas Delfino '16
No Show
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 15 12 12 OCS 17 10 10 13 16 15 15 154 Ian Spilman '15
Emma Shaw '14
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 OCS 13 10 OCS 13 4 DNF DNS DNS DNF DNF 173 Ian Stokes '16
Noah Eckhous '15
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 17 18 14 13 16 16 17 16 17 17 17 178 Ian Markowitz '17
Janice Wondolleck '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (35 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears66666666666
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins11111111111
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 11616161616161616161616
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 21717171717171717171717
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 31818181818181818181818
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 122222222222
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 233333333333
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 344444444444
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 455555555555
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies77777777777
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters88888888888
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons99999999999
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 11010101010101010101010
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 21111111111111111111111
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 31212121212121212121212
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 41313131313131313131313
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 51414141414141414141414
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's1515151515151515151515

Conditions — 04/11/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1017.8 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.9 kn
avg  ·  max 8.6 kn
Gusts to 21.0 kn
From W (279°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover27% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1017.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 15 kn · N 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Stanford: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.11 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.08 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →