Marquette University
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–13 (28%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 2–6 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 3–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 5–13 against 6.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-10-17 | Streufert Team Race | skipper | 0.90 | -0.72 | 2–6 | 3.4 | −1.62 | 1.5 | 98% |
| 2014-10-25 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 0.50 | 0.96 | 3–7 | 2.6 | +0.46 | 0.1 | 51% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| University of Illinois Regatta | Crew | B | 4 | 2.2 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Freshman Icebreaker | Skipper | A | — | — | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Streufert Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Pere Marquette Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.0 | 0.63 |
| Davis Cup | Crew | A, B | 16 | 4.6 | — |
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Pere Marquette Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.7 | -0.82 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
