University of South Florida '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.22 (fleet 3.07) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 9–26 (26%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 3 | 9–26 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (35 matches) the record is 9–26 against 8.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-06 | SAISA Team Race Conference Championships | skipper | 2.57 | 3.42 | 4–6 | 2.6 | +0.85 | 0.9 | 22% |
| 2019-03-02 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 2.44 | 3.11 | 5–14 | 3.1 | +0.67 | 1.0 | 18% |
| 2019-02-23 | Frank I Mendelblatt | skipper | 2.03 | -0.97 | 0–6 | 2.3 | ≤−3.00 | 3.9 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Team Race Conference Championships | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| SAISA Co-Ed Conference Championships | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.1 | 3.43 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.9 | 3.03 |
| Frank I Mendelblatt | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 26% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase | Skipper | A | 11 | 11.8 | 2.55 |
| SAISA Match Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 6 | 33% | — |
| SAISA Fall Co-ed Championships | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.9 | 3.25 |
| The Coed Showcase A Regatta | Skipper | A | 16 | 11.4 | 3.26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
