Arrigan Memorial Regatta

HostGeorgetown
Date04/22/2017
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringCombined

#	School	Team	TOT
1	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	122
2	George Washington University	Colonials	133
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	203
4	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	222
5	Georgetown University	Hoyas	277
6	William and Mary	Tribe	381
7	Loyola University Maryland	Loyola University MD	408
8	Virginia Tech	Hokies	435
9	Eagles	Eagles	556

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	TOT	Sailors
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen B	1	1	2	2	1	1	2	11	4	2	1	5	2	3	4	3	45	Jimmy Madigan '18 Karma Richards '20
George Washington University	Colonials B	5	6	4	3	3	6	3	2	1	4	6	4	5	2	3	4	61	John Mastrandrea '20 [1-12] Andrew Bennett '19 [13-16] Madison Oleson '17 [1-12] Zachary Lehan '20 [13-16]
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks B	6	5	3	4	6	5	4	1	12	3	3	2	3	1	2	7	67	Joshua Paper '20 Ashley Wagner '20
George Washington University	Colonials A	2	13	1	1	2	2	1	3	2	10	2	6	4	4	11	8	72	Adam Didomizio '19 Gabriella Marki '17
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen A	4	4	6	12	4	3	7	7	3	1	14	3	1	5	1	2	77	Nicholas Gartner '20 Emma Remis '20
Old Dominion University	Monarchs B	3	3	8	5	7	7	11	8	5	5	5	8	10	7	5	5	102	Brendon Wilkins '18 Dane Pedersen '19
Old Dominion University	Monarchs A	8	7	5	9	8	4	5	9	9	8	8	7	8	6	10	9	120	George White '20 Gavin Burkhart '20
Georgetown University	Hoyas A	9	9	15	6	10	8	10	6	8	6	7	10	7	13	7	1	132	Tuckerman Jones '17 Grace Hanrahan '18
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks A	11	2	9	14	5	9	6	OCS	6	7	10	1	12	11	8	6	136	Ellie Ungar '19 Kira Allen '18
Georgetown University	Hoyas B	10	11	7	8	9	10	9	4	10	9	4	12	6	12	12	12	145	Curtis Crooke '17 [1-6, 13-16] Brian Poirier '17 [7-12] Celine Bennett '20 [1-10, 13-16] Isabelle Trimble '19 [11-12]
William and Mary	Tribe B	12	10	12	7	13	15	8	10	7	13	9	14	9	8	6	13	166	Patrick Mazzeo '18 Gabriel Freeland '20
Loyola University Maryland	Loyola University MD A	13	8	10	13	11	11	12	5	13	12	11	9	11	9	14	10	172	Theodore Fortier '17 Ann Bell '20
Virginia Tech	Hokies A	7	12	11	11	12	13	14	12	15	11	12	13	13	10	9	15	190	Nathan Gibson '19 Michael Van Meter '20
William and Mary	Tribe A	14	14	13	15	14	12	13	13	11	14	13	11	14	15	13	16	215	Daniel Powers '18 Connor Knutsen '18
Loyola University Maryland	Loyola University MD B	16	15	14	10	15	14	16	15	16	16	16	16	15	16	15	11	236	Charles Debski '19 Genevieve Lee '20
Virginia Tech	Hokies B	15	16	16	16	16	16	17	14	14	15	15	15	16	14	16	14	245	Natalie Lovelace '20 Erica Vandeveer '17
Eagles	Eagles A	17	17	17	17	17	17	15	16	17	17	17	18	17	17	17	17	270
Eagles	Eagles B	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	17	18	18	18	17	18	18	18	18	286

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (20 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A	14A	15A	16A
Eagles Eagles	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
George Washington University Colonials	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Georgetown University Hoyas	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Loyola University Maryland Loyola University MD	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Old Dominion University Monarchs	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Virginia Tech Hokies	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
William and Mary Tribe	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B	13B	14B	15B	16B
Eagles Eagles	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
George Washington University Colonials	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Georgetown University Hoyas	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Loyola University Maryland Loyola University MD	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Old Dominion University Monarchs	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Virginia Tech Hokies	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
William and Mary Tribe	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
George Washington University	Adam Didomizio '19	Gabriella Marki '17
Colonials	John Mastrandrea '20 [1-12] Andrew Bennett '19 [13-16]	Madison Oleson '17 [1-12] Zachary Lehan '20 [13-16]
Georgetown University	Tuckerman Jones '17	Grace Hanrahan '18
Hoyas	Curtis Crooke '17 [1-6, 13-16] Brian Poirier '17 [7-12]	Celine Bennett '20 [1-10, 13-16] Isabelle Trimble '19 [11-12]
Loyola University Maryland	Theodore Fortier '17	Ann Bell '20
Loyola University MD	Charles Debski '19	Genevieve Lee '20
Old Dominion University	George White '20	Gavin Burkhart '20
Monarchs	Brendon Wilkins '18	Dane Pedersen '19
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Ellie Ungar '19	Kira Allen '18
Seahawks	Joshua Paper '20	Ashley Wagner '20
U. S. Naval Academy	Nicholas Gartner '20	Emma Remis '20
Midshipmen	Jimmy Madigan '18	Karma Richards '20
Virginia Tech	Nathan Gibson '19	Michael Van Meter '20
Hokies	Natalie Lovelace '20	Erica Vandeveer '17
William and Mary	Daniel Powers '18	Connor Knutsen '18
Tribe	Patrick Mazzeo '18	Gabriel Freeland '20

Conditions — 04/22/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Moderate drizzle

Humidity 87% · Pressure 1014.0 hPa

Temperature

56°F

↑ 58°F ↓ 52°F

Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.3 kn

avg · max 8.4 kn

Gusts to 16.9 kn

From N (354°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity87% Pressure1014.0 hPa Rain0.22 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 9 kn · NE 6 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Georgetown: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.02

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.12 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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