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Woollum Regatta

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 42
2 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Snailers 70
3 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 83
4 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 99
5 Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 103
6 University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos 118
7 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 157
8 William and Mary William and Mary Tribe 160
9 Gannon University Gannon University Knights 194
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 B 3 2 2 3 5 1 16 Andrew Bennett '19
Kia Olsson '18
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Snailers A 4 4 8 1 2 2 21 Vidar Minkovsky '18
Micayla Beyer '19
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos A 1 5 1 7 8 3 25 Julia Gowell '18
Waverlee Harvey '18
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 A 2 1 9 2 6 6 26 Riley Engelberger '18
Sarah Alexander '19
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains B 9 3 6 5 3 7 33 Samara Leith '19 [1-6]
No Show [1-4]
Edward Lane '19 [5-6]
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks A 10 7 4 8 1 4 34 Julian Fraize '18
Mariana Bomfim '18
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 A 8 8 5 4 7 5 37 Marie Line '19
Samuel Mandell '19
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 B 5 6 7 11 9 8 46 Taylor Brimberg '18
Benjaim Helfand '16
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Snailers B 6 13 3 14 4 9 49 Brendan Brown-Mccue '16
No Show
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves A 7 9 14 6 13 14 63 Andrew Lithen '18
Spencer Ochs '18
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains A 12 10 11 10 10 13 66 Benjamin Kempton '18
Laura Kilgore '17
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe B 11 11 12 9 14 12 69 Rachel Pinkham '16
Daniel Powers '18
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks B 13 12 10 12 12 10 69 Andrew O'Brien '19
Jesse Stevenson '19
Gannon University Gannon University Knights B 16 18 16 15 11 11 87 Michal Szelwach '19
Denys Fedorchenko '16
William and Mary William and Mary Tribe A 14 15 13 16 16 17 91 Chris Anderson '16
Anna Li '17
University of Virginia University of Virginia Wahoos B 15 16 17 13 17 15 93 Turner Labrie '18
Katherine Green '19
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves B 17 14 15 17 15 16 94 Peter Sander '17
Gaura Mudgal '18
Gannon University Gannon University Knights A 18 17 18 18 18 18 107 Evan Johnson '16 [1-4]
Katherine Hanna '17 [5-6]
Angela Mackay '20 [1-4]
Andrea Swagler '17 [5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (16 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains111122
Gannon UniversityGannon University Knights222211
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 1333344
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 2444433
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks777788
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves555566
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Snailers666655
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos888877
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe99991010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains1010101099
Gannon UniversityGannon University Knights111111111212
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 1121212121111
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 2131313131414
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks161616161515
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves141414141313
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Snailers151515151616
University of VirginiaUniversity of Virginia Wahoos171717171818
William and MaryWilliam and Mary Tribe181818181717

Conditions — 03/12/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 85%  ·  Pressure 1023.8 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.3 kn
avg  ·  max 5.5 kn
Gusts to 11.7 kn
From E (101°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine0.1 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1023.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 6 kn · S 7 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Christopher Newport: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.46 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christopher Newport by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (24 labelled days at Christopher Newport).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →