Hampton University '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.18 (fleet -0.25) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–29 (6%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 2–14 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 0–15 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (16 matches) the record is 2–14 against 1.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-26 | MAISA/SAISA | skipper | 0.23 | 0.79 | 2–14 | 1.3 | +0.56 | 0.3 | 38% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | TR | 16 | 12% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.4 | -0.45 |
| Colony Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.2 | -0.64 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.9 | -0.64 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Edward Teach Memorial | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.3 | — |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Pirate 3on3 team racing | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| ODU Spring Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 14.0 | -0.89 |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.9 | -0.79 |
| Leroy Grant Regatta | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.1 | -0.78 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Webb Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.8 | -0.52 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 12 | 15.2 | -1.35 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 13 | 17.8 | -2.54 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
