University of Notre Dame '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.20 (fleet -1.66) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–16 (6%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 0–10 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 1–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (17 matches) the record is 1–16 against 0.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-11 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | -1.10 | -4.10 | 0–10 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| 2014-10-25 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | -1.40 | -0.75 | 1–6 | 0.6 | +0.66 | 0.2 | 48% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Harris Kempner Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.8 | -1.51 |
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Northwestern's Spring | Skipper | A | 7 | 15.4 | -2.28 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Northwestern Invite | Crew | A | 2 | 11.5 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
