Cary-Price Interconference Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Michigan University of Michigan Maize 15 10 25
2 Miami University Miami University Miami University 32 25 57
3 Denison University Denison University Big Red 37 34 71
4 Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 32 47 79
5 University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 49 35 84
6 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 45 59 104
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Michigan University of Michigan Maize 1 1 1 1 2 5 1 1 1 1 15 Ryan Seago '14 [1-4, 7-10]
Ryan Davidson '15 [5-6]
Elizabeth Wallace '15 [1-4, 7-10]
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 3 3 2 3 6 2 4 5 2 2 32 Grant Pollock '16
Megan Morris '17
Miami University Miami University Miami University 5 5 3 5 1 1 2 4 3 3 32 Stuart Fisher '16
Kelsey Loss '15
Denison University Denison University Big Red 4 2 4 4 4 4 5 2 4 4 37 Martijn Bosma '17
Ashtyn Hopkins '15
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 6 6 5 6 3 3 3 3 5 5 45 Emily Gazall '16
Alison Bradley '16
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 2 4 6 2 5 6 6 6 6 6 49 Nicole Hakim '15
Emily Slabe '15
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Michigan University of Michigan Maize 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 Thomas Etheridge '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Will Cyr '14 [3-4, 7-10]
David Oliver '14 [1-2, 5-6]
Miami University Miami University Miami University 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 4 3 2 25 Otto Wenzler '16
Madison Eger '16
Denison University Denison University Big Red 3 3 3 4 4 3 2 2 5 5 34 Tara Foster '14 [1-10]
Emily Shane '17 [1-8]
Nicolas Lyman '15 [9-10]
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 4 5 4 3 2 5 4 3 2 3 35 Charles Schloff '17 [1-10]
Charles Diamond '15 [1-8]
Haley Johnson '14 [9-10]
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 6 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 4 47 Davis Carroll '15
James Uraski '17
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 59 Abigail Rogers '16
Victoria Noble '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Denison UniversityDenison University Big Red1133551133
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini2244772244
Miami UniversityMiami University Miami University5511335511
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Maize4477224477
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines3355113355
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers7722447722

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Denison UniversityDenison University Big Red2244772244
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini3355113355
Miami UniversityMiami University Miami University7722447722
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Maize5511335511
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines4477224477
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers1133551133

Conditions — 10/05/2013 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 81%  ·  Pressure 1014.9 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 75°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.6 kn
avg  ·  max 7.5 kn
Gusts to 17.9 kn
From SSE (161°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine7.2 hrs Humidity81% Pressure1014.9 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 9 kn · S 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Michigan: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.18
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.42 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Michigan by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 12 labelled days at Michigan, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →