George Washington University '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.74 (fleet 2.41) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 9–10 (47%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 3–1 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 6–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (4 matches) the record is 3–1 against 2.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-29 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 1.52 | 2.84 | 3–1 | 2.3 | +1.32 | 0.6 | 41% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Robert P. Arrigan Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 15 | 8.1 | -0.49 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.6 | 2.15 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.5 | 2.34 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 7 | 11.7 | 1.25 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.8 | 2.83 |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.8 | 2.16 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Webb Regatta | Skipper | A | 16 | 4.5 | 0.75 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.1 | 2.01 |
| Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.1 | 1.33 |
| Central Fall #2 | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.6 | 1.24 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Pirate 3on3 team racing | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Owen / Mosbacher / Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 17 | 11.7 | 1.45 |
| ODU Spring Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.6 | 1.38 |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.5 | 1.48 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| South #1 | Skipper | B | 2 | 9.0 | 0.56 |
| Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.3 | 1.01 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 16 | 13.6 | 0.38 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
