George Washington University '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.31 (fleet 3.19) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 12–3 (80%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 12–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 12–3 against 9.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-16 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.25 | 3.49 | 12–3 | 9.0 | +1.24 | 2.5 | 6% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Arrigan Memorial Regatta (Sun) | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.2 | 3.46 |
| Arrigan Memorial Regatta (Sat) | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.5 | 2.58 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Central Late Fall | Skipper | A | 9 | 1.4 | 4.94 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Robert Arrigan Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.8 | 2.09 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 11.9 | 2.62 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.6 | 2.78 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Arrigan Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.5 | 2.19 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Woollum Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.7 | 2.40 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Central Fall Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.7 | 2.49 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
