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Montotype Trophy - NEISA Singlehanded Championship

# SchoolSailor TOT
1 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Nicholas Reeser '25 54
2 Harvard University Harvard University Robby Meek '27 75
3 Brown University Brown University Guthrie Braun '26 80
4 Yale University Yale University Mathias Reimer '27 86
5 Brown University Brown University Leyton Borcherding '25 90
6 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Ben Sheppard '27 98
7 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Mathieu Dale '25 106
8 Brown University Brown University Connor Nelson '24 120
9 Tufts University Tufts University Devon Owen '27 130
10 Tufts University Tufts University Wyatt Bischoff '27 135
11 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Kyle Pfrang '26 152
12 Yale University Yale University Nicholas Davies '24 154
13 Tufts University Tufts University Adrien Bellanger '25 156
14 Brown University Brown University Martins Atilla '27 172
15 Connecticut College Connecticut College Henry Scholz '27 182
16 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Ethan Danielson '26 188
17 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Michelangelo Vecchio '27 193
18 Tufts University Tufts University Kurt Stuebe '27 204 LOP
19 Boston College Boston College Aidan Cunningham '26 206
20 Boston College Boston College Tor Svendsen '27 206
21 Connecticut College Connecticut College Duncan Craine '26 215
22 Tufts University Tufts University Matthew Wallace '25 222
23 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Dominik Spinelli '27 231
24 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Alexander Horne '26 233
25 McGill University McGill University Mikhail Lavrenov '26 242
26 Yale University Yale University Alex Adams '26 245
27 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Emil Tullberg '25 255
28 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Kevin Gosselin '27 273
29 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University William Bailey '24 276
30 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Luke Zylinski '26 287
31 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Drew Mastovsky '26 305
32 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Matthew Elliott '24 312
33 Northeastern University Northeastern University Tyler Meadows '25 340
34 Connecticut College Connecticut College Jake Demos '27 340
35 Harvard University Harvard University James Bergstrom '27 352
SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Nicholas Reeser '25 5 3 BKD 6 6 2 3 2 17 3 3 54
Harvard University Harvard University Robby Meek '27 3 4 11 4 3 10 4 6 1 24 5 75
Brown University Brown University Guthrie Braun '26 2 2 7 3 1 8 10 18 7 8 14 80
Yale University Yale University Mathias Reimer '27 1 1 2 1 2 BKD 19 13 12 27 7 86
Brown University Brown University Leyton Borcherding '25 6 15 3 11 7 3 17 22 3 2 1 90
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Ben Sheppard '27 10 5 14 5 10 13 6 11 11 1 12 98
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Mathieu Dale '25 14 12 1 8 4 9 12 10 9 25 2 106
Brown University Brown University Connor Nelson '24 7 9 6 2 11 1 28 7 23 17 9 120
Tufts University Tufts University Devon Owen '27 4 6 25 21 19 7 1 14 8 7 18 130
Tufts University Tufts University Wyatt Bischoff '27 12 11 17 14 RAF 22 5 4 4 6 4 135
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Kyle Pfrang '26 25 7 5 32 23 11 9 1 16 10 13 152
Yale University Yale University Nicholas Davies '24 9 14 22 7 5 14 13 15 6 34 15 154
Tufts University Tufts University Adrien Bellanger '25 8 10 8 12 9 17 11 26 20 12 23 156
Brown University Brown University Martins Atilla '27 23 28 26 16 BKD 4 2 3 2 29 20 172
Connecticut College Connecticut College Henry Scholz '27 11 8 16 10 8 6 18 16 OCS OCS 17 182
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Ethan Danielson '26 17 22 4 20 12 5 14 21 OCS 16 21 188
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Michelangelo Vecchio '27 15 13 13 15 25 12 22 12 RAF 19 11 193
Tufts University Tufts University Kurt Stuebe '27 18 29 18 13 20 27 21 9 5 18 6 204 LOP
Boston College Boston College Aidan Cunningham '26 13 25 10 9 15 23 29 34 19 5 24 206
Boston College Boston College Tor Svendsen '27 24 16 9 19 17 26 30 8 13 11 33 206
Connecticut College Connecticut College Duncan Craine '26 16 33 32 17 31 21 7 5 18 13 22 215
Tufts University Tufts University Matthew Wallace '25 21 26 23 DNF 18 18 15 20 25 4 16 222
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Dominik Spinelli '27 28 17 12 34 22 28 8 17 OCS 21 8 231
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Alexander Horne '26 26 23 20 18 14 25 BKD 23 15 22 25 233
McGill University McGill University Mikhail Lavrenov '26 20 21 28 25 21 24 31 19 14 9 30 242
Yale University Yale University Alex Adams '26 32 18 33 26 13 20 20 30 10 33 10 245
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Emil Tullberg '25 19 20 15 31 26 19 27 31 21 20 26 255
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Kevin Gosselin '27 33 19 21 23 16 15 24 24 OCS 30 32 273
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University William Bailey '24 29 24 30 27 28 33 25 25 22 14 19 276
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Luke Zylinski '26 22 27 29 22 30 30 16 29 28 26 28 287
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Drew Mastovsky '26 27 31 31 33 27 29 23 28 27 15 34 305
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Matthew Elliott '24 34 34 27 28 24 32 26 27 30 23 27 312
Northeastern University Northeastern University Tyler Meadows '25 30 32 34 24 32 DNF 32 35 26 28 31 340
Connecticut College Connecticut College Jake Demos '27 31 30 OCS 29 29 31 33 32 29 31 29 340
Harvard University Harvard University James Bergstrom '27 DNF 35 24 30 33 DNF 34 33 24 32 35 352

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  35 boats · 11 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Robby Meek '27Harvard University Crimson 111/114.574.54−0.0499th → 99th0.029%6.8 / 8.8
2Guthrie Braun '26Brown University Bears 311/113.804.55+0.7494th → 99th2.110%7.3 / 12.2
3Nicholas Reeser '25U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 111/114.165.06+0.9097th → 99th2.523%7.8 / 10.6
4Leyton Borcherding '25Brown University Bears 211/113.134.23+1.1084th → 98th4.32%8.2 / 15.8
5Ben Sheppard '27Dartmouth College11/112.834.27+1.4477th → 98th7.02%8.9 / 17.1
6Mathieu Dale '25Roger Williams University Hawks 111/113.344.07+0.7289th → 95th2.010%9.6 / 14.5
7Connor Nelson '24Brown University Bears 111/113.913.45−0.4694th → 89th1.044%10.9 / 11.8
8Mathias Reimer '27Yale University Bulldogs 211/113.614.08+0.4792nd → 95th0.830%11.0 / 13.3
9Devon Owen '27Tufts University Jumbos 511/113.093.51+0.4283rd → 90th0.717%11.8 / 15.8
10Wyatt Bischoff '27Tufts University Jumbos 411/112.593.94+1.3568th → 95th5.78%12.3 / 18.3
11Kyle Pfrang '26Roger Williams University Hawks 211/112.882.92+0.0478th → 79th0.029%13.8 / 16.9
12Nicholas Davies '24Yale University Bulldogs 311/113.322.94−0.3888th → 80th0.647%14.0 / 14.6
13Adrien Bellanger '25Tufts University Jumbos 111/112.653.28+0.6470th → 86th1.624%14.2 / 18.0
14Henry Scholz '27Connecticut College Camels 111/113.053.71+0.6783rd → 93rd1.556%16.5 / 16.1
15Kurt Stuebe '27Tufts University Jumbos 311/112.852.83−0.0278th → 77th0.047%16.7 / 17.2
16Ethan Danielson '26Bowdoin College Polar Bears 111/112.653.21+0.5670th → 85th1.240%17.1 / 18.2
17Martins Atilla '27Brown University Bears 411/113.132.83−0.3084th → 77th0.462%17.2 / 15.7
18Michelangelo Vecchio '27Bowdoin College Polar Bears 211/112.733.15+0.4372nd → 84th0.750%17.5 / 17.5
19Aidan Cunningham '26Boston College Eagles 111/112.502.28−0.2263rd → 59th0.249%18.7 / 18.9
19Tor Svendsen '27Boston College Eagles 211/112.722.37−0.3572nd → 61st0.660%18.7 / 17.8
21Duncan Craine '26Connecticut College Camels 311/111.682.05+0.3741st → 53rd0.525%19.5 / 22.9
22Matthew Wallace '25Tufts University Jumbos 211/112.692.69−0.0071st → 71st0.068%20.2 / 17.8
23Dominik Spinelli '27U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 411/112.342.19−0.1560th → 57th0.160%21.0 / 19.6
24Mikhail Lavrenov '26McGill University11/111.442.23+0.7935th → 58th2.434%22.0 / 23.8
25Alex Adams '26Yale University Bulldogs 111/112.261.87−0.3959th → 47th0.770%22.3 / 20.1
26Alexander Horne '26Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 211/112.502.53+0.0364th → 66th0.075%22.5 / 18.9
27Emil Tullberg '25Salve Regina University11/112.322.10−0.2260th → 55th0.273%23.2 / 19.8
28Kevin Gosselin '27U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 311/112.611.95−0.6668th → 50th2.190%24.8 / 18.2
29William Bailey '24Roger Williams University Hawks 411/112.161.67−0.4956th → 41st1.180%25.1 / 20.4
30Luke Zylinski '26U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 211/112.181.67−0.5157th → 41st1.386%26.1 / 20.4
31Drew Mastovsky '26Roger Williams University Hawks 311/112.161.34−0.8257th → 31st3.793%27.7 / 20.2
32Matthew Elliott '24Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 111/112.110.93−1.1755th → 21st6.597%28.4 / 20.9
33Jake Demos '27Connecticut College Camels 211/111.201.08−0.1228th → 25th0.192%30.9 / 24.9
33Tyler Meadows '25Northeastern University11/111.160.69−0.4727th → 17th0.891%30.9 / 25.2
35James Bergstrom '27Harvard University Crimson 211/110.410.10−0.3112th → 7th0.285%32.0 / 28.1

Conditions — 09/16/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1005.9 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.9 kn
avg  ·  max 14.2 kn
Gusts to 28.8 kn
From WNW (302°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine1.2 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1005.9 hPa Rain0.25 in

What this breeze does at Brown — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Brown in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (78 labelled fleet-race days at Brown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →