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John Jackson Memorial Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 11–1
2 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 8–4
3 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 7–5
4 Boston College Boston College Eagles 7–5
5 Boston University Boston University Terriers 5–7
6 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 4–8
7 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 1–6
8 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 0–7

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 12,301 team race matches sailed before 2019-03-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 22 of 30 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.478 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.11 ± 0.34: a typical event, more orderly than 31% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Georgetown University
Hoyas		112.02
school +0.15, home +0.39		Sean Segerblom / Rebecca Fung 4.03
William Logue / Caroline Teare 3.67
Andy Reiter / Haley Shea 3.82 4–1
Andy Reiter / Claire Mohun 3.71 4–0		90%8–1 (89%)−0.1
2U. S. Naval Academy
Midshipmen		310.43
school +0.31		Parker Loftus / Sally Johnson 3.41
Maxwell Brill / Emma Remis 3.23 4–3
Connor Bayless / Ana Mier 3.48 3–2
Jc Hermus / Ana Mier 3.36 2–2
Connor Bayless / Emma Remis 3.42 1–1		61%5–4 (56%)−0.5
3Old Dominion University
Monarchs		59.07Jack Elkin / Abigail Tutt 3.42
Dreugh Phillips / Makalynne Dyer 3.09
Bridget Groble / Gavin Burkhart 2.56		33%6–5 (55%)+2.3
4Boston College
Eagles		410.44
school +0.19		Isabella Loosbrock / Emma Perry 2.98
Sophia Reineke / Tara Ferraris 3.40
Wade Waddell / Katharine Bowman 3.84		61%5–4 (56%)−0.5
5Boston University
Terriers		29.57
school −0.14		Robby Gearon / Erica Brown 3.23
Javier De Urdanibia Panos / Maia Agerup 3.10
Sam Morrell / Katherine Bertolini 3.36		70%3–2 (60%)−0.5
6University of Pennsylvania
Quakers		68.96Joseph Laforgia / Emelia Bartusiak 2.89
Nicholas Floyd / Dana Hackett 3.19
Porter Killian / Kristen Tilley 2.86		31%3–8 (27%)−0.4
7Christopher Newport University
Captains		76.72
school +0.10		Javier Gonzalez Rotge / Ian O'Connell 2.51
Vir Menon / Ethan Caldwell 2.32 0–4
Anna Patterson / Alexandria Brooks 0–3
Daniel Hodges / Anna Patterson 0–3
Daniel Hodges / Ethan Caldwell 0–2		5%0–6 (0%)−0.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
3Old Dominion University9.0710.246–53.7+1.162.09%
1Georgetown University12.0211.858–18.1−0.170.079%
6University of Pennsylvania8.968.713–83.4−0.250.175%
4Boston College10.4410.105–45.5−0.340.180%
2U. S. Naval Academy10.4310.085–45.5−0.360.181%
5Boston University9.579.113–23.5−0.460.284%
7Christopher Newport University6.723.720–60.3≤−3.000.4>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Andy ReiterGeorgetown University3.823.658–18.1−0.170.079%
William LogueGeorgetown University3.673.508–18.1−0.170.079%
Joseph LaforgiaUniversity of Pennsylvania2.892.643–83.4−0.250.175%
Isabella LoosbrockBoston College2.982.655–45.5−0.340.180%
Wade WaddellBoston College3.843.505–45.5−0.340.180%
Javier De Urdanibia PanosBoston University3.102.633–23.5−0.460.284%
Maxwell BrillU. S. Naval Academy3.232.744–34.5−0.490.285%
Jc HermusU. S. Naval Academy3.362.692–22.6−0.670.388%
Anna PattersonChristopher Newport University1.94-1.060–30.1≤−3.000.2>99%
Javier Gonzalez RotgeChristopher Newport University2.51-0.490–60.3≤−3.000.4>99%
Vir MenonChristopher Newport University2.32-0.680–40.2≤−3.000.3>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
12U. S. Naval AcademyChristopher Newport University97%
13Boston UniversityOld Dominion University62%
14Boston CollegeUniversity of Pennsylvania82%
15Georgetown UniversityChristopher Newport University99%
17U. S. Naval AcademyUniversity of Pennsylvania82%
18Old Dominion UniversityBoston College20%upset
19Boston UniversityChristopher Newport University94%
110Georgetown UniversityUniversity of Pennsylvania95%
112U. S. Naval AcademyBoston College52%
113University of PennsylvaniaBoston University35%upset
114Old Dominion UniversityChristopher Newport University90%
115Georgetown UniversityU. S. Naval Academy84%
117Old Dominion UniversityUniversity of Pennsylvania53%
120Georgetown UniversityBoston College84%
121U. S. Naval AcademyOld Dominion University78%
124Boston CollegeChristopher Newport University98%
126Georgetown UniversityOld Dominion University95%
127University of PennsylvaniaChristopher Newport University93%
629U. S. Naval AcademyUniversity of Pennsylvania81%
630Old Dominion UniversityBoston College20%upset
632Old Dominion UniversityU. S. Naval Academy22%upset
633Boston UniversityUniversity of Pennsylvania65%
634Boston CollegeGeorgetown University16%upset
635Old Dominion UniversityBoston University38%upset
636Boston CollegeU. S. Naval Academy48%upset
637Georgetown UniversityUniversity of Pennsylvania95%
639University of PennsylvaniaOld Dominion University48%upset
640Georgetown UniversityU. S. Naval Academy84%
641Boston CollegeUniversity of Pennsylvania81%
643Georgetown UniversityOld Dominion University95%

Round 1

TeamRec.HoyasMidshipmenMonarchsEaglesTerriersQuakersCaptainsMariners
Georgetown University Hoyas7–0✕WWWWWWW
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen6–1L✕WWWWWW
Old Dominion University Monarchs4–3LL✕WLWWW
Boston College Eagles3–4LLL✕LWWW
Boston University Terriers4–3LLWW✕LWW
University of Pennsylvania Quakers3–4LLLLW✕WW
Christopher Newport University Captains1–6LLLLLL✕W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners0–7LLLLLLL✕

Round 6

TeamRec.HoyasMidshipmenMonarchsEaglesTerriersQuakers
Georgetown University Hoyas4–1✕WWLWW
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen2–3L✕LLWW
Old Dominion University Monarchs3–2LW✕WWL
Boston College Eagles4–1WWL✕WW
Boston University Terriers1–4LLLL✕W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers1–4LLWLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
2 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. Christopher Newport University Captains 4-5-6
3 Boston University Terriers 1-2-3 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 4-5-6
4 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 4-5-6
5 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-3 def. Christopher Newport University Captains 4-5-6
6 Boston University Terriers 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
7 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 4-5-6
8 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-6 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-5
9 Boston University Terriers 1-3-4 def. Christopher Newport University Captains 2-5-6
10 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-3 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 4-5-6
11 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-4 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3-5-6
12 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-3-6 def. Boston College Eagles 2-4-5
13 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-4 def. Boston University Terriers 3-5-6
14 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-3 def. Christopher Newport University Captains 4-5-6
15 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-3 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4-5-6
16 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
17 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-6 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3-4-5
18 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
19 Christopher Newport University Captains 1-3-5 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2-4-6
20 Georgetown University Hoyas 2-3-4 def. Boston College Eagles 1-5-6
21 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2-3-4 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-5-6
22 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
23 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
24 Boston College Eagles 1-2-5 def. Christopher Newport University Captains 3-4-6
25 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-3 def. U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4-5-6
26 Georgetown University Hoyas 2-3-4 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-5-6
27 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-2-3 def. Christopher Newport University Captains 4-5-6
28 Boston University Terriers 1-4-5 def. Boston College Eagles 2-3-6
29 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3-5-6
30 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-5 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-6
31 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-3 def. Boston University Terriers 4-5-6
32 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-4 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3-5-6
33 Boston University Terriers 1-2-5 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3-4-6
34 Boston College Eagles 1-2-4 def. Georgetown University Hoyas 3-5-6
35 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-6 def. Boston University Terriers 3-4-5
36 Boston College Eagles 1-3-5 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2-4-6
37 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-3 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 4-5-6
38 Boston College Eagles 1-3-4 def. Boston University Terriers 2-5-6
39 University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1-3-6 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-4-5
40 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-3-4 def. U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2-5-6
41 Boston College Eagles 1-2-4 def. University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3-5-6
42 U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1-2-4 def. Boston University Terriers 3-5-6
43 Georgetown University Hoyas 1-2-3 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 4-5-6

Conditions — 03/09/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 78%  ·  Pressure 1026.4 hPa

Temperature

40°F
↑ 44°F   ↓ 33°F
Feels like 34°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.5 kn
avg  ·  max 5.1 kn
Gusts to 11.1 kn
From E (95°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine1.7 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1026.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Georgetown — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Georgetown in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled fleet-race days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →