| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears 1 | 5–1 |
| 2 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 4–2 |
| 3 |  |
Jacksonville University | Fins | 3–3 |
| 4 | |
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears 2 | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 23,136 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-17, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 10 of 12 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.526 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.29 ± 0.65: a typical event, more orderly than 75% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 | 1 | 9.10 | Thibault Antonietti / Isabelle Tsuchitori 3.06 Thomas Hall / Kaile Olson 3.20 Sam Bonauto / Timmy Gee 3.12 3–1 Ethan Danielson / Hazel Johnson 2.25 2–0 | 80% | 5–1 (83%) | +0.2 |
| 2 | Roger Williams University Hawks | 3 | 7.74 school +0.29 | Lucy Meagher / Maggie Fleming 2.52 Tavia Smith / Maren Matthews 2.44 William Bailey / Addyson Fisher 2.46 | 37% | 4–2 (67%) | +1.8 |
| 3 | Jacksonville University Fins | 2 | 8.30 | Emily Allen / Reagan Carris 2.77 Matthew King / Madison Mihan 2.56 Owen Bannasch / Ella Wisely 2.97 | 53% | 3–3 (50%) | −0.2 |
| 4 | Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 | 4 | 7.34 | Rebecca Schill / Katharine Kurtz 2.35 Lauren Russler / Holliss Hirsch 2.65 Kyra Phelan / Luisa Louchheim 2.44 0–4 Christine Reimer / Luisa Louchheim 2.11 0–2 | 31% | 0–6 (0%) | −1.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Roger Williams University Hawks | 7.74 | 9.17 | 4–2 | 2.2 | +1.43 | 1.8 | 12% |
| 1 | Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 | 9.10 | 9.34 | 5–1 | 4.8 | +0.24 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 3 | Jacksonville University Fins | 8.30 | 8.16 | 3–3 | 3.2 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 4 | Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 | 7.34 | 4.34 | 0–6 | 1.8 | ≤−3.00 | 3.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Meagher | Roger Williams University | 2.52 | 3.95 | 4–2 | 2.2 | +1.43 | 1.8 | 12% |
| Thibault Antonietti | Bowdoin College | 3.06 | 3.30 | 5–1 | 4.8 | +0.24 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Lauren Russler | Bowdoin College | 2.65 | -0.35 | 0–6 | 1.8 | ≤−3.00 | 3.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Jacksonville University Fins | Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 | 70% | |
| 1 | 2 | Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 | Roger Williams University Hawks | 84% | |
| 1 | 3 | Roger Williams University Hawks | Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 | 57% | |
| 1 | 4 | Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 | Jacksonville University Fins | 75% | |
| 1 | 5 | Roger Williams University Hawks | Jacksonville University Fins | 36% | upset |
| 1 | 6 | Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 | Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 | 80% | |
| 2 | 7 | Jacksonville University Fins | Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 | 70% | |
| 2 | 8 | Roger Williams University Hawks | Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 | 16% | upset |
| 2 | 9 | Roger Williams University Hawks | Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 | 57% | |
| 2 | 10 | Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 | Jacksonville University Fins | 75% | |
| 2 | 11 | Jacksonville University Fins | Roger Williams University Hawks | 63% | |
| 2 | 12 | Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 | Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 | 80% |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | Hawks | Fins | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 | 3–3 | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 2–1 | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 | 3–3 | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | Hawks | Fins | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 | 2–4 | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 2–1 | W | ✕ | L | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 2–1 | L | W | ✕ | L |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 | 2–4 | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Polar Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Polar Bears 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Fins | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Polar Bears 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Polar Bears 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Polar Bears 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Polar Bears 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Fins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Polar Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Polar Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears 1 | Ethan Danielson '26 Sam Bonauto '25 Thibault Antonietti '24 Thomas Hall '25 |
Hazel Johnson '27 Timmy Gee '25 Isabelle Tsuchitori '26 Kaile Olson '27 |
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks | Lucy Meagher '27 Tavia Smith '27 William Bailey '24 |
Maggie Fleming '27 Maren Matthews '26 Addyson Fisher '27 |
|
Jacksonville University | Fins | Emily Allen '25 Matthew King '24 Owen Bannasch '26 |
Reagan Carris '26 Madison Mihan '27 Ella Wisely '27 |
|
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears 2 | Christine Reimer '24 Kyra Phelan '26 Lauren Russler '26 Rebecca Schill '27 |
Luisa Louchheim '25 Holliss Hirsch '25 Katharine Kurtz '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
