University of Wisconsin '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.59 (fleet 0.82) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–19 (30%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 3–12 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 5–7 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (27 matches) the record is 8–19 against 11.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-09-20 | Streufert Team Race | skipper | 0.83 | -0.75 | 3–12 | 6.1 | −1.58 | 3.3 | 99% |
| 2013-11-02 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 0.72 | 0.36 | 5–7 | 5.4 | −0.36 | 0.1 | 82% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Wisco Women's Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 3.0 | — |
| Streufert Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Wisco Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.0 | 0.94 |
| Streufert Cup | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.9 | 0.59 |
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 42% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
