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Fall Fury

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 17 13 30
2 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 39 18 57
3 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 41 43 84
4 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 25 68 93
5 Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 62 40 102
6 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers 53 51 104
7 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 57 88 145
8 Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 80 70 150
9 Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 83 81 164
10 University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 99 78 177
11 Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 124 MRP 140 MRP 264 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 5 17 Charlie Kutschenreuter '19 [1-10]
Olivia Staruck '20 [1-2, 9-10]
Peter Sauer '20 [3-8]
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1 3 4 4 1 2 4 2 3 1 25 Christian Cyrul '20
Chloe Frentzel '21
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 3 4 3 2 11 5 2 3 2 4 39 August Sturm '20 [1-10]
Anna Wisotzkey '20 [1-2, 5-10]
Benjamin Finkelstein '22 [3-4]
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 7 5 8 3 2 3 3 4 4 2 41 Carl Eaton '21 [1-10]
Bailey Adkins '19 [1-4]
Cassandra Trask '20 [5-10]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers 5 2 5 6 5 7 6 5 5 7 53 Erin Sullivan '21 [1-10]
Anna Thickens '21 [1-2, 9-10]
Larissa Carroll '20 [3-8]
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 6 7 6 7 7 4 5 6 6 3 57 Tom Rorrer '22
Alphia Korpela '22
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 4 6 2 5 4 6 10 7 9 9 62 Bobby Sessions '20
Anne Clark '19
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 9 8 7 10 6 9 8 8 7 8 80 Joseph Kurta '20
Jared Smith '20
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 8 9 9 8 8 10 7 10 8 6 83 Steven Golm '18
Kate Martin '19
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 10 10 11 9 9 8 11 11 10 10 99 Jacob Turenne '19
Erik Zettlemoyer '21
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 11 11 10 11 10 11 9 9 11 11 124 MRP Cortney Kingsley '18
Taylor Kunath '21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 13 Noah Janssen '19 [1-6]
Scott Sullivan '19 [7-10]
Maggie Houtz '19 [1-6]
Emma Zalog '20 [7-10]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 18 Connor Goulet '21
Sarah Silvestri '19
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 3 5 4 3 4 4 3 3 6 5 40 Solomon Dworsky '21 [1-10]
Makena Walsh '21 [1-4, 7-10]
Colin Higgins '21 [5-6]
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 6 2 3 5 3 5 4 4 5 6 43 Michael Stone '19
Kristin Berg '20
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers 5 4 6 4 7 3 7 5 3 7 51 Caroline Skotarzak '21 [1-10]
Collette Collins '20 [1-2, 7-10]
Alise Mintz '19 [3-6]
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 4 6 9 8 6 6 9 10 7 3 68 Christian Green '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
James Kennedy '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Anna Benedict '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 7 9 7 7 10 10 6 6 4 4 70 Nichole Kievit '19 [1-6]
Ryan Higgins '20 [7-10]
Antoinette Martin '20 [1-2, 7-10]
Connor Koryto '20 [3-6]
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 9 8 5 6 5 9 10 7 9 10 78 Ethan Mendez '21
Gabriel Aaron '21
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 8 7 8 10 9 7 5 8 10 9 81 Theo Wachowski '20
Nathan Miller '17
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 88 Susie Voltz '19
Lindsey Cavaiani '19
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 140 MRP No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (21 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers1133557799
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini557799121222
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles224466881010
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines668810101133
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One335577991212
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers779912122244
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats446688101011
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish881010113355
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers121222446688
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers991212224466
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Honey Badgers101011335577

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers224466881010
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini668810101133
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles335577991212
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines779912122244
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One446688101011
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers881010113355
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats557799121222
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish991212224466
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers1133557799
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers101011335577
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Honey Badgers121222446688
School / Team SkipperCrew
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Joseph Kurta '20 Jared Smith '20
Lakers Nichole Kievit '19 [1-6]
Ryan Higgins '20 [7-10]		 Antoinette Martin '20 [1-2, 7-10]
Connor Koryto '20 [3-6]
Marquette University Marquette University Bobby Sessions '20 Anne Clark '19
Golden Eagles Solomon Dworsky '21 [1-10] Makena Walsh '21 [1-4, 7-10]
Colin Higgins '21 [5-6]
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Steven Golm '18 Kate Martin '19
Husky One Theo Wachowski '20 Nathan Miller '17
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Cortney Kingsley '18 Taylor Kunath '21
Wildcats No Show No Show
University of Illinois University of Illinois Jacob Turenne '19 Erik Zettlemoyer '21
Illini Ethan Mendez '21 Gabriel Aaron '21
University of Michigan University of Michigan August Sturm '20 [1-10] Anna Wisotzkey '20 [1-2, 5-10]
Benjamin Finkelstein '22 [3-4]
Wolverines Connor Goulet '21 Sarah Silvestri '19
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Carl Eaton '21 [1-10] Bailey Adkins '19 [1-4]
Cassandra Trask '20 [5-10]
Gophers Michael Stone '19 Kristin Berg '20
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Christian Cyrul '20 Chloe Frentzel '21
Fighting Irish Christian Green '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
James Kennedy '20 [3-4, 7-8]		 Anna Benedict '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Charlie Kutschenreuter '19 [1-10] Olivia Staruck '20 [1-2, 9-10]
Peter Sauer '20 [3-8]
Badgers Noah Janssen '19 [1-6]
Scott Sullivan '19 [7-10]		 Maggie Houtz '19 [1-6]
Emma Zalog '20 [7-10]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Erin Sullivan '21 [1-10] Anna Thickens '21 [1-2, 9-10]
Larissa Carroll '20 [3-8]
Honey Badgers Caroline Skotarzak '21 [1-10] Collette Collins '20 [1-2, 7-10]
Alise Mintz '19 [3-6]
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Tom Rorrer '22 Alphia Korpela '22
Panthers Susie Voltz '19 Lindsey Cavaiani '19

Conditions — 09/08/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1022.5 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.9 kn
avg  ·  max 12.6 kn
Gusts to 25.9 kn
From ENE (62°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1022.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 13 kn* · NE 12 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Wisconsin: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.25)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.30
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.06 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.25 means a rating gap counts about 22% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Wisconsin by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (41 labelled days at Wisconsin).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →