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Sunshine City Team Race (Eckerd)

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 8–1
2 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 6–3
3 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 4–5
4 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 0–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 22,767 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 13 of 18 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.468 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.50 ± 0.41: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 11% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Bowdoin College
Polar Bears		19.36Thomas Hall / Kaile Olson 3.12
Thibault Antonietti / Isabelle Tsuchitori 3.04
Sam Bonauto / Timmy Gee 3.11		94%8–1 (89%)−0.5
2Roger Williams University
Hawks		27.65
school +0.29		Lucy Meagher / Maggie Fleming 2.44
Tavia Smith / Maren Matthews 2.42
William Bailey / Addyson Fisher 2.45		67%6–3 (67%)−0.0
3University of South Florida
Bulls		44.79
school −0.12		Andreas Keswater / Melissa Janes 2.27
Jordan Byrd / Dana Aljasir 2.07
Garrett Floerchinger / Emmy Digiacomo		15%4–5 (44%)+2.6
4University of California at Berkeley
Bears		35.26
school +0.28		Wilton Lawton / Aliyah Al-Khafaji 1.55
Will Cornell / Emerson Marquez 1.75
Katherine Olsen / Alyssa Cunningham Barkus 1.59		24%0–9 (0%)−2.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
3University of South Florida4.797.124–51.4+2.334.71%
2Roger Williams University7.657.596–36.0−0.060.077%
1Bowdoin College9.368.618–18.5−0.760.391%
4University of California at Berkeley5.262.260–92.1≤−3.004.2>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Andreas KeswaterUniversity of South Florida2.274.604–51.4+2.334.71%
Jordan ByrdUniversity of South Florida2.074.404–51.4+2.334.71%
Garrett FloerchingerUniversity of South Florida0.542.874–51.4+2.334.71%
Lucy MeagherRoger Williams University2.442.386–36.0−0.060.077%
Thibault AntoniettiBowdoin College3.042.298–18.5−0.760.391%
Katherine OlsenUniversity of California at Berkeley1.59-1.410–92.1≤−3.004.2>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Roger Williams UniversityUniversity of California at Berkeley92%
12Bowdoin CollegeUniversity of South Florida99%
13University of South FloridaUniversity of California at Berkeley39%upset
14Bowdoin CollegeRoger Williams University85%
15Roger Williams UniversityUniversity of South Florida95%
16Bowdoin CollegeUniversity of California at Berkeley98%
27Bowdoin CollegeRoger Williams University85%
28University of South FloridaUniversity of California at Berkeley39%upset
29University of South FloridaRoger Williams University5%upset
210Bowdoin CollegeUniversity of California at Berkeley98%
211Bowdoin CollegeUniversity of South Florida99%
212Roger Williams UniversityUniversity of California at Berkeley92%
313Roger Williams UniversityBowdoin College15%upset
314University of South FloridaUniversity of California at Berkeley38%upset
315Roger Williams UniversityUniversity of South Florida95%
316Bowdoin CollegeUniversity of California at Berkeley98%
317Bowdoin CollegeUniversity of South Florida99%
318Roger Williams UniversityUniversity of California at Berkeley92%

Round 1

TeamRec.BearsHawksBullsBears
Bowdoin College Polar Bears3–0✕WWW
Roger Williams University Hawks2–1L✕WW
University of South Florida Bulls1–2LL✕W
University of California at Berkeley Bears0–3LLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.BearsHawksBullsBears
Bowdoin College Polar Bears3–0✕WWW
Roger Williams University Hawks1–2L✕LW
University of South Florida Bulls2–1LW✕W
University of California at Berkeley Bears0–3LLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.BearsHawksBullsBears
Bowdoin College Polar Bears2–1✕LWW
Roger Williams University Hawks3–0W✕WW
University of South Florida Bulls1–2LL✕W
University of California at Berkeley Bears0–3LLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
2 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
3 University of South Florida Bulls 2-3-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-5-6
4 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-3 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 4-5-6
5 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
6 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
7 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2-3-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 1-5-6
8 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
9 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-6 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-5
10 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-5
11 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
12 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-5
13 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-6
14 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-5
15 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-3 def. University of South Florida Bulls 4-5-6
16 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-5
17 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
18 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-5

Conditions — 03/16/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 87%  ·  Pressure 1015.9 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 69°F
Feels like 79°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.1 kn
avg  ·  max 8.4 kn
Gusts to 16.9 kn
From WSW (241°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine2.7 hrs Humidity87% Pressure1015.9 hPa Rain0.15 in

What this breeze does at Eckerd — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Eckerd in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Eckerd by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (55 labelled fleet-race days at Eckerd).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →