Central Fall #2

HostWashington College
Date10/19/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	34	35	69
2	Ocean County College	Vikings	50	35	85
3	George Washington University	Colonials 2	52	80	132
4	Monmouth University	Monmouth	49	89	138
5	Christopher Newport University	Captains	80	63	143
6	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	98	50	148
7	Drexel University	Dragons	90	67	157
8	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	97	105	202
9	Stevens Institute of Technology	Ducks	107	109	216
10	George Washington University	Colonials 1	103	126	229
11	Villanova University	Wildcats	112	133	245
12	Princeton University	Tigers	109	141	250
13	Penn State University	Nittany Lions	154	104	258
14	Washington College	Shoremen	121	143	264
15	Columbia University	Lions	181	160	341
16	Rutgers University	Rutgers	172	191	363

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	5	1	3	1	12	1	2	3	1	1	2	2	34	Benjamin Garber '17 Grace Mcdougall '16
Monmouth University	Monmouth	2	7	5	3	5	4	5	1	5	BKD	7	1	49	Paul Stevens '14 [1-12] Alissa Ridarick '14 [1-6] Lauren Cane '14 [7-12]
Ocean County College	Vikings	1	3	1	2	6	8	1	4	8	6	1	9	50	Charles Nunn '16 Sarah Scheidt '17
George Washington University	Colonials 2	7	5	9	5	3	2	BKD	2	7	2	3	3	52	Brendan Shanahan '17 Gabriella Malek '17
Christopher Newport University	Captains	3	8	8	9	7	9	4	9	3	3	11	6	80	Austin Powers '17 Katie Padgett '17
Drexel University	Dragons	4	12	7	10	10	7	8	8	2	5	4	13	90	Joan Boyle '14 Tracy Venella '16
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	13	4	11	6	4	11	7	11	6	4	10	10	97	Joe Farned '17 Christina Atterbury '15
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	11	2	12	4	8	5	9	10	12	9	12	4	98	Spencer Nora '17 Julie Miller '15
George Washington University	Colonials 1	10	6	4	7	9	3	11	7	15	12	5	14	103	Jay Spector '16 Henry Young '16
Stevens Institute of Technology	Ducks	8	14	10	11	1	12	3	DSQ	4	10	6	11	107	Nicolas Carabelli '17 Thomas Hickey '18
Princeton University	Tigers	12	11	2	13	2	6	14	6	9	13	9	12	109	Andrew Grasso '15 [1-12] Elizabeth Sipp '16 [1-10] Amanda Mitchell '14 [11-12]
Villanova University	Wildcats	6	10	13	8	13	14	13	5	10	7	8	5	112	Scott Barnhill '14 William Whelan '17
Washington College	Shoremen	9	9	6	12	11	10	6	12	11	14	14	7	121	Hannah Schmidt '17 Siobhan Ryan '16
Penn State University	Nittany Lions	14	13	14	14	15	13	12	13	14	11	13	8	154	John Shanahan '16 Vasu Gaur '17
Rutgers University	Rutgers	15	15	15	15	14	15	15	14	16	8	15	15	172	Mary Morgan '15 Artem Titoulenko '13
Columbia University	Lions	16	16	16	16	16	16	10	15	13	15	16	16	181	Brian Fischman '15 [1-4] Yuval Millet '16 [5-12] Yuval Millet '16 [1-4] Brian Fischman '15 [5-12]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	2	1	BKD	1	1	2	2	8	1	10	2	2	35	Kyle Burgess '17 Julia Monro '17
Ocean County College	Vikings	7	2	1	2	2	1	4	1	4	1	4	6	35	Zachary Schippe '14 Mary Elizabeth '16
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	1	3	2	6	5	6	11	4	5	3	3	1	50	Hannah Hughes '17 Molly Hanson '17
Christopher Newport University	Captains	3	14	3	3	4	5	3	5	8	5	5	5	63	Annie Eckmann '14 [1-12] Laura Kilgore '17 [1-2, 6-7, 10-12] Julia Davis '16 [3-5, 8-9]
Drexel University	Dragons	6	10	4	5	7	3	1	2	12	4	9	4	67	Chris Myers '15 Barrett Adams '17
George Washington University	Colonials 2	9	11	7	4	3	10	13	10	2	2	1	8	80	Benjaim Helfand '16 Shuqi Dong '17
Monmouth University	Monmouth	4	7	9	9	6	4	5	3	6	11	10	15	89	Brogan Savage '15 [1-12] Courtney Brooks '16 [1-6] Amanda Nuse '17 [7-12]
Penn State University	Nittany Lions	5	8	6	13	DSQ	8	12	12	3	9	8	3	104	Can Akdurak '17 Natalie Dapas '14
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	12	6	11	10	11	7	6	7	10	7	11	7	105	Maxwell Ryder '16 Steven Ho '16
Stevens Institute of Technology	Ducks	8	9	10	8	9	14	8	9	9	6	7	12	109	Meredith Foor '18 Andrew Daponte '14
George Washington University	Colonials 1	13	5	8	14	12	11	14	6	7	12	13	11	126	Elias Mattson '14 Gabriella Marki '17
Villanova University	Wildcats	11	4	12	12	10	9	15	11	11	13	15	10	133	Casey Jackson '17 [1-8] Meghan Joumas '17 [9-10] Julianna Lee '17 [11-12] Julianna Lee '17 [1-10] Casey Jackson '17 [11-12]
Princeton University	Tigers	10	13	13	7	8	13	10	14	14	14	12	13	141	Adrija Navarro '15 [1-12] Michael Moorin '16 [1-5, 11-12] Malcolm Steinberg '17 [6-10]
Washington College	Shoremen	14	15	14	11	14	12	9	13	13	8	6	14	143	Mason Sheen '17 Blair Towers '15
Columbia University	Lions	15	12	15	15	13	15	7	15	15	15	14	9	160	Gregory Rempe '16 Anna Knight '16
Rutgers University	Rutgers	16	16	16	16	15	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	191	Taylor Niles '17 [1-12] Zach Dalton '16 [1, 3, 5, 7, 9] Max Reo '16 [2, 4, 6, 8, 10-12]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.110+0.11

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A
Christopher Newport University Captains	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
Columbia University Lions	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7
Drexel University Dragons	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
George Washington University Colonials 1	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9
George Washington University Colonials 2	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
Monmouth University Monmouth	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
Ocean County College Vikings	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13
Penn State University Nittany Lions	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	14	14	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2	3	3
Princeton University Tigers	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14
Rutgers University Rutgers	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	1	1
Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2
Villanova University Wildcats	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4
Washington College Shoremen	16	16	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B
Christopher Newport University Captains	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
Columbia University Lions	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7
Drexel University Dragons	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
George Washington University Colonials 1	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9
George Washington University Colonials 2	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
Monmouth University Monmouth	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
Ocean County College Vikings	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13
Penn State University Nittany Lions	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	14	14	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2	3	3
Princeton University Tigers	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14
Rutgers University Rutgers	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	1	1
Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2
Villanova University Wildcats	15	15	16	16	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4
Washington College Shoremen	16	16	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Christopher Newport University	Austin Powers '17	Katie Padgett '17
Captains	Annie Eckmann '14 [1-12]	Laura Kilgore '17 [1-2, 6-7, 10-12] Julia Davis '16 [3-5, 8-9]
Columbia University	Brian Fischman '15 [1-4] Yuval Millet '16 [5-12]	Yuval Millet '16 [1-4] Brian Fischman '15 [5-12]
Lions	Gregory Rempe '16	Anna Knight '16
Drexel University	Joan Boyle '14	Tracy Venella '16
Dragons	Chris Myers '15	Barrett Adams '17
George Washington University	Jay Spector '16	Henry Young '16
Colonials 1	Elias Mattson '14	Gabriella Marki '17
George Washington University	Brendan Shanahan '17	Gabriella Malek '17
Colonials 2	Benjaim Helfand '16	Shuqi Dong '17
Monmouth University	Paul Stevens '14 [1-12]	Alissa Ridarick '14 [1-6] Lauren Cane '14 [7-12]
Monmouth	Brogan Savage '15 [1-12]	Courtney Brooks '16 [1-6] Amanda Nuse '17 [7-12]
Ocean County College	Charles Nunn '16	Sarah Scheidt '17
Vikings	Zachary Schippe '14	Mary Elizabeth '16
Penn State University	John Shanahan '16	Vasu Gaur '17
Nittany Lions	Can Akdurak '17	Natalie Dapas '14
Princeton University	Andrew Grasso '15 [1-12]	Elizabeth Sipp '16 [1-10] Amanda Mitchell '14 [11-12]
Tigers	Adrija Navarro '15 [1-12]	Michael Moorin '16 [1-5, 11-12] Malcolm Steinberg '17 [6-10]
Rutgers University	Mary Morgan '15	Artem Titoulenko '13
Rutgers	Taylor Niles '17 [1-12]	Zach Dalton '16 [1, 3, 5, 7, 9] Max Reo '16 [2, 4, 6, 8, 10-12]
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Benjamin Garber '17	Grace Mcdougall '16
Seahawks	Kyle Burgess '17	Julia Monro '17
Stevens Institute of Technology	Nicolas Carabelli '17	Thomas Hickey '18
Ducks	Meredith Foor '18	Andrew Daponte '14
U. S. Naval Academy	Spencer Nora '17	Julie Miller '15
Midshipmen	Hannah Hughes '17	Molly Hanson '17
University of Pennsylvania	Joe Farned '17	Christina Atterbury '15
Quakers	Maxwell Ryder '16	Steven Ho '16
Villanova University	Scott Barnhill '14	William Whelan '17
Wildcats	Casey Jackson '17 [1-8] Meghan Joumas '17 [9-10] Julianna Lee '17 [11-12]	Julianna Lee '17 [1-10] Casey Jackson '17 [11-12]
Washington College	Hannah Schmidt '17	Siobhan Ryan '16
Shoremen	Mason Sheen '17	Blair Towers '15

Conditions — 10/19/2013 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 64% · Pressure 1012.4 hPa

Temperature

61°F

↑ 64°F ↓ 56°F

Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.6 kn

avg · max 7.6 kn

Gusts to 16.5 kn

From SSE (156°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine4.9 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1012.4 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 7 kn · NW 7 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Washington College: a favourites’ day (+0.04)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.12 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Washington College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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