Dartmouth College '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.83 (fleet 3.89) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 45–22 (67%) as crew 3–6 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 5 | 45–22 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | — | 3–6 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (76 matches) the record is 48–28 against 43.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.4). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-25 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.40 | 3.54 | 15–10 | 14.3 | +0.14 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 2019-04-06 | NEISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.30 | 3.92 | 12–5 | 9.8 | +0.61 | 0.9 | 20% |
| 2019-03-30 | 38th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 3.41 | 3.33 | 8–6 | 8.3 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2019-03-23 | Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.20 | 6.20 | 6–0 | 3.6 | ≥+3.00 | 4.9 | 2% |
| 2019-03-03 | Sharpe Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.99 | 4.39 | 4–1 | 2.8 | +1.40 | 1.1 | 25% |
| 2018-05-26 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | crew | 2.94 | 1.65 | 3–6 | 4.8 | −1.30 | 1.5 | 97% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
