Massachusetts Institute of Technology '16
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 1.50 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 28 | Fall 2015 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.63 (fleet 3.63) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 53–32 (62%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 4 | 30–26 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 23–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (85 matches) the record is 53–32 against 54.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.4). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-11 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.64 | 2.93 | 2–8 | 3.2 | −0.71 | 0.6 | 90% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.67 | 2.63 | 5–10 | 8.1 | −1.04 | 2.3 | 98% |
| 2015-03-14 | John Jackson Team Race | skipper | 3.66 | 3.09 | 8–6 | 9.7 | −0.57 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 2015-02-28 | Frank Mendleblatt Team Tace | skipper | 3.66 | 3.66 | 15–2 | 15.0 | +0.00 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2014-03-22 | Staake Trophy | skipper | 3.19 | 4.45 | 12–1 | 10.3 | +1.26 | 1.3 | 20% |
| 2014-03-08 | TR Invite | skipper | 2.76 | 3.70 | 11–5 | 8.1 | +0.94 | 1.9 | 9% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 10 | 6.2 | 3.90 |
| 81st Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 3 | 6.0 | 3.99 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's College of MD Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 17 | 11.4 | 2.83 |
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.9 | 2.73 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.0 | 4.17 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.1 | 3.51 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.2 | 3.71 |
| Coed Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.1 | 3.64 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.0 | 3.94 |
| 74th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.5 | 4.10 |
| 73rd Pine Trophy Keelboat | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.9 | 0.60 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| John Jackson Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Frank Mendleblatt Team Tace | Skipper | TR | 16 | 94% | — |
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 11 | 18% | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.5 | 3.39 |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.1 | 4.07 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Inter-Conference | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.5 | 4.37 |
| Phil Harman Cup Keelboat | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.2 | 2.12 |
| NE Match Racing Championship Keelboat | Skipper | A | 1 | 7.0 | — |
| Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 2 | 11.5 | 2.04 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 7.4 | 3.71 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 10.7 | 3.45 |
| 74th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.4 | 3.80 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| TR Invite | Skipper | TR | 20 | 75% | — |
| Staake Trophy | Skipper | TR | 23 | 70% | — |
| 70th Greater Boston Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 4.8 | 3.12 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.3 | 3.43 |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | C | 6 | 8.8 | 2.85 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| 71st Pine Trophy Keelboat | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.9 | 1.51 |
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 6 | 5.0 | 3.65 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 20 | 9.8 | 3.14 |
| 31st Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.0 | 3.06 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 9.6 | 3.07 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.3 | 2.64 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | A | 1 | 17.0 | — |
| 73rd Annual Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.6 | 3.33 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg @ BU by NU | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.2 | 3.18 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.8 | 2.81 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Crew | B | 8 | 8.5 | — |
| Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 4.1 | — |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.9 | 2.35 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.5 | 2.99 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 15 | 11.3 | 2.33 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.2 | 2.74 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
