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Arrigan Memorial Regatta (Sun)

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 12 12
2 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 13 13
3 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 15 15
4 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 3 21 21
5 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 27 27
6 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 30 30
7 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 32 32
8 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 35 35
9 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 41 41
10 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 4 43 43
11 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 44 44
12 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 6 46 46
13 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 48 48
14 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 4 51 51
15 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 54 54
16 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4 54 54
17 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 5 57 57
18 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 61 61
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 2 1 3 6 12 Samuel Mandell '19
Jack Umina '22
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 3 4 5 1 13 Adam Didomizio '19
Cassondra Parker '21
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 1 10 1 3 15 Gray Benson '22
Madeline Pruzan '21
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 3 4 5 10 2 21 Andrew Bennett '19
Allison Forsyth '22
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 9 11 2 5 27 Colleen Baumann '21
Breanna Schultz '21
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 5 7 8 10 30 Tyler Fleig '19
Fiona Lobon '22
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 6 2 13 11 32 Louis Margay '22
Anna Cutler '20
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 13 12 6 4 35 Boyd Housey '22
Georgia Brainard '20
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 7 18 9 7 41 Jessica Bennett '20
Genna Viggiano '22
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 4 8 8 11 16 43 John Deruff '21
Keily Gleason '19
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 16 13 7 8 44 Taylor Walshe '22
Sarah Baker '20
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 6 11 9 17 9 46 Yusuf Mallick '19
Gabriel Perez-Alvarez '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 15 15 4 14 48 Christopher Booher '20
Erin Mcphillips '20
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 4 10 14 15 12 51 Jack Murray '22
Kathleen Neill '23
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 12 17 12 13 54 George White '20
Victoria Ewing '19
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4 17 6 16 15 54 Jack Carminati '22
Bartholomew Winn '21
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 5 18 3 18 18 57 Gretchen Mccarthy '20
Jack Powers '21
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 14 16 14 17 61 Nathaniel Winters '22
Henry Wu '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (20 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 11111
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 22222
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 33333
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 44444
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 15555
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 26666
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 37777
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 48888
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 59999
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 610101010
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 115151515
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 216161616
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 317171717
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 418181818
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs 111111111
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs 212121212
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 113131313
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 214141414

Conditions — 04/28/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1012.8 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.5 kn
avg  ·  max 13.1 kn
Gusts to 27.0 kn
From W (269°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover47% Sunshine9.5 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1012.8 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Georgetown: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.08 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.18 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →