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Sharpe Trophy Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 13–1
2 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 12–2
3 Brown University Brown University Bears 8–6
4 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 8–6
5 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 7–7
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 6–8
7 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1–13
8 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 16,158 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 46 of 56 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.381 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.20 ± 0.24: a typical event, more orderly than 66% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Roger Williams University
Hawks		311.17
school +0.35		Spencer Cartwright / Rachel Holick 3.72
Cameron Wood / Emily Gildea 3.61
Aidan Hoogland / Molly Matthews 3.49 11–1
Aidan Hoogland / Hank Bailey 3.36 2–0		71%13–1 (93%)+3.0
2Yale University
Bulldogs		111.92
school +0.22		Shawn Harvey / Sonia Lingos-Utley 4.18
Teddy Nicolosi / Anisha Arcot 3.76
Jack Egan / Catherine Webb 10–2
Jack Egan / Benjamin Markert 2–0		84%12–2 (86%)+0.3
3Brown University
Bears		211.26
school +0.15, home +0.35		Olivia Belda / Emma Montgomery 3.53
Connor Nelson / Julia Reynolds 3.61
Jack Murphy / Madeleine Mcgrath 3.59 4–4
Jack Murphy / Madeleine Montagner 3.63 4–2		74%8–6 (57%)−2.4
4Dartmouth College
Big Green		410.59
school +0.23		Robert Bragg / Eloise Burn 3.71
Maddie Hawkins / Yumi Yoshiyasu 3.73
Oliver Hurwitz / Drew Clutterbuck 6–2
William Michels / Drew Clutterbuck 2–4		61%8–6 (57%)−0.5
5Harvard University
Crimson		69.09Henry Burnes / Christopher Wang 3.44
Eric Hansen / Ariel Wang 2.55
Jonas Nelle / Pomaika'I Ogata 3.01		32%7–7 (50%)+2.5
6Tufts University
Jumbos		59.83Ansgar Jordan / Ann Sheridan 3.30
Samuel Merson / Celia Byrne 3.33
Alex Fasolo / Amelia Carlson 3.15		47%6–8 (43%)−0.5
7Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers		78.39
school −0.11		Sam Bruce / Maaya Prasad
Maks Groom / Samantha Karlson
John Ped / Abigail Vanlonkhuyzen 2.68		20%1–13 (7%)−1.8
8Northeastern University
Huskies		87.79
school +0.17		Ted Bjerregaard / Abigail Thress 2.48
Adrian Van Der Wal / Emma Cole 2.57
Caleb Niles / Reid Wishner 2.50		12%1–13 (7%)−0.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Roger Williams University11.1713.1813–110.0+2.003.83%
5Harvard University9.0910.217–74.5+1.122.18%
2Yale University11.9212.0912–211.7+0.170.059%
4Dartmouth College10.5910.388–68.5−0.200.174%
6Tufts University9.839.606–86.5−0.230.175%
8Northeastern University7.797.161–131.7−0.630.385%
3Brown University11.2610.208–610.4−1.061.998%
7Massachusetts Institute of Technology8.396.911–132.8−1.481.798%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Spencer CartwrightRoger Williams University3.725.7313–110.0+2.003.83%
Aidan HooglandRoger Williams University3.495.5013–110.0+2.003.83%
Eric HansenHarvard University2.553.667–74.5+1.122.18%
Jonas NelleHarvard University3.014.127–74.5+1.122.18%
Ansgar JordanTufts University3.303.076–86.5−0.230.175%
Alex FasoloTufts University3.152.916–86.5−0.230.175%
Adrian Van Der WalNortheastern University2.571.941–131.7−0.630.385%
Olivia BeldaBrown University3.532.478–610.4−1.061.998%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Tufts UniversityDartmouth College40%upset
12Brown UniversityHarvard University90%
13Roger Williams UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology95%
14Yale UniversityNortheastern University99%
15Brown UniversityDartmouth College72%
16Roger Williams UniversityTufts University80%
17Harvard UniversityNortheastern University79%
18Yale UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology97%
19Roger Williams UniversityBrown University48%upset
110Dartmouth CollegeNortheastern University93%
111Tufts UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology82%
112Yale UniversityHarvard University95%
113Roger Williams UniversityNortheastern University96%
114Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology95%
115Dartmouth CollegeHarvard University79%
116Tufts UniversityYale University11%upset
117Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyNortheastern University64%
118Roger Williams UniversityHarvard University89%
119Brown UniversityTufts University80%
120Yale UniversityDartmouth College73%
121Harvard UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology67%
122Tufts UniversityNortheastern University89%
123Roger Williams UniversityDartmouth College58%
124Yale UniversityBrown University66%
125Harvard UniversityTufts University32%upset
126Dartmouth CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology92%
127Brown UniversityNortheastern University97%
128Yale UniversityRoger Williams University68%
229Dartmouth CollegeTufts University64%
230Harvard UniversityBrown University10%upset
231Roger Williams UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology94%
232Yale UniversityNortheastern University98%
233Dartmouth CollegeBrown University30%upset
234Roger Williams UniversityTufts University80%
235Harvard UniversityNortheastern University78%
236Yale UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology97%
237Roger Williams UniversityBrown University48%upset
238Dartmouth CollegeNortheastern University93%
239Tufts UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology80%
240Yale UniversityHarvard University94%
241Roger Williams UniversityNortheastern University96%
242Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology95%
243Dartmouth CollegeHarvard University79%
244Yale UniversityTufts University89%
245Northeastern UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology35%upset
246Roger Williams UniversityHarvard University89%
247Brown UniversityTufts University80%
248Yale UniversityDartmouth College73%
249Harvard UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology66%
250Tufts UniversityNortheastern University88%
251Roger Williams UniversityDartmouth College58%
252Yale UniversityBrown University66%
253Harvard UniversityTufts University32%upset
254Dartmouth CollegeMassachusetts Institute of Technology92%
255Brown UniversityNortheastern University97%
256Roger Williams UniversityYale University32%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.HawksBulldogsBearsGreenCrimsonJumbosEngineersHuskies
Roger Williams University Hawks6–1✕LWWWWWW
Yale University Bulldogs6–1W✕WWWLWW
Brown University Bears5–2LL✕WWWWW
Dartmouth College Big Green3–4LLL✕WLWW
Harvard University Crimson3–4LLLL✕WWW
Tufts University Jumbos4–3LWLWL✕WW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers1–6LLLLLL✕W
Northeastern University Huskies0–7LLLLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.HawksBulldogsBearsGreenCrimsonJumbosEngineersHuskies
Roger Williams University Hawks7–0✕WWWWWWW
Yale University Bulldogs6–1L✕WWWWWW
Brown University Bears3–4LL✕LLWWW
Dartmouth College Big Green5–2LLW✕WWWW
Harvard University Crimson4–3LLWL✕WWW
Tufts University Jumbos2–5LLLLL✕WW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers0–7LLLLLL✕L
Northeastern University Huskies1–6LLLLLLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 1-5-6
2 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Harvard University Crimson 4-5-6
3 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-5
4 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Northeastern University Huskies 4-5-6
5 Brown University Bears 1-2-6 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-5
6 Roger Williams University Hawks 2-3-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 1-5-6
7 Harvard University Crimson 1-3-6 def. Northeastern University Huskies 2-4-5
8 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4-5-6
9 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-5
10 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-6
11 Tufts University Jumbos 1-4-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-6
12 Yale University Bulldogs 1-3-4 def. Harvard University Crimson 2-5-6
13 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-3 def. Northeastern University Huskies 4-5-6
14 Brown University Bears 1-4-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-6
15 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-6
16 Tufts University Jumbos 2-5-6 def. Yale University Bulldogs 1-3-4 DSQ
17 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-6
18 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-6
19 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 4-5-6
20 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 3-5-6
21 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
22 Tufts University Jumbos 1-3-5 def. Northeastern University Huskies 2-4-6
23 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-5 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 2-4-6
24 Yale University Bulldogs 1-3-4 def. Brown University Bears 2-5-6
25 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
26 Dartmouth College Big Green 3-4-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-6 RAF
27 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-5-6
28 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 1-5-6
29 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
30 Harvard University Crimson 2-3-4 def. Brown University Bears 1-5-6
31 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-4-6
32 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Northeastern University Huskies 4-5-6
33 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-4-5 def. Brown University Bears 2-3-6
34 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-4-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-6
35 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-3 def. Northeastern University Huskies 4-5-6
36 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-5-6
37 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-6
38 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-5-6
39 Tufts University Jumbos 1-3-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-4-5
40 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Harvard University Crimson 4-5-6
41 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-3 def. Northeastern University Huskies 4-5-6
42 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
43 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-2-4 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-5-6
44 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
45 Northeastern University Huskies 1-3-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-4-5
46 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-5 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-6
47 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-5-6
48 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 1-5-6
49 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-5-6
50 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-5
51 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-4-5 def. Dartmouth College Big Green 2-3-6 DSQ
52 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Brown University Bears 1-5-6
53 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 4-5-6
54 Dartmouth College Big Green 1-3-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-4-6
55 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-5-6 DNF
56 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-6 def. Yale University Bulldogs 2-4-5

Conditions — 03/05/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 40%  ·  Pressure 1032.6 hPa

Temperature

38°F
↑ 44°F   ↓ 25°F
Feels like 29°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.0 kn
avg  ·  max 6.7 kn
Gusts to 14.0 kn
From WSW (258°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity40% Pressure1032.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Brown — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Brown in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (78 labelled fleet-race days at Brown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →