University of Notre Dame '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.22 (fleet 1.68) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–5 (38%) as crew 0–3 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 3–5 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | — | 0–3 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (11 matches) the record is 3–8 against 2.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-17 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.49 | 2.43 | 3–5 | 2.1 | +0.94 | 0.6 | 32% |
| 2014-10-25 | Big Ten Team Race | crew | -0.57 | -3.57 | 0–3 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Co-ed Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.2 | 1.79 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Pere Marquette | Skipper | A | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.1 | 2.11 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Northwestern Spring | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.2 | 1.91 |
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| MCSA Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.7 | 1.89 |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinals | Skipper | B | 6 | 15.5 | 0.85 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Big Ten Team Race | Crew | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Harris Kempner | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.6 | — |
| College Sailing Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 13 | 16.5 | 0.46 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Pere Marquette Cup | Crew | B | 6 | 2.3 | — |
| Boiler Cup | Skipper | A | 8 | 1.2 | 3.23 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Eckerd Intersectional | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.0 | -0.07 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Timme Tune-Up | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.9 | 1.90 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | B | 2 | 3.5 | 1.80 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
