St. Francis Intersectional

HostStanford
Date04/02/2011
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	University of South Florida	Bulls	49	40	89
2	California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	37	59	96
3	University of Hawaii	Rainbows 1	84	41	125
4	University of Southern California	Trojans	73	62	135
5	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 1	75	70	145
6	University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins 1	64	83	147
7	University of California at Berkeley	Berkeley 1	73	80	153
8	Stanford University	Cardinal	86	69	155
9	University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	91	64	155
10	University of Hawaii	Rainbows 2	80	86	166
11	Santa Clara University	Santa Clara	110	74	184
12	University of California at Davis	UC Davis	99	85	184
13	University of California at San Diego	UC San Diego 1	103	103	206
14	California State University Long Beach	CSU Long Beach	133	103	236
15	University of Oregon	Ducks	129	107	236
16	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 2	96	145	241
17	UC Santa Cruz	UC Santa Cruz	101	152	253
18	University of Washington	Huskies	108	184	292
19	University of California at San Diego	UC San Diego 2	166	134	300
20	California State University Monterey Bay	Otters	156	155	311
21	Chapman University	Panthers	182	133	315
22	Western Washington University	Vikings 1	156	168	324
23	Western Washington University	Vikings 2	179	155	334
24	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang	198	153	351
25	University of Puget Sound	Puget Sound	181	202	383
26	University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins 2	188	203	391
27	University of Oregon	Women's	204	189	393
28	Portland State University	Vikings	186	212	398
29	University of Texas	Longhorns	225	190	415
30	University of California at Berkeley	Berkeley 2	181	264	445
31	Purdue University	Purdue	227	229	456
32	California State University Channel Islands	Channel Islands	206	257	463

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	6	1	1	2	8	6	3	10	37	Sean Kelly '12 Jessica Schember '12
University of South Florida	Bulls	1	13	13	1	9	1	6	5	49	Zachary Marks '11 Diana Mae Cabili '11
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins 1	11	3	14	5	7	3	10	11	64	Judge Ryan '14 William Edwards '12
University of California at Berkeley	Berkeley 1	3	9	3	14	2	14	16	12	73	Cody Shevitz '12 Jacob Freimer '11
University of Southern California	Trojans	20	8	4	12	5	9	13	2	73	Kelsey Rupp '12 [1-5] Stephen Lue '12 [6-8] Alexander Kraebel '11 [1-5]
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 1	5	6	16	6	1	21	1	19	75	Matt Foster '11 Christina Nagatani '11
University of Hawaii	Rainbows 2	9	11	10	7	10	5	19	9	80	Hannah Tuson-Turner '11 Hanne Nagatani '13
University of Hawaii	Rainbows 1	19	5	6	16	23	2	5	8	84	Zachary Hester '10 Tahnee Allman '12
Stanford University	Cardinal	4	14	15	11	22	12	2	6	86	Nick Dugdale '12 Helena Scutt '14
University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	7	7	11	3	3	10	26	24	91	Jack Porter '11 Kate Andersen '15
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 2	18	4	7	9	14	17	11	16	96	Keely Scates '12 Katherine Sander '13
University of California at Davis	UC Davis	15	18	2	22	4	13	18	7	99	Michael Lazzaro '12 [1-8] Kayla Beltran '14 [1-2, 5-8] Karisa Chapa '14 [3-4]
UC Santa Cruz	UC Santa Cruz	21	12	12	10	6	7	30	3	101
University of California at San Diego	UC San Diego 1	2	15	OCS	4	13	11	7	18	103	Eric Alamillo '13 Sean Patno '11
University of Washington	Huskies	8	2	9	23	DNF	23	9	1	108	Glen Stellmacher '11 [1-8] Caylin Cordray '13 [1-5] Brendan Philip '14 [6-8]
Santa Clara University	Santa Clara	12	20	19	26	21	4	4	4	110	Lindsay Grove '13 [1-4] John Connor Bathen '14 [5-8] Rachel Flanagan '14 [1-2] Blake Martini '11 [3-4] Lindsay Grove '13 [5-8]
University of Oregon	Ducks	17	10	25	27	19	8	8	15	129	Elliot Drake '12 [1-2, 5-8] Andrew Balter '12 [3-4] Kaili Swetland '14 [1-2, 5-8] Hyojung Na '12 [3-4]
California State University Long Beach	CSU Long Beach	13	19	18	8	27	16	12	20	133	Dustin Durant '12 Laura Newton '13
Western Washington University	Vikings 1	14	22	22	15	29	18	22	14	156	Bryan Rust '11 Debbi Kenote '13
California State University Monterey Bay	Otters	25	17	20	13	24	27	17	13	156	Bradley Schoch '11 Natalie Cardoso '13
University of California at San Diego	UC San Diego 2	23	21	24	29	11	20	15	23	166	Alicia Bernhard '13 Jennifer Lyons '12
Western Washington University	Vikings 2	22	23	8	20	30	19	27	30	179	Erika Vranizan '12 Sara Welsh '12
University of Puget Sound	Puget Sound	16	30	17	25	26	22	28	17	181	Mike Knape '12 Annin Ramsing '13
University of California at Berkeley	Berkeley 2	24	16	28	18	16	25	23	31	181	Megan Hayes '13 Anja Wittels '13
Chapman University	Panthers	29	24	23	17	18	28	21	22	182	Trevor Moseley '13 Lauren Mcnally '12
Portland State University	Vikings	27	26	5	19	25	26	31	27	186	Leila Whitney '13 Kristine Dewilde '11
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins 2	10	28	21	28	28	15	29	29	188	Carmen Bozina '11 Erica Parker '14
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang	26	29	26	30	15	31	20	21	198	Thomas Maher '12 Erik Lund '14
University of Oregon	Women's	30	27	27	21	12	30	25	32	204	Cara Kuhlman '11 Katherine Emberley '13
California State University Channel Islands	Channel Islands	28	25	29	24	31	29	14	26	206	Andrew Domingos '11 Lisa Marchand '12
University of Texas	Longhorns	31	32	30	31	20	32	24	25	225	Caleb Cunningham '12 William Cragin '15
Purdue University	Purdue	32	31	31	32	17	24	32	28	227	George Halsted '07 Jessica Traver '13

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
University of South Florida	Bulls	1	1	5	6	2	1	13	11	40	Sean Ross '12 [1-2, 5-8] Will Stocke '13 [3-4] Christine Sayler '11 [1-2, 5-8]
University of Hawaii	Rainbows 1	2	6	4	9	7	2	6	5	41	Adam Pokras '14 [1-8] Cienna Patmont '12 [1-2, 5-8] Laura Hughes '14 [3-4]
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	8	2	15	8	6	10	2	8	59	Matthew Van Rensselaer '13 Nevin Garcia '12
University of Southern California	Trojans	7	5	8	7	15	5	1	14	62	Cameron Hutcheson '14 Maggie Nolting '14
University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	9	18	16	12	1	3	4	1	64	Rex Cameron '12 [1-8] Austin Moore '13 [1-4] Blair Johnston '11 [5-8]
Stanford University	Cardinal	4	3	3	2	4	7	DSQ	13	69	Benjamin Pedrick '11 [1-8] Tally Buckstaff '14 [1-4] Michelle Yu '14 [5-8]
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 1	13	10	9	10	5	4	16	3	70	Logan Swartz '11 Kimberly Sultz '13
Santa Clara University	Santa Clara	12	9	13	5	8	9	9	9	74	Brandon Wood '14 Daniel Marks '14
University of California at Berkeley	Berkeley 1	5	14	7	15	3	17	15	4	80	Joshua Kew '12 Travis Benton '14
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins 1	28	12	1	1	14	6	14	7	83	Oscar Jasklowski '11 Louise Lehman '14
University of California at Davis	UC Davis	19	8	2	4	13	12	5	22	85	Ryan Lee '12 Elizabeth Thome '11
University of Hawaii	Rainbows 2	3	4	6	13	12	11	20	17	86	Madeline Kennedy '14 Lani Johnson '12
University of California at San Diego	UC San Diego 1	22	11	18	3	20	8	3	18	103	Matthew Nguyen '12 John Olson '14
California State University Long Beach	CSU Long Beach	25	7	11	11	16	14	17	2	103	Shane Young '14 Chase Young '12
University of Oregon	Ducks	6	19	19	25	10	15	7	6	107	Philip Gordon '12 [1-8] Taylor Parrish '12 [1-4] Hannah Darrow '13 [5-8]
Chapman University	Panthers	11	16	21	17	9	20	11	28	133	Dane Butera '12 Taylor Forster '13
University of California at San Diego	UC San Diego 2	10	13	10	21	18	19	22	21	134	Brooke Sharp '11 Amanda Suarez '13
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos 2	17	23	24	14	11	13	18	25	145	Caitlin Beavers '12 Krystal Treiberg '12
UC Santa Cruz	UC Santa Cruz	14	28	17	20	17	16	21	19	152
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustang	26	15	26	18	27	18	8	15	153	Thomas Maher '12 Erik Lund '14
California State University Monterey Bay	Otters	20	21	14	24	21	27	12	16	155	Zachary Haney '11 Mark Hurdle '13
Western Washington University	Vikings 2	23	17	23	19	19	21	10	23	155	Ashley Vincent '12 Angela Gossom '13
Western Washington University	Vikings 1	18	22	28	22	24	23	19	12	168	Alex Waldron '13 Paul Foley '15
University of Washington	Huskies	15	20	29	16	22	29	27	26	184	Thomas Stewart '11 Molly Utter '14
University of Oregon	Women's	21	24	27	29	23	30	25	10	189	Marissa Paulling '11 Caitlyn Bryson '11
University of Texas	Longhorns	16	27	12	23	29	28	26	29	190	Hazel Mahony '11 Erica Lassen '14
University of Puget Sound	Puget Sound	29	29	25	28	26	22	23	20	202	John Elam '11 [1-8] Jen Vroomen '11 [1-4] Kelsey Cohan '13 [5-8]
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins 2	24	25	22	26	25	26	28	27	203	Emelia Pelliccio '13 Nora Brackbill '13
Portland State University	Vikings	27	DNF	20	27	28	24	29	24	212	Mitchell Mclean '12 [1-2, 5-6] Aldyn Brudie '13 [3-4, 7-8] Aldyn Brudie '13 [1-2, 5-6] John Hart '11 [3-4] Mitchell Mclean '12 [7-8]
Purdue University	Purdue	30	30	30	30	30	25	24	30	229	Nick Heymer '11 Matthew Steiner '13
California State University Channel Islands	Channel Islands	DNS	26	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNS	DNS	257	Andrew Domingos '11 Lisa Marchand '12
University of California at Berkeley	Berkeley 2	DNS	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNS	DNS	264	Megan Hayes '13 Anja Wittels '13

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.160+0.16

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2009 (33 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
University of California at Berkeley Berkeley 1	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23
University of California at Berkeley Berkeley 2	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24
California State University Channel Islands Channel Islands	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Chapman University Panthers	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41
University of Hawaii Rainbows 1	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
University of Hawaii Rainbows 2	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
California State University Monterey Bay Otters	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Portland State University Vikings	78	78	78	78	78	78	78	78
University of Puget Sound Puget Sound	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83
Purdue University Purdue	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Santa Clara University Santa Clara	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19
University of South Florida Bulls	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
University of Southern California Trojans	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37
Stanford University Cardinal	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
University of Texas Longhorns	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
University of California at Davis UC Davis	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47
University of California at Irvine Anteaters	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28
University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 1	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29
University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 2	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
UC Santa Cruz UC Santa Cruz	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
University of Washington Huskies	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81
Western Washington University Vikings 1	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88
Western Washington University Vikings 2	87	87	87	87	87	87	87	87

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
University of California at Berkeley Berkeley 1	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23
University of California at Berkeley Berkeley 2	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24
California State University Channel Islands Channel Islands	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Chapman University Panthers	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41
University of Hawaii Rainbows 1	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
University of Hawaii Rainbows 2	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
California State University Monterey Bay Otters	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Portland State University Vikings	78	78	78	78	78	78	78	78
University of Puget Sound Puget Sound	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83
Purdue University Purdue	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Santa Clara University Santa Clara	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19
University of South Florida Bulls	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
University of Southern California Trojans	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37
Stanford University Cardinal	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
University of Texas Longhorns	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
University of California at Davis UC Davis	47	47	47	47	47	47	47	47
University of California at Irvine Anteaters	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28
University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 1	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29
University of California at San Diego UC San Diego 2	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
UC Santa Cruz UC Santa Cruz	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
University of Washington Huskies	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81
Western Washington University Vikings 1	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88
Western Washington University Vikings 2	87	87	87	87	87	87	87	87

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Thomas Maher '12	Erik Lund '14
Mustang	Thomas Maher '12	Erik Lund '14
California Maritime Academy	Sean Kelly '12	Jessica Schember '12
Keelhaulers	Matthew Van Rensselaer '13	Nevin Garcia '12
California State University Channel Islands	Andrew Domingos '11	Lisa Marchand '12
Channel Islands	Andrew Domingos '11	Lisa Marchand '12
California State University Long Beach	Dustin Durant '12	Laura Newton '13
CSU Long Beach	Shane Young '14	Chase Young '12
California State University Monterey Bay	Bradley Schoch '11	Natalie Cardoso '13
Otters	Zachary Haney '11	Mark Hurdle '13
Chapman University	Trevor Moseley '13	Lauren Mcnally '12
Panthers	Dane Butera '12	Taylor Forster '13
Portland State University	Leila Whitney '13	Kristine Dewilde '11
Vikings	Mitchell Mclean '12 [1-2, 5-6] Aldyn Brudie '13 [3-4, 7-8]	Aldyn Brudie '13 [1-2, 5-6] John Hart '11 [3-4] Mitchell Mclean '12 [7-8]
Purdue University	George Halsted '07	Jessica Traver '13
Purdue	Nick Heymer '11	Matthew Steiner '13
Santa Clara University	Lindsay Grove '13 [1-4] John Connor Bathen '14 [5-8]	Rachel Flanagan '14 [1-2] Blake Martini '11 [3-4] Lindsay Grove '13 [5-8]
Santa Clara	Brandon Wood '14	Daniel Marks '14
Stanford University	Nick Dugdale '12	Helena Scutt '14
Cardinal	Benjamin Pedrick '11 [1-8]	Tally Buckstaff '14 [1-4] Michelle Yu '14 [5-8]
University of California at Berkeley	Cody Shevitz '12	Jacob Freimer '11
Berkeley 1	Joshua Kew '12	Travis Benton '14
University of California at Berkeley	Megan Hayes '13	Anja Wittels '13
Berkeley 2	Megan Hayes '13	Anja Wittels '13
University of California at Davis	Michael Lazzaro '12 [1-8]	Kayla Beltran '14 [1-2, 5-8] Karisa Chapa '14 [3-4]
UC Davis	Ryan Lee '12	Elizabeth Thome '11
University of California at Irvine	Jack Porter '11	Kate Andersen '15
Anteaters	Rex Cameron '12 [1-8]	Austin Moore '13 [1-4] Blair Johnston '11 [5-8]
University of California at Los Angeles	Judge Ryan '14	William Edwards '12
Bruins 1	Oscar Jasklowski '11	Louise Lehman '14
University of California at Los Angeles	Carmen Bozina '11	Erica Parker '14
Bruins 2	Emelia Pelliccio '13	Nora Brackbill '13
University of California at San Diego	Eric Alamillo '13	Sean Patno '11
UC San Diego 1	Matthew Nguyen '12	John Olson '14
University of California at San Diego	Alicia Bernhard '13	Jennifer Lyons '12
UC San Diego 2	Brooke Sharp '11	Amanda Suarez '13
University of California at Santa Barbara	Matt Foster '11	Christina Nagatani '11
Gauchos 1	Logan Swartz '11	Kimberly Sultz '13
University of California at Santa Barbara	Keely Scates '12	Katherine Sander '13
Gauchos 2	Caitlin Beavers '12	Krystal Treiberg '12
University of Hawaii	Zachary Hester '10	Tahnee Allman '12
Rainbows 1	Adam Pokras '14 [1-8]	Cienna Patmont '12 [1-2, 5-8] Laura Hughes '14 [3-4]
University of Hawaii	Hannah Tuson-Turner '11	Hanne Nagatani '13
Rainbows 2	Madeline Kennedy '14	Lani Johnson '12
University of Oregon	Elliot Drake '12 [1-2, 5-8] Andrew Balter '12 [3-4]	Kaili Swetland '14 [1-2, 5-8] Hyojung Na '12 [3-4]
Ducks	Philip Gordon '12 [1-8]	Taylor Parrish '12 [1-4] Hannah Darrow '13 [5-8]
University of Oregon	Cara Kuhlman '11	Katherine Emberley '13
Women's	Marissa Paulling '11	Caitlyn Bryson '11
University of Puget Sound	Mike Knape '12	Annin Ramsing '13
Puget Sound	John Elam '11 [1-8]	Jen Vroomen '11 [1-4] Kelsey Cohan '13 [5-8]
University of South Florida	Zachary Marks '11	Diana Mae Cabili '11
Bulls	Sean Ross '12 [1-2, 5-8] Will Stocke '13 [3-4]	Christine Sayler '11 [1-2, 5-8]
University of Southern California	Kelsey Rupp '12 [1-5] Stephen Lue '12 [6-8]	Alexander Kraebel '11 [1-5]
Trojans	Cameron Hutcheson '14	Maggie Nolting '14
University of Texas	Caleb Cunningham '12	William Cragin '15
Longhorns	Hazel Mahony '11	Erica Lassen '14
University of Washington	Glen Stellmacher '11 [1-8]	Caylin Cordray '13 [1-5] Brendan Philip '14 [6-8]
Huskies	Thomas Stewart '11	Molly Utter '14
Western Washington University	Bryan Rust '11	Debbi Kenote '13
Vikings 1	Alex Waldron '13	Paul Foley '15
Western Washington University	Erika Vranizan '12	Sara Welsh '12
Vikings 2	Ashley Vincent '12	Angela Gossom '13

Conditions — 04/02/2011 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 76% · Pressure 1011.7 hPa

Temperature

58°F

↑ 61°F ↓ 53°F

Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.4 kn

avg · max 6.9 kn

Gusts to 17.9 kn

From W (276°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1011.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 12 kn · NW 8 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Stanford: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment −0.03 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.00

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.07 ± 0.07)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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