GW Team Race

HostGeorge Washington
Date03/07/2015
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatZ420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	16–4
2	George Washington University	Colonials	15–5
3	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	11–9
4	Cornell University	Big Red	9–11
5	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	8–12
6	Fordham University	Rams	1–19

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 4,322 team race matches sailed before 2015-03-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 41 of 60 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.646 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.50 ± 0.25: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 10% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	1	10.30 school +0.10	Elliott Morrill / Erica Oosterhoff 3.23 Eddie Cox / Haley Okun 3.09 Greiner Hobbs / Allison Aughtry	80%	16–4 (80%)	−0.1
2	George Washington University Colonials	2	9.75 school −0.29, home +0.30	Roger Dorr / Shira Golub 3.15 Brendan Shanahan / Miranda Bakos 3.14 Kai Friesecke / Isabel Strachan 3.17	71%	15–5 (75%)	+0.9
3	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	6	7.31 school −0.39	Zachary Hill / Caitlin Cummings 7–5 John Nothacker / Christopher Whalen 1.85 7–5 Austin Buonsignore / Matthew Romanuski 7–5 Zachary Hill / Christopher Whalen 4–4 John Nothacker / Matthew Romanuski 1.71 4–4 Nick Valente / Caitlin Cummings 3.35 4–4	17%	11–9 (55%)	+7.7
4	Cornell University Big Red	4	8.58 school +0.14	Duncan Howes / Claire Riedman 3.10 Connor Kelter / Laura Lee Alex Woloshyn / Julie Barbera 2.59	45%	9–11 (45%)	+0.1
5	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3	9.23 school +0.12	Addison Hackstaff / Molly Hanson 7–9 Michael Madigan / Michelle Katz 2.98 3–9 Jimmy Madigan / Brittany Webb-Martin 7–5 Gary Prieto / Brittany Webb-Martin 1–7 Gary Prieto / Michelle Katz 5–3 Michael Madigan / Molly Hanson 3.20 1–3	56%	8–12 (40%)	−3.3
6	Fordham University Rams	5	7.89 school +0.28	Anders Ekholm / Gabrielle Mascio Adelaide Ferguson / Katherine Jones Adam Keally / Johanna Monro 2.37	32%	1–19 (5%)	−5.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	SUNY Maritime College	7.31	9.32	11–9	3.3	+2.02	12.0	<1%
2	George Washington University	9.75	10.03	15–5	14.1	+0.28	0.2	42%
4	Cornell University	8.58	8.60	9–11	8.9	+0.02	0.0	58%
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	10.30	10.28	16–4	16.1	−0.02	0.0	64%
5	U. S. Naval Academy	9.23	8.46	8–12	11.3	−0.76	1.8	97%
6	Fordham University	7.89	5.18	1–19	6.3	−2.72	8.3	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Austin Buonsignore	SUNY Maritime College	1.67	4.10	7–5	1.6	+2.43	10.4	<1%
Zachary Hill	SUNY Maritime College	3.01	5.03	11–9	3.3	+2.02	12.0	<1%
John Nothacker	SUNY Maritime College	1.85	3.87	11–9	3.3	+2.02	12.0	<1%
Nick Valente	SUNY Maritime College	3.35	4.76	4–4	1.7	+1.41	2.5	6%
Brendan Shanahan	George Washington University	3.14	3.42	15–5	14.1	+0.28	0.2	42%
Jimmy Madigan	U. S. Naval Academy	2.51	2.60	7–5	6.8	+0.09	0.0	58%
Duncan Howes	Cornell University	3.10	3.12	9–11	8.9	+0.02	0.0	58%
Connor Kelter	Cornell University	2.35	2.37	9–11	8.9	+0.02	0.0	58%
Alex Woloshyn	Cornell University	2.59	2.62	9–11	8.9	+0.02	0.0	58%
Elliott Morrill	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.23	3.21	16–4	16.1	−0.02	0.0	64%
Eddie Cox	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.09	3.07	16–4	16.1	−0.02	0.0	64%
Addison Hackstaff	U. S. Naval Academy	3.04	2.59	7–9	8.5	−0.46	0.5	87%
Gary Prieto	U. S. Naval Academy	2.60	1.44	6–10	10.2	−1.16	3.6	99%
Michael Madigan	U. S. Naval Academy	2.98	1.67	4–12	8.3	−1.31	3.9	>99%
Anders Ekholm	Fordham University	1.84	-0.87	1–19	6.3	−2.72	8.3	>99%
Adelaide Ferguson	Fordham University	2.67	-0.05	1–19	6.3	−2.72	8.3	>99%
Adam Keally	Fordham University	2.37	-0.35	1–19	6.3	−2.72	8.3	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	George Washington University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	42%	upset
1	2	SUNY Maritime College	Fordham University	27%	upset
1	3	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	36%	upset
1	4	George Washington University	Fordham University	90%
1	5	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	24%	upset
1	6	SUNY Maritime College	Cornell University	12%	upset
1	7	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	75%
1	8	George Washington University	SUNY Maritime College	96%
1	9	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Cornell University	84%
1	10	SUNY Maritime College	U. S. Naval Academy	35%	upset
1	11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	92%
1	12	George Washington University	Cornell University	77%
1	13	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	88%
1	14	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	60%
1	15	Cornell University	Fordham University	68%
2	16	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	63%
2	17	SUNY Maritime College	Fordham University	23%	upset
2	18	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	69%
2	19	George Washington University	Fordham University	87%
2	20	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	74%
2	21	Cornell University	SUNY Maritime College	87%
2	22	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	75%
2	23	George Washington University	SUNY Maritime College	96%
2	24	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Cornell University	85%
2	25	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	68%
2	26	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	92%
2	27	Cornell University	George Washington University	24%	upset
2	28	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	88%
2	29	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	57%
2	30	Cornell University	Fordham University	66%
3	31	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	64%
3	32	SUNY Maritime College	Fordham University	22%	upset
3	33	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	29%	upset
3	34	George Washington University	Fordham University	86%
3	35	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	27%	upset
3	36	SUNY Maritime College	Cornell University	13%	upset
3	37	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	76%
3	38	George Washington University	SUNY Maritime College	95%
3	39	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Cornell University	85%
3	40	SUNY Maritime College	U. S. Naval Academy	30%	upset
3	41	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	91%
3	42	George Washington University	Cornell University	76%
3	43	SUNY Maritime College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	11%	upset
3	44	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	56%
3	45	Cornell University	Fordham University	64%
4	46	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	65%
4	47	SUNY Maritime College	Fordham University	22%	upset
4	48	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	28%	upset
4	49	Fordham University	George Washington University	15%	upset
4	50	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	73%
4	51	SUNY Maritime College	Cornell University	13%	upset
4	52	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	76%
4	53	George Washington University	SUNY Maritime College	95%
4	54	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Cornell University	85%
4	55	SUNY Maritime College	U. S. Naval Academy	29%	upset
4	56	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	91%
4	57	George Washington University	Cornell University	76%
4	58	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	89%
4	59	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	55%
4	60	Cornell University	Fordham University	63%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Statesmen	Colonials	Privateers	Red	Midshipmen	Rams
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3–2	✕	L	W	W	L	W
George Washington University Colonials	5–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–3	W	L	L	L	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Statesmen	Colonials	Privateers	Red	Midshipmen	Rams
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	3–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	1–4	L	L	✕	L	L	W
Cornell University Big Red	3–2	L	W	W	✕	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–2	L	L	W	W	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Statesmen	Colonials	Privateers	Red	Midshipmen	Rams
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3–2	✕	W	L	W	L	W
George Washington University Colonials	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	4–1	W	L	✕	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–3	W	L	L	L	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Statesmen	Colonials	Privateers	Red	Midshipmen	Rams
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	3–2	L	✕	W	W	W	L
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	1–4	L	W	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
2	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
3	Big Red	1-3-6	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-5
4	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
5	Midshipmen	1-4-5	def.	Statesmen	2-3-6
6	Privateers	1-3-6	def.	Big Red	2-4-5
7	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
8	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
9	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
10	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
11	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
12	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
13	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
14	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
15	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
16	Statesmen	2-3-5	def.	Colonials	1-4-6
17	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
18	Midshipmen	1-3-6	def.	Big Red	2-4-5
19	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
20	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
21	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
22	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
23	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
24	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
25	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
26	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
27	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
28	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
29	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
30	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
31	Statesmen	1-3-5	def.	Colonials	2-4-6
32	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
33	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
34	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
35	Midshipmen	1-3-6	def.	Statesmen	2-4-5
36	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
37	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
38	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
39	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
40	Privateers	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
41	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
42	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
43	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
44	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
45	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
46	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
47	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
48	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
49	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
50	Statesmen	1-3-6	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-5
51	Privateers	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
52	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
53	Colonials	1-3-5	def.	Privateers	2-4-6
54	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
55	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
56	Statesmen	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
57	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
58	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
59	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
60	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Eddie Cox '16 Elliott Morrill '15 Greiner Hobbs '18	Haley Okun '18 Erica Oosterhoff '18 Allison Aughtry '16
George Washington University	Colonials	Brendan Shanahan '17 Kai Friesecke '18 Roger Dorr '18	Miranda Bakos '18 Isabel Strachan '18 Shira Golub '18
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Austin Buonsignore '16 John Nothacker '16 Nick Valente '16 Zachary Hill '18	Matthew Romanuski '16 Christopher Whalen '15 Caitlin Cummings '18
Cornell University	Big Red	Alex Woloshyn '17 Connor Kelter '18 Duncan Howes '15	Julie Barbera '17 Laura Lee '18 Claire Riedman '16
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Addison Hackstaff '18 Gary Prieto '18 Jimmy Madigan '18 Michael Madigan '17	Molly Hanson '17 Brittany Webb-Martin '18 Michelle Katz '18
Fordham University	Rams	Adam Keally '15 Adelaide Ferguson '17 Anders Ekholm '17	Johanna Monro '16 Katherine Jones '18 Gabrielle Mascio '18

Conditions — 03/07/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 51% · Pressure 1024.7 hPa

Temperature

32°F

↑ 44°F ↓ 4°F

Feels like 23°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.6 kn

avg · max 8.6 kn

Gusts to 17.9 kn

From SW (218°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover23% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1024.7 hPa

What this breeze does at George Washington — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at George Washington in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at George Washington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at George Washington, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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