Staake Team Race NE Qualifier

HostConnecticut College
Date03/23/2019
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Connecticut College	Camels	15–5
2	University of Rhode Island	Rams	14–6
3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	11–9
4	University of Vermont	Catamounts	10–10
5	Northeastern University	Huskies	9–11
6	Salve Regina University	Seahawks	1–19

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 12,846 team race matches sailed before 2019-03-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 44 of 60 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.523 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.26 ± 0.26: a typical event, more orderly than 21% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Connecticut College Camels	1	9.97 school +0.18, home +0.35	Carter Pemberton / Cecilia Moreira 3.69 Thomas Whittemore / Paige Dunlevy 2.88 9–3 Cj Mckenna / Katherine (Katie) Rodger 3.08 9–3 Thomas Whittemore / Walter Henry 2.87 6–2 Gordon Gurnell / Katherine (Katie) Rodger 2.41 6–2	79%	15–5 (75%)	−0.8
2	University of Rhode Island Rams	2	9.22 school −0.43	Brendan Read / Lauren Richards 3.19 Dakota Northrup / Ryan Geib 3.40 Luke Ingalls / Ian Nannig 3.02	67%	14–6 (70%)	+0.6
3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3	8.96 school −0.21	Gage Schoenherr / Christina Nothacker 3.13 Caelan Juckniess / Brian Nelson 2.49 Mack Fox / Anna Morin 3.50 8–4 Mack Fox / Walter Gnann 3.54 3–5	60%	11–9 (55%)	−1.0
4	University of Vermont Catamounts	4	8.88	Jan Kite-Powell / Emma Janson 3.20 Colin Richards / Amanda Engeman 2.91 Cameron Nash / Ryan Soucy 2.60 3–5 Thomas Harden / Gabrielle Myers 2.92 4–4 Cameron Nash / Gabrielle Myers 2.65 3–1	55%	10–10 (50%)	−1.1
5	Northeastern University Huskies	5	7.82	Santiago Hirschmann / Jon Ewing 2.44 Jackson Hamilton / Jacqueline Berlin 3.06 5–11 Ted Bjerregaard / Anne Wieland 2.24 4–8 Ted Bjerregaard / Alexandra Nygren 2.34 5–3 Jackson Hamilton / Ellen Reagan 2.87 4–0	34%	9–11 (45%)	+2.3
6	Salve Regina University Seahawks	6	5.81 school −0.77	Jennifer Killian / Allie Deluca 2.01 Joey Lark / Peter Cronin 2.08 Grace Vincens / Jennifer Ryan 2.34	5%	1–19 (5%)	+0.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	Northeastern University	7.82	8.51	9–11	6.7	+0.69	1.2	15%
2	University of Rhode Island	9.22	9.38	14–6	13.4	+0.16	0.1	49%
6	Salve Regina University	5.81	5.80	1–19	1.0	−0.00	0.0	65%
3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	8.96	8.71	11–9	12.0	−0.25	0.2	77%
1	Connecticut College	9.97	9.70	15–5	15.8	−0.27	0.2	79%
4	University of Vermont	8.88	8.56	10–10	11.1	−0.31	0.2	80%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Jennifer Killian	Salve Regina University	2.01	2.01	1–19	1.0	−0.00	0.0	65%
Joey Lark	Salve Regina University	2.08	2.08	1–19	1.0	−0.00	0.0	65%
Grace Vincens	Salve Regina University	2.34	2.34	1–19	1.0	−0.00	0.0	65%
Gage Schoenherr	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.13	2.87	11–9	12.0	−0.25	0.2	77%
Thomas Whittemore	Connecticut College	2.88	2.61	15–5	15.8	−0.27	0.2	79%
Thomas Harden	University of Vermont	2.92	1.27	4–4	5.9	−1.65	2.3	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Connecticut College	Salve Regina University	99%
1	2	Northeastern University	University of Vermont	27%	upset
1	3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	43%	upset
1	4	University of Vermont	Connecticut College	19%	upset
1	5	University of Rhode Island	Salve Regina University	97%
1	6	Northeastern University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	24%	upset
1	7	University of Rhode Island	University of Vermont	62%
1	8	Connecticut College	Northeastern University	92%
1	9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Salve Regina University	96%
1	10	University of Rhode Island	Northeastern University	79%
1	11	University of Vermont	Salve Regina University	96%
1	12	Connecticut College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	63%
1	13	Northeastern University	Salve Regina University	87%
1	14	University of Rhode Island	Connecticut College	42%	upset
1	15	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	48%	upset
2	16	Connecticut College	Salve Regina University	99%
2	17	University of Vermont	Northeastern University	73%
2	18	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	43%	upset
2	19	University of Vermont	Connecticut College	18%	upset
2	20	University of Rhode Island	Salve Regina University	97%
2	21	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Northeastern University	76%
2	22	University of Rhode Island	University of Vermont	62%
2	23	Northeastern University	Connecticut College	8%	upset
2	24	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Salve Regina University	96%
2	25	Northeastern University	University of Rhode Island	21%	upset
2	26	University of Vermont	Salve Regina University	96%
2	27	Connecticut College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	64%
2	28	Northeastern University	Salve Regina University	87%
2	29	Connecticut College	University of Rhode Island	59%
2	30	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	48%	upset
3	31	Connecticut College	Salve Regina University	99%
3	32	University of Vermont	Northeastern University	72%
3	33	University of Rhode Island	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	57%
3	34	Connecticut College	University of Vermont	82%
3	35	University of Rhode Island	Salve Regina University	97%
3	36	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Northeastern University	75%
3	37	University of Vermont	University of Rhode Island	38%	upset
3	38	Connecticut College	Northeastern University	92%
3	39	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Salve Regina University	96%
3	40	University of Rhode Island	Northeastern University	79%
3	41	University of Vermont	Salve Regina University	96%
3	42	Connecticut College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	64%
3	43	Northeastern University	Salve Regina University	87%
3	44	Connecticut College	University of Rhode Island	59%
3	45	University of Vermont	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	52%
4	46	Connecticut College	Salve Regina University	99%
4	47	University of Vermont	Northeastern University	72%
4	48	University of Rhode Island	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	57%
4	49	Connecticut College	University of Vermont	82%
4	50	University of Rhode Island	Salve Regina University	97%
4	51	Northeastern University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	25%	upset
4	52	University of Rhode Island	University of Vermont	62%
4	53	Connecticut College	Northeastern University	92%
4	54	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Salve Regina University	96%
4	55	University of Rhode Island	Northeastern University	78%
4	56	Salve Regina University	University of Vermont	4%	upset
4	57	Connecticut College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	65%
4	58	Northeastern University	Salve Regina University	87%
4	59	University of Rhode Island	Connecticut College	41%	upset
4	60	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	49%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Camels	Rams	Bears	Catamounts	Huskies	Seahawks
Connecticut College Camels	3–2	✕	L	W	L	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	4–1	W	✕	L	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–2	L	W	✕	W	L	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	2–3	W	L	L	✕	L	W
Northeastern University Huskies	3–2	L	L	W	W	✕	W
Salve Regina University Seahawks	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Camels	Rams	Bears	Catamounts	Huskies	Seahawks
Connecticut College Camels	3–2	✕	W	W	L	L	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–3	L	✕	L	W	L	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	3–2	W	L	L	✕	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	3–2	W	W	L	L	✕	W
Salve Regina University Seahawks	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Camels	Rams	Bears	Catamounts	Huskies	Seahawks
Connecticut College Camels	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	3–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	2–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	4–1	L	W	W	✕	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Salve Regina University Seahawks	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Camels	Rams	Bears	Catamounts	Huskies	Seahawks
Connecticut College Camels	4–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	5–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	2–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	1–4	L	L	L	✕	W	L
Northeastern University Huskies	2–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Salve Regina University Seahawks	1–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
2	Huskies	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
3	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
4	Catamounts	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
5	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
6	Huskies	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
7	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
8	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
9	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
10	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
11	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
12	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
13	Huskies	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
14	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Camels	2-5-6
15	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
16	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
17	Catamounts	1-4-5	def.	Huskies	2-3-6
18	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
19	Catamounts	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
20	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
21	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
22	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Catamounts	2-3-6
23	Huskies	1-3-5	def.	Camels	2-4-6
24	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
25	Huskies	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
26	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
27	Camels	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
28	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
29	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
30	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
31	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
32	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
33	Rams	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
34	Camels	2-3-5	def.	Catamounts	1-4-6
35	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
36	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
37	Catamounts	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
38	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Huskies	1-5-6
39	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
40	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Huskies	1-5-6
41	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
42	Camels	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
43	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
44	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
45	Catamounts	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
46	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
47	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
48	Rams	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
49	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
50	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
51	Huskies	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
52	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Catamounts	2-5-6
53	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
54	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
55	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Huskies	2-5-6
56	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Catamounts	2-5-6
57	Camels	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
58	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
59	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Camels	2-5-6
60	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Catamounts	2-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Connecticut College	Camels	Carter Pemberton '20 Cj Mckenna '23 Gordon Gurnell '22 Thomas Whittemore '23	Cecilia Moreira '20 Katherine (Katie) Rodger '20 Paige Dunlevy '20 Walter Henry '23
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Brendan Read '19 Dakota Northrup '19 Luke Ingalls '21	Lauren Richards '19 Ryan Geib '19 Ian Nannig '19
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Caelan Juckniess '20 Gage Schoenherr '21 Mack Fox '20	Brian Nelson '21 Christina Nothacker '21 Walter Gnann '21 Anna Morin '19
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Cameron Nash '21 Colin Richards '20 Jan Kite-Powell '19 Thomas Harden '20	Ryan Soucy '22 Gabrielle Myers '21 Amanda Engeman '20 Emma Janson '19
Northeastern University	Huskies	Jackson Hamilton '19 Santiago Hirschmann '23 Ted Bjerregaard '23	Jacqueline Berlin '19 Ellen Reagan '20 Jon Ewing '21 Anne Wieland '19 Alexandra Nygren '20
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	Grace Vincens '20 Jennifer Killian '19 Joey Lark '21	Jennifer Ryan '19 Allie Deluca '21 Peter Cronin '22

Conditions — 03/23/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 48% · Pressure 1006.9 hPa

Temperature

39°F

↑ 44°F ↓ 32°F

Feels like 28°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

13.9 kn

avg · max 14.8 kn

Gusts to 35.4 kn

From WNW (300°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover35% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1006.9 hPa Snow0.06 in

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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