University of Vermont '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.65 (fleet 3.67) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 34–59 (37%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 11–17 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 5 | 19–31 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 4–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (93 matches) the record is 34–59 against 37.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.1). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | The Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.98 | 3.91 | 8–6 | 5.4 | +0.93 | 1.7 | 10% |
| 2020-02-29 | Hap Moore Trophy | skipper | 3.07 | 1.90 | 3–11 | 5.6 | −1.16 | 2.1 | 98% |
| 2019-04-06 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.84 | 3.56 | 7–7 | 5.0 | +0.73 | 1.1 | 17% |
| 2019-03-30 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 2.88 | 0.62 | 1–6 | 3.1 | −2.26 | 3.0 | >99% |
| 2019-03-23 | Staake Team Race NE Qualifier | skipper | 2.92 | 1.27 | 4–4 | 5.9 | −1.65 | 2.3 | 99% |
| 2019-03-16 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.84 | 2.32 | 3–11 | 4.3 | −0.52 | 0.5 | 86% |
| 2019-03-09 | Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | skipper | 2.71 | 3.21 | 4–3 | 3.4 | +0.50 | 0.2 | 44% |
| 2018-03-31 | Harpswell Sound Team Race | skipper | 1.98 | 1.83 | 4–11 | 4.4 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| The Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Hap Moore Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.2 | 3.85 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.0 | 4.04 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.8 | 4.44 |
| Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 10.0 | 3.62 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | B | 16 | 10.3 | 2.97 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.8 | 3.61 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 4 | 12.0 | 2.92 |
| The 79th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.4 | 3.55 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | Skipper | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| Staake Team Race NE Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 20 | 50% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.7 | 3.24 |
| NEISA Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.9 | 3.19 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| Jumbo Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| 2019 Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.1 | 2.65 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.5 | 3.46 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 13.8 | 2.66 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.2 | 2.85 |
| The Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | C | 3 | 8.3 | 3.33 |
| Hewitt Trophy Division 2 | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.0 | 3.48 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.7 | 3.98 |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 3.0 | 2.68 |
| The 78th Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 1 | 14.0 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Toole | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.0 | 2.83 |
| Little 3 | Skipper | A | 8 | 1.6 | 2.44 |
| Harpswell Sound Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| Coast Guard J70 Open Keelboat | Crew | A | 16 | 3.0 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 13 | 16.4 | 2.18 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.0 | 2.63 |
| Fall Foliage | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.0 | 2.71 |
| The Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 2 | 6.0 | 2.77 |
| Central Series | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.1 | 4.49 |
| 75th Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 16 | 5.4 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 7 | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.0 | -0.61 |
| NEISA J70 Two-Day Invite Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 3.3 | — |
| Coast Guard J70 Invitational Keelboat | Crew | A | 16 | 4.2 | — |
| Alymers | Skipper | A | 16 | 2.8 | 3.28 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.5 | 2.82 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.8 | 2.31 |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.0 | 2.67 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
