August Sturm

Rating History

Team Race Rating

Rating	Rank	vs fleet rating	Record
2.30 (fleet 3.17)	unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active)	+0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts	as skipper 51–72 (41%) as crew 7–8 (47%)

Season	Regattas	Skipper W–L	Crew W–L
Spring 2018	6	30–52	—
Spring 2017	3	6–4	7–8
Spring 2016	1	8–13	—
Fall 2015	1	7–3	—

Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.

Team race surprisal: regatta by regatta

Over 11 graded regattas (138 matches) the record is 58–80 against 52.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+6.0). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.

Date	Regatta	Role	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2018-05-26	LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship	skipper	2.78	2.07	2–13	2.9	−0.71	0.4	89%
2018-04-21	MCSA Team Race Championship	skipper	2.64	3.86	7–1	5.6	+1.22	1.2	23%
2018-04-07	Big Ten Team Race	skipper	2.64	5.64	13–0	10.8	≥+3.00	3.6	7%
2018-03-24	Admiral Moore Team Race	skipper	2.68	2.74	4–10	3.9	+0.06	0.0	59%
2018-03-17	Southern New England Team Race	skipper	2.73	1.85	2–16	2.8	−0.88	0.5	93%
2018-02-24	Mendelblatt Team Race	skipper	2.87	2.18	2–12	2.7	−0.68	0.3	89%
2017-04-08	New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy	crew	4.08	4.02	3–6	3.1	−0.06	0.0	67%
2017-03-26	BU Team Race	skipper	3.09	3.75	6–4	4.7	+0.66	0.6	28%
2017-03-11	John Jackson Memorial Team Race	crew	3.07	4.64	4–2	2.4	+1.56	1.7	14%
2016-03-19	The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta	skipper	2.45	2.74	8–13	6.9	+0.29	0.2	37%
2015-11-07	Hap Moore Team Race	skipper	2.39	2.85	7–3	6.2	+0.47	0.3	42%

Regatta results

Regatta	Role	Div	Races	Avg	Rating
Fall 2019 Team page Season
Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase Qualifier A	Skipper	A	18	12.1	3.09
Kennedy Cup Keelboat	Crew	A	5	8.2	—
Coed Showcase Tournament	Skipper	A	14	9.4	3.22
Fall 2018 Team page Season
Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase	Skipper	A	14	13.1	2.36
Moody Trophy	Skipper	A	9	10.1	2.74
MCSA Match Race Championship	Skipper	TR	8	62%	—
Kennedy Cup Keelboat	Crew	A	4	6.5	—
Fall Fury	Skipper	A	10	3.9	2.42
Great Lakes Intercollegiate Offshore Regatta Keelboat	Crew	A	6	4.0	—
Spring 2018 Team page Season
Southern New England Team Race	Skipper	TR	18	11%	—
Mendelblatt Team Race	Skipper	TR	19	16%	—
MCSA Team Race Championship	Skipper	TR	8	88%	—
MCSA Coed Championship	Skipper	A	9	2.3	3.42
LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship	Skipper	TR	15	13%	—
Gill Coed Western Semifinal	Skipper	A	9	10.3	3.37
Charleston Spring	Skipper	B	10	4.8	3.15
Big Ten Team Race	Skipper	TR	13	100%	—
Admiral Moore Team Race	Skipper	TR	14	29%	—

Linked Profiles

League	Name	School	Year
ICSA	August Sturm	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	'19

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How do skipper ratings work?A log-strength fitted to every race at once, smoothed week to week.
What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
How does a crew rating work?A crew rating is small and uncertain; a worked example on one roster.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.

All notes →