| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 7–0 |
| 2 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 5–2 |
| 3 |  |
Dartmouth College | Big Green | 5–2 |
| 4 |  |
Yale University | Bulldogs | 4–3 |
| 5 |  |
Connecticut College | Camels | 3–4 |
| 6 |  |
Boston University | Terriers | 2–5 |
| 7 |  |
Northeastern University | Huskies | 1–6 |
| 8 |  |
University of Vermont | Catamounts | 1–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 13,225 team race matches sailed before 2019-03-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 20 of 28 matches (71%) with a log-loss of 0.565 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.35 ± 0.37: a typical event, more orderly than 16% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tufts University | 9.42 | 12.42 | 7–0 | 5.1 | ≥+3.00 | 3.4 | 8% |
| 5 | Connecticut College | 7.07 | 8.25 | 3–4 | 1.7 | +1.17 | 1.1 | 19% |
| 7 | Northeastern University | 5.54 | 6.57 | 1–6 | 0.4 | +1.03 | 0.5 | 36% |
| 4 | Yale University | 8.08 | 8.84 | 4–3 | 3.0 | +0.76 | 0.6 | 31% |
| 2 | Boston College | 9.38 | 9.41 | 5–2 | 5.0 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 3 | Dartmouth College | 9.47 | 9.35 | 5–2 | 5.1 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 6 | Boston University | 9.09 | 6.90 | 2–5 | 4.6 | −2.19 | 4.0 | >99% |
| 8 | University of Vermont | 8.07 | 5.81 | 1–6 | 3.1 | −2.26 | 3.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austen Freda | Tufts University | 2.65 | 5.65 | 7–0 | 5.1 | ≥+3.00 | 3.4 | 8% |
| Ansgar Jordan | Tufts University | 2.96 | 5.96 | 7–0 | 5.1 | ≥+3.00 | 3.4 | 8% |
| Walter Henry | Connecticut College | 2.26 | 3.43 | 3–4 | 1.7 | +1.17 | 1.1 | 19% |
| William Bedford | Connecticut College | 1.99 | 3.16 | 3–4 | 1.7 | +1.17 | 1.1 | 19% |
| Zachary Bresnick | Northeastern University | 2.15 | 3.18 | 1–6 | 0.4 | +1.03 | 0.5 | 36% |
| Bridget Maguire | Northeastern University | 0.88 | 1.90 | 1–6 | 0.4 | +1.03 | 0.5 | 36% |
| Dylan Dimarchi | Yale University | 2.91 | 3.68 | 4–3 | 3.0 | +0.76 | 0.6 | 31% |
| Max Clapp | Dartmouth College | 3.05 | 2.93 | 5–2 | 5.1 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 74% |
| Sam Tobin | Yale University | 2.21 | 1.63 | 1–3 | 1.4 | −0.59 | 0.2 | 87% |
| Alex Moreno | Boston University | 2.86 | 0.67 | 2–5 | 4.6 | −2.19 | 4.0 | >99% |
| Thomas Harden | University of Vermont | 2.88 | 0.62 | 1–6 | 3.1 | −2.26 | 3.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Jumbos | Eagles | Green | Bulldogs | Camels | Terriers | Huskies | Catamounts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tufts University Jumbos | 7–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Boston College Eagles | 5–2 | L | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W | W |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 5–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Yale University Bulldogs | 4–3 | L | W | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| Connecticut College Camels | 3–4 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W | W | L |
| Boston University Terriers | 2–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Northeastern University Huskies | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | W | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Big Green | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Camels | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Terriers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Big Green | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Camels | 2-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Terriers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Eagles | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Camels | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Big Green | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Huskies | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Jumbos | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-3-6 DSQ |
| 13 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 1-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Camels | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Huskies | 2-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Eagles | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 2-3-6 |
| 21 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Catamounts | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Big Green | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Eagles | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Camels | 1-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Huskies | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Big Green | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Catamounts | 2-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Camels | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
