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Sugar Bowl

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 21 32 53
2 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 41 42 83
3 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 54 41 95
4 Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets 55 51 106
5 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 64 44 108
6 Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 68 44 112
7 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 49 97 146
8 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 90 100 190
9 Oklahoma State University Oklahoma State University Cowboys 112 101 213
10 Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 106 108 214
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 1 3 1 1 2 4 2 1 2 1 1 2 21 Parker Trepton '18 [1-12]
Brett Hutchinson '19 [1-8]
Dylan Morris '20 [9-12]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 2 1 7 2 1 2 4 2 6 6 4 4 41 Andrea Sullivan '18 [1-12]
Korina Hendricks '17 [1-8]
Charlie Childs '19 [9-12]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 7 2 3 5 3 1 3 5 5 4 8 3 49 Julian Martin '20 [1-12]
Hunter Meis '17 [1-2]
Colton Hard '19 [3-12]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 4 6 4 6 4 6 5 7 3 5 3 1 54 Scott Sullivan '19
Alise Mintz '19
Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets 6 4 2 4 7 7 6 8 1 2 2 6 55 Conner Killham '18
Lauren Yapp '18
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 3 5 6 7 6 5 8 4 4 3 6 7 64 Nick Watts '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
David Graf '19 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Stephen Hahn '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Katherine Robinson '19 [3-4]
William Hoover '20 [7-8, 11-12]
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 5 7 5 3 8 3 7 6 7 7 5 5 68 Ryan Clulo '18 [1-12]
Karaline Black '20 [1-4, 9-10]
Claire Bruns '20 [5-8, 11-12]
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 10 8 10 9 10 8 1 3 8 8 7 8 90 Anish Zute '18 [1-12]
Alejandro Paez Touche '18 [1-2, 5-8, 11-12]
Michael Hernandez '20 [3-4, 9-10]
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 8 9 9 10 5 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 106 Kevin Dirksmeyer '17
Oklahoma State University Oklahoma State University Cowboys 9 10 8 8 9 10 9 10 9 10 10 10 112 Sean Fischer '18 [1-8]
Mark Hudnall '17 [9-12]
Rachel Olsen '18 [1-4, 9-12]
Dakota Brewster '20 [5-6]
Chanley Jenkins '20 [7-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 1 1 3 3 3 2 4 2 4 3 5 1 32 Jack Behrend '20
Susie Voltz '19
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 4 6 4 5 4 5 6 1 1 1 1 3 41 Ari Tessitore '17 [1-12]
Jonathan Thickens '19 [1-2]
Susan Luo '17 [3-12]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 6 4 2 4 7 1 3 4 2 2 3 4 42 Katherine Zimmerman '18 [1-12]
Alice Gardner '19 [1-2]
Elizabeth Ciborowski '17 [3-12]
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 2 2 5 2 2 6 2 3 3 5 6 6 44 Mason Chrabaszcz '18 [1-12]
Grant Younger '18 [1-4]
Learon Mcginn '19 [5-12]
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 5 5 1 1 1 3 1 6 6 6 4 5 44 Miia Newman '17 [1-12]
Malcolm Kriegel '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Alexandra Betzios '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets 3 3 6 6 6 4 5 5 5 4 2 2 51 Darby Reddaway '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Leigh Collier '19 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
David Sutton '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Matthew Dalton '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 8 9 9 8 5 7 9 10 7 7 8 10 97 Morgan Frakes '17 [1-2, 11-12]
Catherine Bristow '17 [3-10]
Megan Carugati '19 [1-2, 11-12]
Connor Thomas '19 [3-4, 7-10]
Sevanna Stewart '19 [5-6]
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 9 7 7 9 8 8 7 9 8 10 9 9 100 Aaron Comen '18
Carter Young '20
Oklahoma State University Oklahoma State University Cowboys 7 8 8 7 10 9 8 8 10 9 10 7 101 Shayna Borgfeld '17 [1-12]
Mark Hudnall '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Micah Swedberg '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Chanley Jenkins '20 [9-10]
Dakota Brewster '20 [11-12]
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 7 9 8 7 8 108 Maddie Hightower '20 [1-12]
Rachel Pearson '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Gabrielle Mycio Spring '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2011 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Georgia Institute of TechnologyGeorgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets113355779911
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles22446688101022
Oklahoma State UniversityOklahoma State University Cowboys335577991133
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns779911335577
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies44668810102244
Texas A&M University at Corpus ChristiTexas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders557799113355
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave66881010224466
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers1010224466881010
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 188101022446688
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 2991133557799

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
Georgia Institute of TechnologyGeorgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets22446688101022
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles335577991133
Oklahoma State UniversityOklahoma State University Cowboys44668810102244
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns88101022446688
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies557799113355
Texas A&M University at Corpus ChristiTexas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders66881010224466
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave779911335577
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers113355779911
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 1991133557799
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 21010224466881010
School / Team SkipperCrew
Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Conner Killham '18 Lauren Yapp '18
Yellow Jackets Darby Reddaway '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Leigh Collier '19 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]		 David Sutton '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Matthew Dalton '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Marquette University Marquette University Ryan Clulo '18 [1-12] Karaline Black '20 [1-4, 9-10]
Claire Bruns '20 [5-8, 11-12]
Golden Eagles Mason Chrabaszcz '18 [1-12] Grant Younger '18 [1-4]
Learon Mcginn '19 [5-12]
Oklahoma State University Oklahoma State University Sean Fischer '18 [1-8]
Mark Hudnall '17 [9-12]		 Rachel Olsen '18 [1-4, 9-12]
Dakota Brewster '20 [5-6]
Chanley Jenkins '20 [7-8]
Cowboys Shayna Borgfeld '17 [1-12] Mark Hudnall '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Micah Swedberg '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Chanley Jenkins '20 [9-10]
Dakota Brewster '20 [11-12]
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Julian Martin '20 [1-12] Hunter Meis '17 [1-2]
Colton Hard '19 [3-12]
Aggies Morgan Frakes '17 [1-2, 11-12]
Catherine Bristow '17 [3-10]		 Megan Carugati '19 [1-2, 11-12]
Connor Thomas '19 [3-4, 7-10]
Sevanna Stewart '19 [5-6]
Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Kevin Dirksmeyer '17
Islanders Maddie Hightower '20 [1-12] Rachel Pearson '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Gabrielle Mycio Spring '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Tulane University Tulane University Nick Watts '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
David Graf '19 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]		 Stephen Hahn '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Katherine Robinson '19 [3-4]
William Hoover '20 [7-8, 11-12]
Green Wave Miia Newman '17 [1-12] Malcolm Kriegel '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Alexandra Betzios '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
University of Texas University of Texas Anish Zute '18 [1-12] Alejandro Paez Touche '18 [1-2, 5-8, 11-12]
Michael Hernandez '20 [3-4, 9-10]
Longhorns Aaron Comen '18 Carter Young '20
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Andrea Sullivan '18 [1-12] Korina Hendricks '17 [1-8]
Charlie Childs '19 [9-12]
Badgers 1 Katherine Zimmerman '18 [1-12] Alice Gardner '19 [1-2]
Elizabeth Ciborowski '17 [3-12]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Scott Sullivan '19 Alise Mintz '19
Badgers 2 Ari Tessitore '17 [1-12] Jonathan Thickens '19 [1-2]
Susan Luo '17 [3-12]
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Parker Trepton '18 [1-12] Brett Hutchinson '19 [1-8]
Dylan Morris '20 [9-12]
Panthers Jack Behrend '20 Susie Voltz '19

Conditions — 12/30/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 43%  ·  Pressure 1028.3 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.0 kn
avg  ·  max 8.7 kn
Gusts to 16.3 kn
From NE (54°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine8.7 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1028.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 9 kn · S 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tulane: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.10 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →