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Big Ten Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 University of Michigan University of Michigan Maize 12–0
2 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 9–3
3 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 5–7
4 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2–10
4 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 1,739 team race matches sailed before 2013-11-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 27 of 30 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.192 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.09 ± 0.36: a typical event, more orderly than 53% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1University of Michigan
Maize		18.80
home +0.35		Ryan Seago / Emily Gazall 2.67
Will Cyr / Victoria Noble
Alex Ramos / Karinne Smolenyak		99%12–0 (100%)+0.2
2University of Wisconsin
Badgers 1		25.81
school −0.10		Laura Wefer / Katie Hall
Whitney Kent / Jennifer Burke
Soren Walljasper / Virginia Debbink		73%9–3 (75%)+0.3
3University of Wisconsin
Badgers 2		33.90
school −0.10		Charles Bocklet / Benjamin Reiland
Kate Hayes / Erik Elliott
Nathan Jamieson / Chloe Lake		45%5–7 (42%)−0.4
4University of Michigan
Wolverines		50.39
home +0.35		Ryan Davidson / Kathryn Ried
Alex Mayo / Kendall Witmer
Taylor Bradford / Mitchell Kimball		8%2–10 (17%)+1.1
4Northwestern University
Wildcats		42.31
school +0.17		Jacob Bruce / Charles Tokowitz 0.78 2–7
Robert Johnston / Allison Park 1–8
Simone Rivera / Madin Akpo-Esambe 1–5
Connor Schmitt / Lincoln Oliver-O'Neil 1–2
Connor Schmitt / Madin Akpo-Esambe 0–3
Jacob Bruce / Lincoln Oliver-O'Neil 0.85 0–3
Robert Johnston / Lincoln Oliver-O'Neil 1–2		26%2–10 (17%)−1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1University of Michigan Maize8.8011.8012–011.8≥+3.000.284%
4University of Michigan Wolverines0.391.592–100.9+1.201.022%
2University of Wisconsin Badgers 15.816.379–38.7+0.560.169%
3University of Wisconsin Badgers 23.903.545–75.4−0.360.182%
4Northwestern University Wildcats2.311.362–103.1−0.950.893%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Ryan SeagoUniversity of Michigan2.675.6712–011.8≥+3.000.284%
Alex RamosUniversity of Michigan3.056.0512–011.8≥+3.000.284%
Ryan DavidsonUniversity of Michigan0.481.682–100.9+1.201.022%
Alex MayoUniversity of Michigan-0.920.282–100.9+1.201.022%
Taylor BradfordUniversity of Michigan-0.141.062–100.9+1.201.022%
Laura WeferUniversity of Wisconsin2.312.879–38.7+0.560.169%
Soren WalljasperUniversity of Wisconsin1.482.049–38.7+0.560.169%
Simone RiveraNorthwestern University1.081.271–50.9+0.190.064%
Charles BockletUniversity of Wisconsin1.300.935–75.4−0.360.182%
Kate HayesUniversity of Wisconsin0.720.365–75.4−0.360.182%
Nathan JamiesonUniversity of Wisconsin1.401.035–75.4−0.360.182%
Jacob BruceNorthwestern University0.78-0.172–103.1−0.950.893%
Robert JohnstonNorthwestern University0.59-0.362–103.1−0.950.893%
Connor SchmittNorthwestern University-0.42-2.171–52.3−1.751.698%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Michigan Wolverines100%
12University of Michigan MaizeUniversity of Michigan Wolverines100%
13Northwestern University WildcatsUniversity of Michigan Wolverines72%
14University of Wisconsin Badgers 2University of Michigan Wolverines95%
15University of Michigan MaizeUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 196%
16University of Wisconsin Badgers 1Northwestern University Wildcats99%
17University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Wisconsin Badgers 290%
18University of Michigan MaizeNorthwestern University Wildcats100%
19University of Michigan MaizeUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 299%
110University of Wisconsin Badgers 2Northwestern University Wildcats71%
211University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Michigan Wolverines100%
212University of Michigan MaizeUniversity of Michigan Wolverines100%
213University of Michigan WolverinesNorthwestern University Wildcats25%upset
214University of Wisconsin Badgers 2University of Michigan Wolverines97%
215University of Michigan MaizeUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 195%
216University of Wisconsin Badgers 1Northwestern University Wildcats99%
217University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Wisconsin Badgers 288%
218University of Michigan MaizeNorthwestern University Wildcats100%
219University of Michigan MaizeUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 299%
220Northwestern University WildcatsUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 229%upset
321University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Michigan Wolverines100%
322University of Michigan MaizeUniversity of Michigan Wolverines100%
323University of Michigan WolverinesNorthwestern University Wildcats25%upset
324University of Wisconsin Badgers 2University of Michigan Wolverines97%
325University of Michigan MaizeUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 195%
326University of Wisconsin Badgers 1Northwestern University Wildcats99%
327University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Wisconsin Badgers 288%
328University of Michigan MaizeNorthwestern University Wildcats100%
329University of Michigan MaizeUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 299%
330University of Wisconsin Badgers 2Northwestern University Wildcats71%

Round 1

TeamRec.Maize12WolverinesWildcats
University of Michigan Maize4–4✕WW✕W
University of Wisconsin Badgers 15–3L✕✕LW
University of Wisconsin Badgers 25–3L✕✕LW
University of Michigan Wolverines4–4✕WW✕W
Northwestern University Wildcats1–3LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.Maize12WolverinesWildcats
University of Michigan Maize5–3✕WW✕W
University of Wisconsin Badgers 14–4L✕✕LL
University of Wisconsin Badgers 24–4L✕✕LL
University of Michigan Wolverines5–3✕WW✕W
Northwestern University Wildcats1–3LWWL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.Maize12WolverinesWildcats
University of Michigan Maize5–3✕WW✕W
University of Wisconsin Badgers 15–3L✕✕LW
University of Wisconsin Badgers 25–3L✕✕LW
University of Michigan Wolverines5–3✕WW✕W
Northwestern University Wildcats0–4LLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-4 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 3-5-6
2 University of Michigan Maize 1-2-4 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 3-5-6
3 Northwestern University Wildcats 2-3-4 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 1-5-6
4 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-2-3 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 4-5-6
5 University of Michigan Maize 1-2-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 3-5-6
6 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
7 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 4-5-6
8 University of Michigan Maize 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
9 University of Michigan Maize 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 4-5-6
10 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-2-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-5-6
11 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-5 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 3-4-6
12 University of Michigan Maize 2-3-4 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 1-5-6
13 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-6
14 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-2-5 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 3-4-6
15 University of Michigan Maize 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 4-5-6
16 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-6
17 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-4-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 2-3-6
18 University of Michigan Maize 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
19 University of Michigan Maize 1-3-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 2-5-6
20 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-3-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 2-5-6
21 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-5 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 3-4-6
22 University of Michigan Maize 1-2-3 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 4-5-6
23 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-4-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 2-3-6
24 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-2-5 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 3-4-6
25 University of Michigan Maize 2-3-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-5-6
26 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
27 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 2-3-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-4-6
28 University of Michigan Maize 1-2-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-5-6
29 University of Michigan Maize 1-2-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 3-4-6
30 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-2-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-5-6

Conditions — 11/02/2013 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1010.1 hPa

Temperature

45°F
↑ 47°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.0 kn
avg  ·  max 9.7 kn
Gusts to 19.8 kn
From NNW (336°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover88% Sunshine3.0 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1010.1 hPa Rain0.07 in

What this breeze does at Michigan — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Michigan in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Michigan by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 12 labelled days at Michigan, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →