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Arrigan Memorial Regatta (Sat)

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 14 14
2 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 21 21
3 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 32 32
4 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 39 39
5 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 45 45
6 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 3 51 51
7 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 53 53
8 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 55 55
9 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 55 55
10 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 57 57
11 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 59 59
12 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 5 67 67
13 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 68 68
14 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 70 70
15 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 4 71 71
16 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 4 71 71
17 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4 90 90
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 3 1 4 2 3 1 14 Joshua Paper '20
Genna Viggiano '22
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 4 2 3 1 6 5 21 Thomas Mccann '22
Maya Rabinowitz '21
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 2 10 2 11 1 6 32 Adam Didomizio '19
Cassondra Parker '21
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 10 9 10 4 4 2 39 George White '20
Victoria Ewing '19
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 6 8 6 5 10 10 45 Tyler Fleig '19
Fiona Lobon '22
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 3 9 13 1 10 5 13 51 Andrew Bennett '19
Allison Forsyth '22
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 8 5 13 14 2 11 53 Samuel Mandell '19
Jack Umina '22
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 1 15 12 16 7 4 55 Louis Margay '22
Anna Cutler '20
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 7 3 14 3 12 16 55 Gray Benson '22
Madeline Pruzan '21
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 5 11 9 8 16 8 57 Colleen Baumann '21
Breanna Schultz '21
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 13 16 8 7 8 7 59 Nathaniel Winters '22
Henry Wu '21
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 5 17 6 15 6 14 9 67 Alexander Mazzeo '22
William Wu '20
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 15 4 7 13 17 12 68 Hunter Cutting '21
Sam Muir '22
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 11 7 11 9 15 17 70 Taylor Walshe '22
Eugénie Le Picart '22
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 4 12 12 16 17 11 3 71 John Patrick Panarella '22
Victoria Blundin '22
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 4 14 14 5 15 9 14 71 John Deruff '21
Keily Gleason '19
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4 16 17 17 12 13 15 90 Jack Carminati '22
Bartholomew Winn '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (19 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 1111111
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 2222222
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 3333333
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 4444444
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 1555555
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 2666666
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 3777777
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 4888888
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 5999999
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1141414141414
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2151515151515
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3161616161616
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4171717171717
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs 1101010101010
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs 2111111111111
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1121212121212
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2131313131313

Conditions — 04/27/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 34%  ·  Pressure 1008.0 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
13.0 kn
avg  ·  max 16.7 kn
Gusts to 34.6 kn
From W (278°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover2% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity34% Pressure1008.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 28 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Georgetown: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.15)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.09 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.24
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.24 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →