University of Wisconsin Milwaukee '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.03 (fleet 2.81) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–15 (42%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 4–4 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 7–11 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (26 matches) the record is 11–15 against 14.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-21 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.98 | 2.12 | 4–4 | 3.8 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2017-04-29 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.98 | 0.49 | 7–11 | 11.0 | −1.49 | 4.0 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Season | |||||
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| MCSA Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.1 | 1.92 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | B | 10 | 13.4 | 1.88 |
| Fall 2017 Season | |||||
| Pere Marquette | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.9 | 2.35 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | B | 12 | 1.5 | 3.91 |
| Spring 2017 Season | |||||
| Wisconsin Three Division Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.2 | 2.15 |
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 18 | 39% | — |
| MCSA Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.8 | 1.71 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | B | 8 | 16.0 | 0.94 |
| Fall 2016 Season | |||||
| Timme Angsten | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.9 | 2.23 |
| Sugar Bowl | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.7 | 2.20 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Jack Behrend |  University of Wisconsin |
'20 |
| ISSA | Jack Behrend |  Kettle Moraine High School |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
