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Fall Fury

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 36 18 54
2 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 37 47 84
3 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 38 47 85
4 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 58 67 125
5 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 87 46 133
6 Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 95 51 146
7 Illini Illini Illini 75 113 188
8 Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 90 113 203
9 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 81 126 207
10 Iowa State University Iowa State University Cyclones 128 90 218
11 Husky One Husky One Husky One 106 137 243
12 Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 131 154 285
13 Wildcats Wildcats Wildcats 159 138 297
14 University of Iowa University of Iowa Hawkeyes 1 170 129 299
15 University of Iowa University of Iowa Hawkeyes 2 160 165 325
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 1 1 1 13 4 1 1 5 4 2 2 1 36 Parker Trepton '18
Brett Hutchinson '19
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 2 3 3 1 1 2 11 1 2 5 4 2 37 Ryder Easterlin '20
Mariel Tang '20
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 6 4 2 4 2 4 2 2 1 4 3 4 38 Carolyn Keck '19
Emma Zalog '20
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 DNF 9 4 2 3 5 3 4 3 3 1 5 58 Charlie Kutschenreuter '19
Olivia Staruck '20
Illini Illini Illini 3 2 6 3 RAF 3 5 8 10 8 8 3 75
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 8 11 9 9 7 6 10 3 6 1 5 6 81 Katherine O'Donnell '19
Natalie Shilati '20
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 5 7 5 6 5 10 6 6 8 7 11 11 87 Michael Valverde '18 [1-8, 11-12]
Michael Stone '19 [9-10]
Cassandra Trask '20 [1-8, 11-12]
Danielle Green '18 [9-10]
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 4 10 10 7 6 8 9 7 7 9 6 7 90 Elliot Lee '18
Nicholas Smart '18
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 7 6 8 5 9 12 7 9 5 11 7 9 95 Ryan Clulo '18 [1-4, 7-8]
Bobby Sessions '20 [5-6, 9-12]
Karaline Black '20 [1-4, 7-8]
Husky One Husky One Husky One 9 5 7 8 10 11 4 10 9 10 9 14 106
Iowa State University Iowa State University Cyclones 12 12 12 11 13 9 8 11 12 6 14 8 128 Stefan Peterson '19 [1-12]
James Sincox '18 [1-4, 7-12]
Casey White '19 [5-6]
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 10 8 11 10 8 7 13 12 13 14 12 13 131 Caroline Ritter '18
Jacob Pledger '18
Wildcats Wildcats Wildcats 13 DNF DSQ 15 14 15 14 13 11 12 10 10 159
University of Iowa University of Iowa Hawkeyes 2 11 DNF 13 12 12 14 12 15 15 15 13 12 160 Caitlin Chenus '19
Kate Anderson '18
University of Iowa University of Iowa Hawkeyes 1 DNF 13 DSQ 14 11 13 DSQ 14 14 13 15 15 170 Geoffrey Montour '19
Daniel Ivankovic '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 2 1 1 18 Jack Behrend '20
Susie Voltz '19
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 4 5 4 5 3 2 5 2 1 3 5 7 46 Cailin Oakes '18
Bailey Adkins '19
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 3 3 7 7 6 3 4 3 4 1 4 2 47 Zachary Herron '18
Josh Kaplan '19
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 5 2 2 4 2 6 2 5 7 7 2 3 47 Erin Sullivan '21
Katharine Madigan '20
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 2 4 5 2 4 4 3 9 3 5 6 4 51 Mason Chrabaszcz '18 [1-12]
Sydney Eger '20 [1-4, 7-12]
Claire Bruns '20 [5-6]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 6 6 3 3 5 5 6 8 2 11 7 5 67 Noah Janssen '19
Brianna Probst '20
Iowa State University Iowa State University Cyclones 9 8 10 8 11 8 7 6 10 4 3 6 90 August Nagro '19 [1-12]
George Peterson '19 [1-4, 9-12]
Thomas Peterson '19 [5-8]
Illini Illini Illini 10 13 6 9 12 7 14 14 5 6 9 8 113
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers DSQ 10 13 6 8 10 8 7 8 10 8 9 113 Joseph Kurta '20 [1-12]
Antoinette Martin '20 [1-8]
Connor Koryto '20 [9-12]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 7 11 9 15 9 11 13 13 9 9 10 10 126 Emily Vogt '18 [1-12]
Helen Feeney '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Anne Boniface '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
University of Iowa University of Iowa Hawkeyes 1 14 7 11 11 10 12 10 10 11 8 13 12 129 Alex Hoffmann '20
Alexander Wemmie '21
Husky One Husky One Husky One 11 12 14 10 13 13 12 4 12 13 12 11 137
Wildcats Wildcats Wildcats 8 9 8 12 7 9 15 11 15 15 14 15 138
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 12 15 12 13 15 15 11 12 13 12 11 13 154 Dylan Sabo '19
David Inman '18
University of Iowa University of Iowa Hawkeyes 2 13 14 15 14 14 14 9 15 14 14 15 14 165 Haley Beube '20
Taylor Mccall '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (21 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers11335577991111
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen2244668810101212
IlliniIllini Illini991111131315152244
University of IowaUniversity of Iowa Hawkeyes 1101012121414113355
University of IowaUniversity of Iowa Hawkeyes 2111113131515224466
Iowa State UniversityIowa State University Cyclones3355779911111313
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles446688101012121414
Husky OneHusky One Husky One557799111113131515
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers1212141411335577
WildcatsWildcats Wildcats668810101212141411
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 1779911111313151522
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 2881010121214141133
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers1515224466881010
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 11313151522446688
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 214141133557799

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers2244668810101212
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen3355779911111313
IlliniIllini Illini101012121414113355
University of IowaUniversity of Iowa Hawkeyes 1111113131515224466
University of IowaUniversity of Iowa Hawkeyes 21212141411335577
Iowa State UniversityIowa State University Cyclones446688101012121414
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles557799111113131515
Husky OneHusky One Husky One668810101212141411
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers1313151522446688
WildcatsWildcats Wildcats779911111313151522
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 1881010121214141133
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 2991111131315152244
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers11335577991111
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 114141133557799
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 21515224466881010
School / Team SkipperCrew
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Elliot Lee '18 Nicholas Smart '18
Lakers Joseph Kurta '20 [1-12] Antoinette Martin '20 [1-8]
Connor Koryto '20 [9-12]
Hope College Hope College Caroline Ritter '18 Jacob Pledger '18
Flying Dutchmen Dylan Sabo '19 David Inman '18
Iowa State University Iowa State University Stefan Peterson '19 [1-12] James Sincox '18 [1-4, 7-12]
Casey White '19 [5-6]
Cyclones August Nagro '19 [1-12] George Peterson '19 [1-4, 9-12]
Thomas Peterson '19 [5-8]
Marquette University Marquette University Ryan Clulo '18 [1-4, 7-8]
Bobby Sessions '20 [5-6, 9-12]		 Karaline Black '20 [1-4, 7-8]
Golden Eagles Mason Chrabaszcz '18 [1-12] Sydney Eger '20 [1-4, 7-12]
Claire Bruns '20 [5-6]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Ryder Easterlin '20 Mariel Tang '20
Wildcats 1 Zachary Herron '18 Josh Kaplan '19
Northwestern University Northwestern University Katherine O'Donnell '19 Natalie Shilati '20
Wildcats 2 Emily Vogt '18 [1-12] Helen Feeney '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Anne Boniface '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
University of Iowa University of Iowa Geoffrey Montour '19 Daniel Ivankovic '20
Hawkeyes 1 Alex Hoffmann '20 Alexander Wemmie '21
University of Iowa University of Iowa Caitlin Chenus '19 Kate Anderson '18
Hawkeyes 2 Haley Beube '20 Taylor Mccall '19
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Michael Valverde '18 [1-8, 11-12]
Michael Stone '19 [9-10]		 Cassandra Trask '20 [1-8, 11-12]
Danielle Green '18 [9-10]
Gophers Cailin Oakes '18 Bailey Adkins '19
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Charlie Kutschenreuter '19 Olivia Staruck '20
Badgers 1 Noah Janssen '19 Brianna Probst '20
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Carolyn Keck '19 Emma Zalog '20
Badgers 2 Erin Sullivan '21 Katharine Madigan '20
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Parker Trepton '18 Brett Hutchinson '19
Panthers Jack Behrend '20 Susie Voltz '19

Conditions — 09/09/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1028.7 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.9 kn
avg  ·  max 7.7 kn
Gusts to 17.9 kn
From ESE (121°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover20% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1028.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 8 kn · SE 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Wisconsin: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.15)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.21
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.17 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Wisconsin by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (41 labelled days at Wisconsin).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →