Big Ten Team Race

HostMichigan
Date10/25/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
Boat420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	University of Wisconsin	Badgers	9–1
2	University of Michigan	Wolverines	9–1
3	Northwestern University	Wildcats	6–4
4	University of Michigan	Maize	6–4
5	University of Wisconsin	Honey Badgers	5–5
6	Marquette University	Golden Eagles	3–7
7	University of Notre Dame	Fighting Irish	1–9
7	Ohio State University	Buckeyes	1–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 4,023 team race matches sailed before 2014-10-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 35 of 41 matches (85%) with a log-loss of 0.300 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.01 ± 0.27: a typical event, more orderly than 43% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	University of Wisconsin Badgers	3	6.38 school −0.06	Soren Walljasper / Virginia Debbink 2.49 Leslie Poole / Elliot Busta Charles Bocklet / Caya Mcfalls 1.87	71%	10–1 (91%)	+2.2
2	University of Michigan Wolverines	1	7.92 school +0.13, home +0.34	Christopher Cyr / Kathryn Ried 2.39 Thomas Etheridge / Lane Tobin 1.77 Alex Ramos / Sidney Thompson 2.95	93%	9–2 (82%)	−1.2
3	Northwestern University Wildcats	4	4.91 school +0.29	Jacob Bruce / Michael Pauleen 1.57 3–0 Noah Rosenthal / Elizabeth Philip 1–2 Robert Johnston / Yi Zhang 1.29 3–0 Jacob Bruce / Elizabeth Philip 1.30 0–2 Travis Cottle / Yi Zhang 1.73 0–2 Robert Johnston / Michael Pauleen 1.28 0–2 Robert Johnston / Aislinn Mcmillan 1.28 2–0 Travis Cottle / Michael Pauleen 1.75 2–0 Jacob Bruce / Yi Zhang 1.57 0–2 Travis Cottle / Aislinn Mcmillan 1.75 0–2 Travis Cottle / Elizabeth Philip 1.60 2–0 Noah Rosenthal / Yi Zhang 1–0 Robert Johnston / Elizabeth Philip 1.08 1–0 Noah Rosenthal / Aislinn Mcmillan 1–0 Jacob Bruce / Aislinn Mcmillan 1.58 1–0 Noah Rosenthal / Michael Pauleen 1–0	53%	6–4 (60%)	+0.7
4	University of Michigan Maize	2	5.45 school +0.13, home +0.34	Mason Wolters / Michael Gapuz Dj Litts / Elizabeth Wallace Ryan Davidson / Kendall Witmer 0.92	76%	6–4 (60%)	−1.6
5	University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers	5	3.44 school −0.06	Joey Feichtmeier / Derek Ho Brian Tobelmann / Alexander Lulewicz 1.34 Ian Walter / Megan Mcmahon 1.12	47%	5–5 (50%)	+0.3
6	Marquette University Golden Eagles	6	2.93	Ryan Clulo / Robert Michielutti Mason Chrabaszcz / Owen Bradley No Show / Catherine Strietmann	26%	3–7 (30%)	+0.4
7	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	8	0.65	Rebecca Jegier / Grace Curtin 0–4 Bryan Enriquez / Shannon Faulkner 1–3 Mike Flanigan / Elisabeth O'Toole 0–3 Bryan Enriquez / Patricia Morrow 0–3 Mike Flanigan / Cecilia Costa 0–3 Rebecca Jegier / Julia Lee 0–3 Matthew Greene / Patrick Power 0–3 Mike Flanigan / Colleen King 0–2 Mike Flanigan / Grace Curtin 1–1 Rebecca Jegier / Colleen King 1–1 Rebecca Jegier / Lissa Stachnik 0–1	6%	1–9 (10%)	+0.4
7	Ohio State University Buckeyes	7	1.75 school −0.17	David Aspery / Hannah Brosky 0.62 William Lewis / Emily Robinson Brittany Mosgo / Patrick Burns	23%	1–9 (10%)	−1.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	University of Wisconsin Badgers	6.38	8.76	10–1	7.8	+2.38	3.7	4%
3	Northwestern University Wildcats	4.91	5.54	6–4	5.3	+0.63	0.3	42%
7	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.65	1.22	1–9	0.6	+0.58	0.2	50%
6	Marquette University Golden Eagles	2.93	3.38	3–7	2.6	+0.46	0.1	51%
5	University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers	3.44	3.76	5–5	4.7	+0.32	0.1	57%
2	University of Michigan Wolverines	7.92	6.65	9–2	10.2	−1.28	1.3	97%
4	University of Michigan Maize	5.45	3.95	6–4	7.6	−1.50	1.8	98%
7	Ohio State University Buckeyes	1.75	0.10	1–9	2.3	−1.64	1.4	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Soren Walljasper	University of Wisconsin	2.49	4.87	10–1	7.8	+2.38	3.7	4%
Leslie Poole	University of Wisconsin	1.88	4.26	10–1	7.8	+2.38	3.7	4%
Charles Bocklet	University of Wisconsin	1.87	4.25	10–1	7.8	+2.38	3.7	4%
Robert Johnston	Northwestern University	1.29	2.16	6–2	5.2	+0.87	0.5	37%
Bryan Enriquez	University of Notre Dame	-1.40	-0.75	1–6	0.6	+0.66	0.2	48%
Mike Flanigan	University of Notre Dame	1.86	2.44	1–9	0.6	+0.58	0.2	50%
Rebecca Jegier	University of Notre Dame	-0.49	0.09	1–9	0.6	+0.58	0.2	50%
Jacob Bruce	Northwestern University	1.57	2.07	4–4	3.5	+0.50	0.2	50%
No Show	Marquette University	0.50	0.96	3–7	2.6	+0.46	0.1	51%
Joey Feichtmeier	University of Wisconsin	0.50	0.83	5–5	4.7	+0.32	0.1	57%
Brian Tobelmann	University of Wisconsin	1.34	1.66	5–5	4.7	+0.32	0.1	57%
Ian Walter	University of Wisconsin	1.12	1.44	5–5	4.7	+0.32	0.1	57%
Travis Cottle	Northwestern University	1.73	1.83	4–4	3.9	+0.10	0.0	70%
Christopher Cyr	University of Michigan	2.39	1.12	9–2	10.2	−1.28	1.3	97%
Thomas Etheridge	University of Michigan	1.77	0.50	9–2	10.2	−1.28	1.3	97%
Alex Ramos	University of Michigan	2.95	1.67	9–2	10.2	−1.28	1.3	97%
Mason Wolters	University of Michigan	1.97	0.47	6–4	7.6	−1.50	1.8	98%
Ryan Davidson	University of Michigan	0.92	-0.58	6–4	7.6	−1.50	1.8	98%
David Aspery	Ohio State University	0.62	-1.02	1–9	2.3	−1.64	1.4	98%
William Lewis	Ohio State University	0.84	-0.80	1–9	2.3	−1.64	1.4	98%
Brittany Mosgo	Ohio State University	-0.11	-1.75	1–9	2.3	−1.64	1.4	98%
Matthew Greene	University of Notre Dame	-0.57	-3.57	0–3	0.0	≤−3.00	0.0	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	University of Michigan Wolverines	Marquette University Golden Eagles	100%
1	2	University of Michigan Maize	Ohio State University Buckeyes	98%
1	3	University of Wisconsin Badgers	Northwestern University Wildcats	83%
1	4	University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	95%
1	5	Marquette University Golden Eagles	Ohio State University Buckeyes	75%
1	6	University of Michigan Wolverines	University of Wisconsin Badgers	81%
1	7	Northwestern University Wildcats	University of Michigan Maize	39%	upset
1	8	Marquette University Golden Eagles	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	94%
1	9	University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers	Ohio State University Buckeyes	83%
1	10	University of Michigan Wolverines	University of Michigan Maize	92%
1	11	University of Wisconsin Badgers	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	100%
1	12	Northwestern University Wildcats	Ohio State University Buckeyes	96%
1	13	Marquette University Golden Eagles	University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers	40%	upset
1	14	University of Michigan Maize	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	99%
1	15	University of Michigan Wolverines	Northwestern University Wildcats	94%
1	16	University of Wisconsin Badgers	University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers	95%
1	17	Ohio State University Buckeyes	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	80%
1	18	Northwestern University Wildcats	Marquette University Golden Eagles	86%
1	19	University of Wisconsin Badgers	University of Michigan Maize	71%
1	20	University of Michigan Wolverines	University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers	99%
1	21	Northwestern University Wildcats	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	99%
1	22	University of Wisconsin Badgers	Ohio State University Buckeyes	99%
1	23	University of Michigan Maize	Marquette University Golden Eagles	92%
1	24	University of Michigan Wolverines	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	100%
1	25	Northwestern University Wildcats	University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers	81%
1	26	University of Wisconsin Badgers	Marquette University Golden Eagles	96%
1	27	University of Michigan Wolverines	Ohio State University Buckeyes	100%
1	28	University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers	University of Michigan Maize	12%	upset
2	29	University of Michigan Wolverines	Marquette University Golden Eagles	99%
2	30	University of Wisconsin Badgers	Northwestern University Wildcats	83%
2	31	Northwestern University Wildcats	Marquette University Golden Eagles	83%
2	32	University of Wisconsin Badgers	University of Michigan Wolverines	17%	upset
2	33	University of Michigan Wolverines	Northwestern University Wildcats	94%
2	34	University of Wisconsin Badgers	Marquette University Golden Eagles	96%
2	35	University of Wisconsin Badgers	University of Michigan Wolverines	17%	upset
2	36	University of Michigan Maize	University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers	88%
2	37	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	Ohio State University Buckeyes	22%	upset
2	38	University of Michigan Maize	Ohio State University Buckeyes	97%
2	39	University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	95%
2	40	University of Michigan Maize	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	99%
2	41	University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers	Ohio State University Buckeyes	84%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Badgers	Wolverines	Wildcats	Maize	Badgers	Eagles	Irish	Buckeyes
University of Wisconsin Badgers	9–5	✕	W	L	W	✕	W	W	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	10–4	L	✕	W	✕	L	W	W	W
Northwestern University Wildcats	5–2	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
University of Michigan Maize	10–4	L	✕	W	✕	L	W	W	W
University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers	9–5	✕	W	L	W	✕	W	W	W
Marquette University Golden Eagles	3–4	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L
Ohio State University Buckeyes	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Badgers	Wolverines	Wildcats	Maize	Badgers	Eagles	Irish	Buckeyes
University of Wisconsin Badgers	6–1	✕	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	5–2	W	✕	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Northwestern University Wildcats	1–2	L	L	✕	L	L	W	–	–
University of Michigan Maize	5–2	W	✕	W	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Wisconsin Honey Badgers	6–1	✕	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
Marquette University Golden Eagles	0–3	L	L	L	L	L	✕	–	–
University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	1–2	L	L	–	L	L	–	✕	W
Ohio State University Buckeyes	0–3	L	L	–	L	L	–	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Wolverines	1-2-3	def.	Golden Eagles	4-5-6
2	Maize	1-2-5	def.	Buckeyes	3-4-6
3	Badgers	2-3-4	def.	Wildcats	1-5-6
4	Honey Badgers	1-2-3	def.	Fighting Irish	4-5-6
5	Golden Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Buckeyes	3-4-5
6	Wolverines	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
7	Wildcats	1-3-5	def.	Maize	2-4-6
8	Golden Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Fighting Irish	1-5-6
9	Honey Badgers	1-3-4	def.	Buckeyes	2-5-6
10	Wolverines	1-2-5	def.	Maize	3-4-6
11	Badgers	1-2-3	def.	Fighting Irish	4-5-6
12	Wildcats	1-2-4	def.	Buckeyes	3-5-6
13	Golden Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Honey Badgers	3-4-5
14	Maize	1-2-4	def.	Fighting Irish	3-5-6
15	Wolverines	2-3-4	def.	Wildcats	1-5-6
16	Badgers	1-2-3	def.	Honey Badgers	4-5-6
17	Buckeyes	1-3-5	def.	Fighting Irish	2-4-6
18	Wildcats	1-3-4	def.	Golden Eagles	2-5-6
19	Badgers	1-2-6	def.	Maize	3-4-5
20	Wolverines	1-2-4	def.	Honey Badgers	3-5-6
21	Wildcats	1-2-4	def.	Fighting Irish	3-5-6
22	Badgers	1-2-3	def.	Buckeyes	4-5-6
23	Maize	1-3-6	def.	Golden Eagles	2-4-5
24	Wolverines	1-2-3	def.	Fighting Irish	4-5-6
25	Wildcats	1-2-6	def.	Honey Badgers	3-4-5
26	Badgers	1-2-3	def.	Golden Eagles	4-5-6
27	Wolverines	1-2-3	def.	Buckeyes	4-5-6
28	Honey Badgers	1-2-6	def.	Maize	3-4-5
29	Wolverines	1-2-4	def.	Golden Eagles	3-5-6
30	Badgers	2-3-4	def.	Wildcats	1-5-6
31	Wildcats	1-3-4	def.	Golden Eagles	2-5-6
32	Badgers	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
33	Wolverines	2-3-4	def.	Wildcats	1-5-6
34	Badgers	1-3-5	def.	Golden Eagles	2-4-6
35	Badgers	2-4-6	def.	Wolverines	1-3-5 DSQ
36	Maize	1-3-6	def.	Honey Badgers	2-4-5
37	Fighting Irish	1-2-6	def.	Buckeyes	3-4-5
38	Maize	2-3-4	def.	Buckeyes	1-5-6
39	Honey Badgers	1-2-3	def.	Fighting Irish	4-5-6
40	Maize	1-2-3	def.	Fighting Irish	4-5-6
41	Honey Badgers	1-2-4	def.	Buckeyes	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	Charles Bocklet '17 Leslie Poole '16 Soren Walljasper '17	Caya Mcfalls '16 Elliot Busta '15 Virginia Debbink '16
University of Michigan	Wolverines	Alex Ramos '15 Christopher Cyr '16 Thomas Etheridge '16	Sidney Thompson '18 Kathryn Ried '15 Lane Tobin '18
Northwestern University	Wildcats	Jacob Bruce '16 Noah Rosenthal '18 Robert Johnston '15 Travis Cottle '15	Michael Pauleen '18 Yi Zhang '17 Elizabeth Philip '18 Aislinn Mcmillan '17
University of Michigan	Maize	Dj Litts '18 Mason Wolters '18 Ryan Davidson '15	Elizabeth Wallace '15 Michael Gapuz '18 Kendall Witmer '15
University of Wisconsin	Honey Badgers	Brian Tobelmann '18 Ian Walter '16 Joey Feichtmeier '18	Alexander Lulewicz '19 Megan Mcmahon '17 Derek Ho '18
Marquette University	Golden Eagles	Mason Chrabaszcz '18 No Show Ryan Clulo '18	Owen Bradley '18 Catherine Strietmann '18 Robert Michielutti '18
University of Notre Dame	Fighting Irish	Bryan Enriquez '15 Matthew Greene '16 Mike Flanigan '15 Rebecca Jegier '15	Patricia Morrow '17 Shannon Faulkner '16 Patrick Power '15 Elisabeth O'Toole '15 Cecilia Costa '18 Grace Curtin '18 Colleen King '16 Lissa Stachnik '16 Julia Lee '15
Ohio State University	Buckeyes	Brittany Mosgo '17 David Aspery '16 William Lewis '17	Patrick Burns '16 Hannah Brosky '17 Emily Robinson '16

Conditions — 10/25/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 67% · Pressure 1009.0 hPa

Temperature

60°F

↑ 65°F ↓ 50°F

Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.4 kn

avg · max 14.1 kn

Gusts to 27.8 kn

From W (268°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover10% Sunshine9.5 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1009.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Michigan — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Michigan in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.09)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Michigan by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 12 labelled days at Michigan, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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