Hap Moore Trophy

HostCoast Guard
Date02/29/2020
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	13–1
2	Brown University	Bears	10–4
3	Tufts University	Jumbos	8–6
4	Connecticut College	Camels	8–6
5	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	6–8
6	Harvard University	Crimson	5–9
7	University of Rhode Island	Rams	3–11
8	University of Vermont	Catamounts	3–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 14,383 team race matches sailed before 2020-02-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 37 of 56 matches (66%) with a log-loss of 0.651 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.54 ± 0.26: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 9% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	2	9.90 school −0.19, home +0.36	Mack Fox / Christina Nothacker 3.62 Gage Schoenherr / Brian Nelson 3.39 Richie Gordon / Walter Gnann 2.65	74%	13–1 (93%)	+2.7
2	Brown University Bears	4	9.08 school +0.24	Jack Murphy / Sawyer Balint 3.15 John Mastrandrea / Mo Liu 3.02 Jed Bell / Nora Ong 2.61	56%	10–4 (71%)	+2.1
3	Tufts University Jumbos	5	8.62 school +0.13	Charlie Hibben / Emma Clutterbuck 3.04 Samuel Merson / Ann Sheridan 3.19 Connor Sheridan / Jacob Whitney 2.21	46%	8–6 (57%)	+1.6
4	Connecticut College Camels	3	9.52 school +0.29	Carter Pemberton / Cecilia Moreira 3.44 Cj Mckenna / Katherine (Katie) Rodger 3.10 Walter Henry / Paige Dunlevy 2.69 6–6 William Bedford / Paige Dunlevy 2.42 2–0	66%	8–6 (57%)	−1.3
5	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	1	10.20 school +0.23	Christian Filter / Emily Gonzalez 3.52 Matt Safford / Julia Adams 3.13 Alden Grimes / Marie Bergsund 3.37 4–6 Alden Grimes / Gigi Diserio 3.13 2–2	80%	6–8 (43%)	−5.2
6	Harvard University Crimson	8	7.23 school −0.06	Dylan Ascencios / Corinne Lee 4–8 Jonas Nelle / Christopher Wang 2.41 1–9 Sarah Burn / Jessica Williams 5–5 Francis Doyle / Carolyn Wang 2.40 5–5	18%	5–9 (36%)	+2.4
7	University of Rhode Island Rams	7	7.20 school −0.33	Parker Colantuono / Wyle Goddard 2.79 Christian Moffitt / Sadie Thomas 2.46 Ben Rosenberg / Jack Honan	19%	3–11 (21%)	+0.4
8	University of Vermont Catamounts	6	8.31	Cameron Nash / Gabrielle Myers 2.77 Thomas Harden / Isabella Arnaboldi 3.07 Connell Phillipps / Lucy Mulvihill	40%	3–11 (21%)	−2.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	9.90	11.61	13–1	10.3	+1.72	2.8	7%
6	Harvard University	7.23	8.32	5–9	2.6	+1.09	2.0	8%
2	Brown University	9.08	9.93	10–4	7.9	+0.84	1.3	16%
3	Tufts University	8.62	9.21	8–6	6.4	+0.59	0.7	25%
7	University of Rhode Island	7.20	7.40	3–11	2.6	+0.20	0.1	51%
4	Connecticut College	9.52	9.02	8–6	9.3	−0.50	0.5	87%
8	University of Vermont	8.31	7.15	3–11	5.6	−1.16	2.1	98%
5	Bowdoin College	10.20	8.21	6–8	11.2	−1.99	7.9	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Francis Doyle	Harvard University	2.40	4.14	5–5	2.0	+1.74	4.0	2%
Gage Schoenherr	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.39	5.11	13–1	10.3	+1.72	2.8	7%
Sarah Burn	Harvard University	2.21	3.83	5–5	2.1	+1.62	3.5	3%
Jed Bell	Brown University	2.61	3.45	10–4	7.9	+0.84	1.3	16%
Dylan Ascencios	Harvard University	2.20	2.97	4–8	2.5	+0.77	0.9	21%
Charlie Hibben	Tufts University	3.04	3.62	8–6	6.4	+0.59	0.7	25%
Ben Rosenberg	University of Rhode Island	1.90	2.10	3–11	2.6	+0.20	0.1	51%
Jonas Nelle	Harvard University	2.41	2.32	1–9	1.1	−0.09	0.0	69%
Walter Henry	Connecticut College	2.69	2.04	6–6	7.6	−0.65	0.7	91%
Thomas Harden	University of Vermont	3.07	1.90	3–11	5.6	−1.16	2.1	98%
Alden Grimes	Bowdoin College	3.37	1.38	6–8	11.2	−1.99	7.9	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Connecticut College	Harvard University	94%
1	2	University of Vermont	Bowdoin College	13%	upset
1	3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	95%
1	4	Tufts University	Brown University	39%	upset
1	5	Bowdoin College	University of Rhode Island	95%
1	6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	84%
1	7	Brown University	Connecticut College	38%	upset
1	8	Harvard University	University of Vermont	21%	upset
1	9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	78%
1	10	Connecticut College	Bowdoin College	33%	upset
1	11	Brown University	Harvard University	87%
1	12	University of Rhode Island	Tufts University	18%	upset
1	13	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	4%	upset
1	14	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Connecticut College	58%
1	15	University of Vermont	University of Rhode Island	76%
1	16	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bowdoin College	41%	upset
1	17	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	87%
1	18	Tufts University	University of Vermont	58%
1	19	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	70%
1	20	Connecticut College	University of Vermont	78%
1	21	Tufts University	Harvard University	81%
1	22	University of Vermont	Brown University	32%	upset
1	23	Bowdoin College	Tufts University	84%
1	24	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	50%	upset
1	25	Tufts University	Connecticut College	28%	upset
1	26	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Harvard University	93%
1	27	Brown University	Bowdoin College	23%	upset
1	28	Connecticut College	University of Rhode Island	88%
2	29	Connecticut College	Harvard University	91%
2	30	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	93%
2	31	Brown University	Tufts University	61%
2	32	Bowdoin College	University of Vermont	84%
2	33	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Connecticut College	59%
2	34	Brown University	Harvard University	85%
2	35	University of Rhode Island	University of Vermont	25%	upset
2	36	Bowdoin College	Tufts University	84%
2	37	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	31%	upset
2	38	Connecticut College	University of Vermont	77%
2	39	Tufts University	Harvard University	78%
2	40	University of Rhode Island	Bowdoin College	6%	upset
2	41	Brown University	University of Vermont	67%
2	42	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	78%
2	43	Connecticut College	University of Rhode Island	87%
2	44	Bowdoin College	Harvard University	95%
2	45	Tufts University	University of Vermont	56%
2	46	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	85%
2	47	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Harvard University	92%
2	48	Bowdoin College	Connecticut College	67%
2	49	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	78%
2	50	Harvard University	University of Vermont	26%	upset
2	51	Connecticut College	Brown University	61%
2	52	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bowdoin College	41%	upset
2	53	Harvard University	University of Rhode Island	51%
2	54	Tufts University	Connecticut College	28%	upset
2	55	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	82%
2	56	Brown University	Bowdoin College	24%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bears	Bears	Jumbos	Camels	Bears	Crimson	Rams	Catamounts
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	4–3	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	L
Tufts University Jumbos	4–3	L	W	✕	W	L	W	L	W
Connecticut College Camels	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2–5	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	L
Harvard University Crimson	3–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	1–6	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	L
University of Vermont Catamounts	3–4	L	W	L	L	W	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bears	Bears	Jumbos	Camels	Bears	Crimson	Rams	Catamounts
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	6–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	6–1	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	4–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	4–3	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4–3	L	L	W	W	✕	W	L	W
Harvard University Crimson	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
2	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
3	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
4	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
5	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
6	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Catamounts	1-4-6
7	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
8	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
9	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
10	Camels	2-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	1-4-6
11	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
12	Rams	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos	1-4-6
13	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-3-6
14	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
15	Catamounts	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
16	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
17	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
18	Jumbos	1-5-6	def.	Catamounts	2-3-4 RAF
19	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
20	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
21	Jumbos	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
22	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
23	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
24	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
25	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Camels	2-3-6
26	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
27	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
28	Camels	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
29	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
30	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
31	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
32	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
33	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
34	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
35	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
36	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
37	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
38	Camels	1-3-5	def.	Catamounts	2-4-6
39	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
40	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
41	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
42	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
43	Camels	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
44	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
45	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
46	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
47	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
48	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
49	Jumbos	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
50	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
51	Camels	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
52	Bears	1-5-6	def.	Polar Bears	2-3-4 DSQ
53	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
54	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
55	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
56	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Gage Schoenherr '21 Mack Fox '20 Richie Gordon '21	Brian Nelson '21 Christina Nothacker '21 Walter Gnann '21
Brown University	Bears	Jack Murphy '22 Jed Bell '23 John Mastrandrea '20	Sawyer Balint '20 Nora Ong '23 Mo Liu '22
Tufts University	Jumbos	Charlie Hibben '22 Connor Sheridan '22 Samuel Merson '22	Emma Clutterbuck '20 Jacob Whitney '21 Ann Sheridan '22
Connecticut College	Camels	Carter Pemberton '20 Cj Mckenna '23 Walter Henry '23 William Bedford '23	Cecilia Moreira '20 Katherine (Katie) Rodger '20 Paige Dunlevy '20
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Alden Grimes '21 Christian Filter '20 Matt Safford '20	Marie Bergsund '20 Gigi Diserio '22 Emily Gonzalez '20 Julia Adams '21
Harvard University	Crimson	Dylan Ascencios '24 Francis Doyle '22 Jonas Nelle '22 Sarah Burn '24	Corinne Lee '23 Carolyn Wang '23 Christopher Wang '23 Jessica Williams '20
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Ben Rosenberg '23 Christian Moffitt '21 Parker Colantuono '22	Jack Honan '23 Sadie Thomas '25 Wyle Goddard '21
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Cameron Nash '21 Connell Phillipps '23 Thomas Harden '20	Gabrielle Myers '21 Lucy Mulvihill '22 Isabella Arnaboldi '21

Conditions — 02/29/2020 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 42% · Pressure 1009.4 hPa

Temperature

32°F

↑ 35°F ↓ 26°F

Feels like 22°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.5 kn

avg · max 10.3 kn

Gusts to 25.1 kn

From W (275°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover62% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1009.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Coast Guard — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Coast Guard in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Coast Guard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (57 labelled fleet-race days at Coast Guard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu